NBA Preview - Western Conference - Southwest Division

September 22, 2006 - The NBA's Southwest division has been dominated by the San Antonio Spurs. However, since Avery Johnson's arrival in Dallas, the Mavericks have been threatening the Spurs' divisional dominance. The Mavericks' ability to spread the court and their deep bench poses a problem for the 3-time NBA Champion Spurs. But while these two teams will battle it out for first place, 3rd place is going to be wide open this year. With Houston expected to be better than last year, and with Chris Paul's continuing emergence in New Orleans, the race for 3rd in the Southwest is going to be extremely fascinating. If these three teams do not knock each and everyone of each other out of the playoff race, the team that finishes in 3rd can and should make the playoffs. Houston has the most ground to make up after going 1-15 in the division. New Orleans may have finished 9 games back of Memphis but had a better record within the division. And Memphis is a constant playoff team that loses few games at home.

1. San Antonio Spurs - Don't worry Spurs' fans. San Antonio will run this division once again. The Spurs won this division by 3 games last year, and they boasted a 13-3 divisional record. The Spurs are just too good for even the reigning Western Conference Champions to be considered the favorite over them. They had an average point differential of +6.8 points per game. That was tops in all of the NBA. The loss of Nazr Mohammed was offset by the acquisition of Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler. The Spurs were hurt by small ball in the playoffs and thus they made some acquisitions to hopefully counter that. However, the Spurs win their games down low with Tim Duncan, and as long as he is on this team, you can automatically check off the Spurs as going to at least the 2nd round. But the really scary thing about this team is that the Spurs have their big 3 (Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker) locked up, and nobody else is under contract 2 seasons from now. Which means this team will have plenty of money to spend and build around those superstars in 2008.

2. Dallas Mavericks - Dallas brought in Austin Croshere, Anthony Johnson, Devean George and Greg Buckner. Thereby solidifying a bench that was torched in the NBA Finals. The focus on the season has to be Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse, because Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard are already going to perform. Terry has to be more consistent and he has to be able to off-set guard play more since he cannot play defense. Stackhouse, already a big scorer, is going to have to bring more to the game than a post up presence and a decent outside shot. He has to be able draw double teams and play defense if he wants to be a great off the bench player. I think if those two players can achieve the aforementioned, then the Mavs will be a better team this year. However, Stack and Terry do have to come through.

3. Houston Rockets - A lot of people have maligned Tracy McGrady's performance since his arrival in Houston. However, we saw the dramatic effect his injury had on the Rocket's season, and it was not good. With T-Mac coming back, the Rockets should be a formidable opponent and a playoff contender. I suspect that T-Mac can come back and resurrect a team that was void of scoring and who only won one game in the division. I pick them to finish in 3rd over the Grizzlies because they will be able to beat San Antonio and Dallas 2 or 3 times more than the Grizzlies because of T-Mac's ability to take over a game. Also, the acquisition of Shane Battier was a beautiful move by the Rockets. He can play defense and shoot the outside shot. And in 31 games, Yao Ming showed that he can dominate a game and have a "Shaq-like" effect in the paint, at least on the offensive end of the court. So if Yao and T-Mac deliver, this team will be in the playoffs.

4. Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are a great team. They got the 5th seed last season and were ousted by a more talented team. This year though, they will not make the playoffs. Pau Gasol's foot injury stands to be a big problem for Memphis going into the season, and any games that his injury cost the team will effect the team greatly. Their only major addition was Rudy Gay (a rookie) and they lost Shane Battier. I'm not sure that the Grizzlies will be able to overcome their meager off-season and Gasol's injury. Thus they will miss the playoffs.

5. New Orleans Hornets - While the Hornets made big moves, I just do not think that there is enough fire power on this team to contend in this division. Despite being only one win away from going .500 in the division, I think it is unlikely they can dominate Houston and Memphis like they did last season. Peja Stojakovic was a huge signing, but at $62.6 million for 5 years they certainly over spent. Afterall, he is coming off of an injury. However, Peja really could benefit from Chris Paul's style of play and he will be a huge addition in terms of leadership. The Hornets also picked up Tyson Chandler and Bobby Jackson, both who can add to the defensive and offensive ends, respectively.
-Uzo Ometu