NBA Southwest Division Preview 2006-2007

The Southwest Division race went down to the wire, as San Antonio held off Dallas for the crown. As a reward, San Antonio received home-court advantage for their second-round playoff matchup, but Dallas edged the Spurs 4 games to 3 en route to a heart-breaking loss in the NBA Finals.

Now, both the Mavs and Spurs look to rebound from disappointing post-seasons while New Orleans, Houston, and Memphis look to challenge them for division supremacy. Most observers see the Spurs and Mavs as the dominant Southwest teams, but they may face a challenge from the division's rising stars.

Dallas Mavericks
2005-06 Results: 60-22, 2nd Place in Southwest Division, Lost to Miami in NBA Finals

How will they respond? That's the question on everyone's mind, as Dallas had a summer to think about a two-game lead squandered in the NBA Finals against Miami. GM Donnie Nelson responded by upgrading the bench, adding Austin Croshere and Anthony Johnson via trades and former Laker Devean George and Greg Buckner via free agency.

The starting five returns intact for the Mavs, including Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki, both of whom signed extensions in the off-season (Terry was eligible for free agency). Head coach Avery Johnson has looked like a winner in his one-plus seasons on the bench, and he must gather Dallas together emotionally to make another run at a championship.

Nelson's moves to strengthen the bench should help Dallas over the course of the season, and gives them a slight edge over San Antonio on paper. If the Mavs can erase the demons from last season - and they should - they have to be considered the favorite in the West.

Projected Finish: First

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
2005-06 Results: 38-44, 4th Place in Southwest Division

The Hornets had a busy off-season, acquiring Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson, and former Bull Tyson Chandler, along with first-round draft picks Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons. The additions to a team that somehow started 31-25 last season and featured Rookie of the Year Chris Paul have fans in New Orleans and Oklahoma City buzzing (no pun intended, honestly).

Indeed, the Hornets have to be considered playoff contenders. Chandler, Armstrong, and Simmons provide frontcourt depth, and Chandler in particular should enjoy playing with Paul. Chandler is an athletic big man who needs help to score in the paint, and Paul's penetration may be just the boost to finally turn Chandler into a double-digit scorer. Armstrong and Chandler are prolific shot-blockers as well, and should improve New Orleans' defense, which ranked 21st in opposition field goal percentage a year ago.

If small forward Desmond Mason can bounce back from his worst season as a pro (10.8 ppg, horrific 39.9 field goal percentage), New Orleans will have a bounty of scoring options and one of the NBA's best pure point guards in Paul. With an improved defense, New Orleans should be thinking playoffs even in the crowded Western Conference.

Projected Finish: Second

San Antonio Spurs
2005-06 Results: 63-19, 1st Place in Southwest Division, Lost to Dallas in Western Conference Semifinals

The Spurs have averaged nearly 60 wins a game over the past five seasons, remarkable consistency in today's NBA. This year, playing in what may become the league's toughest division, another 60-win season may be tough. The Spurs had a quiet off-season, replacing C Nazr Mohammed (Detroit) with reserves Jackie Butler and Francisco Elson, giving head coach Gregg Popovich a three-man, eighteen-foul rotation at center (counting incumbent Fabricio Oberto).

One has to wonder how long the Spurs can continue their success. Tim Duncan's numbers have dropped off the last few seasons (his 18.6 ppg in 2005-06 were a career low), defensive stopper Bruce Bowen is 35, and one wonders if the constant flow of playoffs and international play will wear on San Antonio's multinational roster, in particular guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

It's not necessarily that this season will be a 30-win season for the Spurs; it simply seems there are more danger signs than at any time during their run of excellence. With the Mavs trying to overtake them, Houston stocked with talent, and New Orleans coming on strong, it seems like time for San Antonio to step aside - for one season, anyway.

Projected Finish: Third

Houston Rockets
2005-06 Results: 34-48, 5th Place in Southwest Division

Yes, they signed Bonzi Wells, and yes, it's a good move for the Rockets; but hold on a minute. Wells has missed 53 games over the past three seasons and averaged about 12 points a game over that span. Wells will be a capable sixth man when healthy, but his health is not the Rockets' main concern.

Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady played just 31 games together a year ago (according to ESPN.com); they were 21-10 in those games, according to the Houston Chronicle. But can they stay healthy? If not, the Rockets will struggle, because they have little depth. Besides Wells, the Rockets' scoring off the bench is limited to second-year guard Luther Head and rookie Steve Novak, neither of whom have proven to be consistent scorers.

Houston's defense was excellent a year ago (2nd in the league in opposition field goal percentage), and a repeat of that performance, plus big years from Yao and McGrady can elevate the Rockets back to 50-win status. But their lack of depth and poor outside shooting (they finished 27th in the NBA in 3-point accuracy last year) could push them back into the Southwest basement. The smart money splits the difference and looks for the Rockets to stay on the fringe of playoff contention, and maybe sneak into the 7th or 8th position in the West.

Projected Finish: Fourth

Memphis Grizzlies
2005-06 Results: 49-33, 3rd Place in Southwest Division, Lost to Dallas in Western Conference 1st Round

Another promising season ended painfully for the Grizzlies, as a first-round sweep by Dallas left their all-time playoff record at a miserable 0-12. The off-season wasn't much better, as star Pau Gasol broke his foot at the Worlds and will be out until at least December.

Gasol's injury was a shame because the Grizzlies had a decent off-season. They moved small forward Shane Battier to Houston for Stromile Swift and first-rounder Rudy Gay, while also adding first-round pick Kyle Lowry from Villanova. Now, without Gasol, the Grizzlies look to struggle, particularly early. The Grizzlies get Detroit, Phoenix, the Lakers, Kings, and Mavericks, all on the road, in their first nine games.

Memphis has to be concerned at guard, where Damon Stoudamire, Eddie Jones, Dahntay Jones, and Chucky Atkins make a weak group. Too old, too slow, and not nearly explosive enough, the Grizzlies' guards simply won't be able to keep up the offensive pace. The addition of Swift provides frontcourt depth, but unless rookies Gay and Lowry can contribute early and often, Memphis' offense will struggle.

Given that the departed Battier was the glue of Memphis' top-ranked defense (in terms of points allowed), Memphis will need offensive improvement in 2006-2007. With Gasol out for close to half the year, at best, it doesn't seem likely. The Grizzlies will fall to the bottom of a talented division.

Projected Finish: Fifth