NBA Salary Cap, Free-Agency, and LeBron

The landscape of the NBA will change for sure. LeBron, Bosh, Wade, all figure to make out like bandits. If they are bandits, somebody is being robbed. Lets try to figure out who is having their pockets picked clean.

Teams have been dropping salary to maneuver into better position for the free-agent sweepstakes. Miami, New York, and Chicago, all seem poised to make major moves. Let us imagine for a minute that the major free-agents stay put. It seems unlikely, but is possible. Before the NBA playoffs began, LeBron and Wade were said to be happy at their current jobs. Bosh was, and still is a wild card. Dirk and Paul Pierce were going to finish their careers, with the teams that they have been the face of for years. What happened!

Now if LeBron and Wade stay put, many teams will have to scramble, just to put a roster together. South Beach will attract a Bosh or Stoudemire, but won't be a dynasty. The Knicks will have to pray that some good, second tier, free agents want to play for them, knowing a title is far away. Chicago will still have a young nucleus to build around, but will have trouble getting a team like MJ played on. LeBron was the only person who could turn Chicago back into a dynasty. Cavaliers will add someone to help the King, but won't be unbeatable. The winners of free-agency will be the established teams, who didn't fall for the free-agent hype. The Lakers and Celtics will both be solid, [depending if Pierce and Allen are taken care of] challenging for another title.

What happens if LeBron and Chris Bosh join D Wade in Miami? This will kill the competitive balance in the NBA. The majority of teams will scramble, just to become competitive. The smart general managers will do just enough to keep fans appeased. They will know the NBA title is unattainable. Teams like Phoenix and San Antonio, will begin to rebuild, searching out younger talent, in the hopes of contending down the road. Teams that made all the cap space for the marquee names, will be the biggest losers. New Jersey and the Knicks; will be faced with the dark reality of having to pay max salary's to good players, and not great ones. Maybe one other team besides the Lakers, will be a legitimate contender, depending where the Joe Johnson's and Carlos Boozer's fall.

Another scenario could have all the big names going separate ways. This is what the commissioner probably thought would happen. LeBron could go to the Knicks, or Nets. Wade and the rest of the star free-agents will disperse all over. LeBron would still need help to become a champion. Either team will be able to afford one more solid star. That probably wont bet enough. Whatever team spends 34 million on two stars, will have a weak bench. That's the economics of a salary cap. Big salaried stars, will have low salary teammates.

Paul Pierce has opted out of a 21 million dollar contract. Somebody must think that Pierce was the NBA finals MVP this year. I thought Kobe was. Pierce isn't a franchise player anymore. He can help a team, if Pierce can stay healthy. Boston was the ideal place for him. He will probably hold the Celtics hostage for more cash. Boston may decide to rebuild around Rondo. Pierce and Allen can give Boston room to bring in players. What everybody forgets is that trades are going to start happening, as soon as LeBron decides on a team. The fans will need a year, just to sort out new rosters. General managers have become the most important players on the teams.

No matter what happens, the fan will lose. Cavalier fans have the most to lose, but if the King stays home, Cav's win. Whoever lands LeBron, will increase their franchises worth, by millions of dollars. Many other teams will suffer at the gates. The NBA will have teams losing money, not being competitive. Ticket prices increase every year. I don't see New York or New Jersey, reducing prices, because their team stinks. We realize our team is going to lose three quarter of our games, so the tickets will be half price, until Donnie Walsh gets his head out of his rear. I'll be shocked if Knick fans hear that.

The 2010 free-agents will get paid, the top ones anyway. The future free-agents may suffer from this. I am sure that the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, will somehow take power away from the players. David Stern doesn't want a dynasty. He will change the rules, to assure parity throughout the league. That is what the salary cap was supposed to do. It wasn't put in place for executives, to throw seasons away, making room for future free-agents. A rule will soon be made to correct this. The salary cap is a work in progress. This year just has a really big kink in it.

Average players face the most peril. Superstars will get the money they want. Somebody will always take a star player, even if only to sell tickets. The youngsters, making league low salaries, are also safe. These players are playing cheap, if you call millions cheap, working for the day that they become the star free-agent. The peril lies with the average NBA player. The guy that does the dirty work. His stat sheet reads 7 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. These players will be dropped, making cap space, being replaced by players who may not be as good, but fit the salary cap. These players will have their bargaining power greatly reduced, not from their play, but by the system. This type of player will have to take a cut in pay, just to stay in the league. Maybe LeBron can subsidize these players.

I don't blame star players for making crazy money. Given the chance, most of us would do the same. I do not agree with the talked about, free-agent summit talks, that have been rumored. Free-Agency should be a player making a decision, on what he believes is best for him, and his family. It shouldn't be a player or players, planning on their own dynasty. If the best players all want to play on the same team, let it be for free, representing their country. The NBA is facing a defining period. If the King wants a crown, I hope he wins it on the court, and not in the off-season!

Resources: www.nbauniverse.com sports.espn.go.com