NBA Summer Outlook; Southeast Division

Although there are still a few months left in the regular season of the 2007-08 NBA season, it is never too early to look ahead into the summer. Many teams, at this point, have already given up on postseason chances are looking to turn around their fortunes with good draft picks and free agent signings. Because draft positions and declaring college athletes are not final yet, this article will focus solely on the latter aspect of the off-season.

Before the team-by-team analysis can begin, a key assumpion must first be made; what the salary cap for the 2008-09 season will be. By averaging the increases in the salary cap over the past five years, we can estimate this number to be about $58.7 million dollars. Teams over this amount will not be able to offer free agents more than the mid-level exception, about five million dollars per season, without a sign-and-trade. Of course, the Larry Bird rule allows every team to resign their own players no matter what the salary situation is.

In the Eastern Conference, there are few teams with realistic championship hopes at this point in the season. Boston, Detroit, and maybe Cleveland are the only three that have a shot at beating a Western Conference powerhouse in the Finals. The worst division in the East is the Southeast, as it features only one team, as of now, with a winning record. Thus, that is where this six-part series will begin.

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

Current Salary - $55,247,635

Summer Salary - $51,022,507

The Hawks made their biggest move in a while by landing Mike Bibby before the trade deadline this season. They will retain his services for one more season and undoubtedly will do their best to make a playoff run next year. Unfortunately, the team has little wiggle room to add additional superstars. In addition to only being seven million under the projected 2008-09 salary cap, Atlanta also has to spend money to keep budding superstar Josh Smith.

Key Free Agents

• Josh Smith - Smith has developed into one of the best small forwards in the league in his first four seasons with Atlanta. His scoring has increased with every season and his all-around defensive contributions season-in and season-out cannot go unnoticed. As a restricted free agent, Smith will be able to find offers from other teams. And at the ripe age of twenty-two, expect him to get a lot of looks. If Atlanta wants to keep him, they're going to have to dish out fourteen to fifteen million a season.
• Josh Childress - Unlike Smith, Childress never developed into an elite player and most likely never will. He is a good bench player to have, but may cost too much for the Hawks to keep. In any case, what Atlanta needs is a cheaper, more experienced option backing up Smith.
• Salim Stoudamire - His production and minutes have gone down every season since he was drafted and at this point it seems as if the Hawks are going to let him go. Salim is a good three-point threat and should find a home somewhere else in the NBA.

Areas of Need - The Hawks frontcourt is one of the youngest in the NBA. Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress are all good players, but none have the experience needed to lead a team through the brutal eighty-two game NBA season. The possibility of Childress leaving opens up a spot for a veteran presence and that is exactly what the Hawks need.

Other Notes - Atlanta does not have a first round pick in the draft this summer. They traded the selection away to Phoenix for Joe Johnson in the sign-and-trade that occurred a few seasons ago.

Future Outlook - A couple of key additions and continued improvement from Smith and Horford should have the Hawks in the playoffs next season.

Charlotte Bobcats

Current Salary - $53,253,936

Summer Salary - $39,802,700

The Bobcats are another Southeast team that made a big move this last season, trading for Jason Richardson during the draft. But the trade hasn't, to this point, helped the team as they perhaps had expected it to. The Bobcats are still far from a playoff contender. And while their projected salary seems to indicate a good amount of space to acquire new talent, the team has to first resign their biggest star, Emeka Okafor.

Key Free Agents

• Emeka Okafor - Drafted to be the centerpiece of the Bobcats for much of his career, Okafor has yet to become a dominant player in the NBA. At the age of twenty-five, however, Emeka should be closing in on his prime as a player and it is vital for the Bobcats to keep him locked up in Charlotte. While Okafor won't demand Dwight Howard-type money, he will require an annual salary of at least thirteen to fifteen million. Quality big men are at a premium in the NBA, after all.
• Adam Morrison - Morrison is actually not a free agent, rather the team has an option to keep him for the next two seasons if they so wish. Originally a third pick in the NBA draft, Adam has been a disappointment as a pro thus far. In fact, injuries have kept him out of the entire 2007-08 season. But the Bobcats have indicated they will keep him and there is really no good reason for them not to.

Areas of Need - Much like the Atlanta Hawks, the Bobcats have a lot of young talent. The problem is that they have yet to find a superstar. Okafor, while a solid defensive and rebounding presence, has yet to become the player they had hoped for. And Richardson, although an explosive athlete, is a complimentary player, not a starring one. The Bobcats need to find an established superstar and add him to their ranks. The problem, however, is that after resigning Okafor and keeping Morrison, the team will have little to no cap space left over.

Other Notes - Charlotte accepted a disastrous midseason trade with Detroit, agreeing to take on Nazr Mohammed for Primoz Brezec and Walter Hermann. Had the team not made the trade, it would have been an additional six million dollars under the cap.

Future Outlook - There is a lot of young talent in Charlotte but right now they still resemble a team that could win March Madness more then they do a NBA team. It is doubtful that the playoffs are in the picture for this team for the foreseeable future unless one of their young stars makes a major turn.

Miami Heat

Current Salary - $73,431,297

Summer Salary - $53,364,781

The good news for the Heat is that they lose twenty million dollars off their books after this season ends. The bad news is that they still are just barely under the projected cap and will need to sign a large amount of players to have the required fifteen. And of course, much of their summer plans hinge on whether or not Shawn Marion stays with the team or not.

