NCAA Final Four: Predicting the Championship Game

The NCAA Tournament has its Final Four set and ready to play in San Antonio, Texas, this upcoming Saturdy, April 5. And all four teams are number one seeds. All four teams have lost three games or less. Two of them lost to Texas, who made the Elite Eight and was knocked off by Memphis, whose only loss all year was to Tennessee, the team that was supposed to be the fourth number one seed until their upset in the Southeast Conference tournament by Arkansas. Well, that is what they pay the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee for, after all.

So, who stands to be in the final dance at the championship?

First semifinal: Memphis vs. UCLA at 6:07 EST, Saturday, April 5.

If the Memphis Tigers let themselves be psyched out by the fabled glory of UCLA's past performances in the NCAA Tournament, they'll surely lose. UCLA has won 11 national championships, the most recent in 1995. Memphis has won none. And Memphis hasn't fared well against the Bruins in tournament play, either, having lost both earlier matchups in 1973 and 2006.

But this year may be different. Memphis is big, fast, and can those guys shoot. Coming off of two crushing victories over Michigan St. and Texas, Memphis may be primed to win it all.

The key matchup in this game will be down low between the two big men. Joey Dorsey, who is averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game for Memphis, will have to control the boards on defense. Memphis' offense is known for its penetration and not for its 3-pointer prowess, so controlling the lanes on offense for the Tigers is a must. And controlling the lanes on defense is what UCLA is really good at, so...

UCLA is also coming off of two impressive wins over Western Kentucky and Xavier. Kevin Love, the Bruins' 6-10 center is their leading scorer (almost 18 points per game) and rebounder (nearly 11 per game). If Memphis finds a way to neutralize Love, or Love succumbs to his chronic back problems, they will find their path to the championship game a little clearer. But UCLA has three players averaging over 12 points per game (Collison, Shipp, and Westbrook), so, clear or not, it is not going to be easy. However, Shipp has not played well in the last two games (2-17 from the floor) and might not be much of a factor.

Prediction: Memphis 78, UCLA 73

Second semifinal: North Carolina vs. Kansas at 8:47 EST, Saturday, April 5.

Kansas did not seem to have a problem with any of the teams they faced in the NCAA Tournament - until they played their last game against cinderella Davidson, barely escaping with a 59-57 win. But they are back in the Final Four and facing their old coach, Roy Williams, across the way. Not that that really matters, except as an incentive to Jayhawks players to win...

North Carolina comes into the game having soundly defeated every team they have played, including their last against a strong Louisville squad. Making their 17th appearance in the Final Four, the Tarheels mount a high-scoring offense led by forward Tyler Hansbrough, who is averaging nearly 23 points per game. He is also the Tarheels leading rebounder (10.3).

Both teams have shooting depth. Both teams have four double-digit scorers (on average). But North Carolna is used to high-scoring games, so they have the edge if the game gets above 70 points in the second half.

The difference will be Tyler Hansbrough. If Kansas can somehow minimalize his presence on the court, they can win a shootout with North Carolina.

Prediction: Kansas 82, North Carolina 80.

The Championship Game, which will be played on April 7. Admittedly, any of these teams could get there. They are all that evenly matched. And this writer's predictions are based more on what he would like to see as opposed to what might actually happen. But a Kansas-Memphis shootout sounds a lot better than a North Carolina-UCLA final. Perhaps it is because the latter two names have become almost synonymous with championship.

Sources:

ESPN.com

Sportsline.com

Mike DeCourcy, "Final Four Matchup: North Carolina vs. Kansas," SportingNews.com

Mike DeCourcy, "Final Four Matchup: UCLA vs. Memphis," SportingNews.com