NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracketology -- Predicting a Champion

Now that the NCAA Selection Committee has come out of sequester and bracketed all the teams that they're letting into the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, March Madness and bracketology can begin in earnest. The Selection Committee announced Sunday the 34 at-large teams being invited to the 2010 "Big Dance" on CBS at 6 p.m., and by the time they were through, the bubble teams knew if they had made it into the NCAA Tournament or would have to settle for an invitation to the National Invitational Tournament (NIT). But those that got in now pose a problem for all those disposed to predicting and prognosticating the outcome of the tournament games.

This year's version of March Madness begins with the unanimous #1 (AP Poll and the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll) team in the nation, Kansas. They're also the top seed in the Midwest bracket. According to Gary Parrish at CBSSports.com, the Midwest bracket is the toughest, but Kansas will prevail in the end. In fact, he has Kansas taking on Kentucky, the #1 seed in the East bracket for the NCAA Basketball Tournament Championship game (only to fall there to the Wildcats). And he's likely to be correct, but it is somehow strange that a unanimous pick for #1 would be chosen to lose to a team that was chosen as the second best in the country. (Of course, Gary Parrish may not have had anything to do with the polls.)

He also notes that he picked all 65 teams that made it into the Tournament correctly. Parrish humbly admits that he has a lot of time to crunch those bracketology numbers.

The other two #1 seeds in the NCAA Basketball Tournament were Syracuse and Duke.

The team that seems to have the easiest bracket (if any can be said to be 'easy') is Duke, positioned at the top of the South bracket. Still, they have to get past the second round, where they play the winner of the California-Louisville match-up. Both teams won 20 games or more. California as a Top 15 preseason poll team and Louisville beat #1 West seed Syracuse twice this year. Otherwise, the highest nationally ranked team in the bracket is #9 Villanova (Duke finished the year at #3 in both major polls).

The problem with bracketology in the first couple rounds will be getting around the upsets and stabilizing one's brackets after a key upset or one that knocks off a high-seeded team. In any given year, there is usually at least one team that makes the Sweet 16 that statistically should not be there. These are the much celebrated Cinderellas, the killers of bracket percentages. In 2009, five Cinderellas made it into the second round, but only Arizona prevailed, making the Sweet 16, only to fall to #1 seeded Louisville in the Midwest Bracket. It is in the Elite 8 where a person following trends and the RPI (ratings percentage index) of the given teams will see the field stabilize into match-ups between teams that have dominated the top of the polls all season.

When choosing one's brackets, it is generally considered a good idea to choose the team with the higher seed berth to win - then hope that they're not upset. And if the team of higher seed is defeated, then one must hope that one's other choices move to compensate within the next round or so. If you are choosing brackets for fun, you can use any criteria you like to choose your bracket winners. Of course, you can do the same if you have money riding on it in an office pool or in a contest online, but then you might want to invest a bit of time praying as well. As a rule of thumb, one should always go with the higher seeds when attempting to win a contest or choose correctly the higher percentage of games.

NCAA bracketology is highly dependent on one's belief in numbers -- and the higher the belief, the better. So which teams should be chosen for the Final Four? Any of the eight top-seeded teams, with limited deference to the next four in line as well. These 12 teams are generally the best in the country and will generally knock off their competitors one by one until the Elite Eight and the Final Four, when they're usually pitted against each other. The two teams that play for the championship are almost always a #1, #2, or #3 seeded team.

In the end, ultimately it should be the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country that vie for the NCAA Championship title. In this case, that would be Kansas and Kentucky, respectively. The aforementioned Gary Parrish believes Kentucky will win it all. This writer does not have any reason to disagree with the two final contenders (although with WVU being one's alma mater, it is hoped that they knock off Kentucky to play for the NCAA Basketball Tournament Championship). But it is difficult to see the team picked a unanimous #1 losing to the team that, if they were supposedly the better team and considered able to beat Kansas, should be in that position in the polls. Since they are not - and since this writer has been somewhat of Kansas fan since even before the Danny Manning days - this writer will side with the Jayhawks.

Perhaps your bracketology will break down differently. It may look far different than what the experts are going with. But don't be discouraged. Before the first round is played, everyone starts off the same - with a 50/50 chance of winning.

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Viewable bracket of NCAA Basketball Tournament

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Sources:

CBSSports.com

Associated Press

ESPN.go.com