Key Free Agents

• Shawn Marion - Just acquired from the Suns for Shaquille O'Neal, Marion is a terrific small forward who plays good offense, rebounds well, and is an excellent defender. He also, however, is due over seventeen million dollars next season if he chooses to pick up his player option. It is highly unlikely that he will keep that amount of money on the table and walk away, but it is a key to the Heat's summer nonetheless.
• Alonzo Mourning - Mourning has already stated on record that he will retire and leave the Heat.
• Ricky Davis - Although a potent scorer when he puts his mind to it, Davis has often been described as a team cancer and will almost certainly be allowed to walk away from the team.
• Jason Williams - Before the season begun, it seemed certain that the Heat and Williams would part ways at the end of this season, if not sooner. But with their limited cap flexibility and William's experience, the team might have to consider bringing him back if he is willing to accept a much lower salary than the nine-million he just earned.

Areas of Need - The Heat are set at shooting guard with Dwayne Wade, small forward with Marion if he stays, and power forward with Udonis Haslem. Everything else, including bench positions, is a huge question mark. As of now, the team has no size, none whatsoever. That should be their primary concern going into the NBA draft and free agency. But if there are no stellar big men to be had, the team should look into drafting one of the many talented point guards that will probably be available in the draft.

Other Notes - From a competitive standpoint, it has to be killing the Heat players, especially Wade, to lose so many games this season. But on the bright side, the team will have one of the top selections in what looks to be a very talented draft. Adding a blue-chip talent next to Wade for a rookie-salary discount is exactly what the team needs right now.

Future Outlook - The departure of O'Neal and Mourning should change the very style of play the Heat operate in. Without any legitimate big men, the team may have to switch to a fast-paced tempo much in the same way the Suns and Warriors play. With Wade, Haslem, Marion, and whatever first-round pick they get, that sort of playing style could get them back into the postseason picture by next season.

But fans should not expect their team to become a title contender anytime soon. Pat Riley sold the team's soul for their 2006 Championship and it will show for more seasons then just this current one.

Orlando Magic

Current Salary - $58,819,313

Summer Salary - $54,856,605

In the summer following the one in which the Orlando Magic doled out around two-hundred million dollars for the services of two players, the team should be relatively quiet. Although the Magic still need a top-flight guard, they simply do not have the cash to sign one.

Key Free Agents

• Carlos Arroyo - Although he initially played good minutes with the Magic, the hiring of Stan Van Gundy has seen Arroyo lose many of his minutes of the bench. It is doubtful that the team will bring him back, as Van Gundy has publicly said he prefers Keyan Dooling as the team's backup point guard.
• JJ Redick - First of all, shame on the Magic for wasting their eleventh pick on the draft on Redick in the first place. Did anyone really think JJ was NBA-lottery level talent? The team has an option on keeping JJ and it is highly unlikely that they will not take that option. But Redick has to start producing for the Magic soon.
• Maurice Evans - Currently the starting shooting guard for the team, Evans may be resigned simply because of the cheap signing price he will command. But don't let his current status fool you, Evans is and always has been a good bench player at best.

Areas of Need - As mentioned before, the Magic need better guards. Their starting frontcourt of Lewis, Howard, and Turkoglu is terrific, but to really excel the team needs better balance between the backcourt and frontcourt. In particular, the team has a severe need for an upgrade at shooting guard.

Other Notes - One thing no one should overlook is Dwight Howard's monster improvement. At his age, Howard is only going to get better as seasons pass and his progression is something no one can statistically measure. Should he take another giant step, the Magic might improve greatly without having to make any additions.

Future Outlook - Their four man core of Howard, Turkoglu, Lewis, and Nelson is locked up for quite some years into the future. This is good and bad. If the team meshes and the young talent improves, the current roster could be good enough to contend for titles. If they don't, they will struggle to add additional talent to take the next step. Either way, however, Orlando should become a fixture in the playoffs as long as Howard is healthy.

Washington Wizards

Current Salary - $67,550,468

Summer Salary - $38,459,731

Much like the Miami Heat, the Washington Wizards have a star player who has the opportunity to opt-out of his contract in the summer. Unlike the Heat, however, chances are likely that the Wizards' star will take that option. What Gilbert Arenas does will play a major role in determining how the Wizards' summer will go.

Key Free Agents

• Gilbert Arenas - As Gilbert has already publicly stated he will opt-out, it is fair to assume he will be a free agent. Arenas has always been a wacky player, choosing the Wizards as his destination on the basis of a coin flip years ago. In this case, however, he will go wherever the money is. Although he has been the face of the Wizards' franchise for a few years, the team may be willing to let him go as his antics are a constant distraction to the team and his play is somewhat selfish.
• Antawn Jamison - Another key player for the Wizards, Jamison is a terrific scorer and rebounder. As an unrestricted free agent, Antawn is free to find the best offer on the market and the Wizards could easily lose out on him. More than any other team, the Wizards have the most, in terms of star-power, to lose this offseason. But given their constant struggles defensively and their lack of postseason advancement, a whole-scale makeover to the team may not be a bad thing.

Areas of Need - This really is dependent on whether or not the Wizards keep both, one, or none of their aforementioned stars. They have a terrific player in Caron Butler to build around, but if they allow both Arenas and Jamison to walk, they will need to find another superstar to put next to Butler. A sign-and-trade with the Clippers, in which the team would send Arenas to the West coast, to obtain Elton Brand could be possible and beneficial to both teams. But what happens exactly remains to be seen.

Other Notes - None.

Future Outlook - If the Wizards do the smart thing this offseason, they will let Jamison leave and try to sign-and-trade the feisty Arenas to another team as mentioned above. The team has a nice core of young players such as Andray Blatche and Nick Young that could benefit from more playing time. A short "rebuilding" season that focuses the team more on the future instead of instant success should help the team, eventually, get out of the first round.

My main sources for this article were as follows;

http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=2008FreeAgents

Stay tuned for the other five parts in this feature!