NCAA Tournament Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Memphis Tigers

The Teams
Michigan State is a physical team with size and good guard play. Drew Neitzel their senior PG is the leader and engine of the team. Raymar Morgan and Kalin Lucas are excellent athletes that can score. Goran Suton is a good post player with nice mid range touch.

Memphis may be the most talented team in college basketball. Their back court of Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts cause all types of match up problems. They are two of the best scoring and rebounding guards in Division I basketball. Joey Dorsey is a beast inside at 6'9 and around 265 pounds.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Michigan State

Strengths

Toughness - The Spartans are a prototypical Big Ten team. They bang and grind on both sides of the floor. They play tough defense and are one of the best in the nation at going after rebounds. They are 8th among Division I teams in Rebounding margin. They also sport a lot of big bodies that could give Memphis some problems on the block.

Free Throws - Michigan State averages 73.9 as team this year from the line, which ranks 3rd among teams still in the tournament behind Xavier and North Carolina.

Weakness

Consistent Scoring - Michigan State can only beat Memphis if they have a big game out of Neitzel. He has been inconsistent at times and must have a huge game for the Spartys to stay in the game.

Athletes - Outside of Morgan and Lucas this team does not possess the type of uber-athlete that teams like Memphis seem to carry in abundance. They have to outwork and out hustle teams to be effective.

Memphis

Strengths

Scoring - The Tigers averaged 79.8 PPG this year, almost 10 higher a game then the Spartans. If they can run against the Michigan State defense it will be very difficult for the Spartans to keep up.

Defensive Quickness - This team averaged around 9 steals a game (8.5) which ranks 3rd among teams left in the tournament. They also averaged 5.9 blocks a game which is tops among teams still in the tournament. They have enough speed to hassle opposing guards and they have excellent help defense to make up for any weaknesses in the middle.

Weaknesses

Free Throw Shooting - As a team this year they shot 59.2 % from the charity stripe. They also don't have one guy who makes then consistently, not one player on Memphis's team even averaged 70% percent from the line. Michigan State could implement the NCAA version of "Hack a Shaq" in a close game.
Size - With only two players above 6-10 and only one of those is in their normal rotation they will be giving away a lot of size to the Spartans. Luckily for them they usually make up for this with their superior athletes and help side defense. If Joey Dorsey can be effective on the glass and stay out of the foul trouble that has plagued him all year, the Tigers will be OK. If he does pick up a few cheap ones Memphis does not have the depth to compete with the Spartans down low.

Key Match Ups
Guards Neitzel and Lucas vs. Rose and Douglas-Roberts

Both teams can only go as far as their guards take them. For Michigan State Neitzel must be able to knock down 3s and keep the offense moving efficiently. Lucas must be able to penetrate and distribute to Spartan shooters. For Memphis Douglas-Roberts is a big (6-7) smooth guard that can score and rebound effectively, he most score and help on the glass to take the pressure of Memphis's post players. Rose is thought to be heading to the NBA at the conclusion of freshman year and for good reason. He is able to penetrate and score, has great vision when looking for teammates and shoots well from behind the arch. Whichever back court tandem can control the game will lead their team to victory.

Memphis Tigers vs. The Free Throw Line

Close games usually come down to turnovers and free throws. If Memphis finds itself in a low scoring contest with Michigan State they must be able to hit a respectable amount of free throws. If they can hit around 65% from the line they should be in good shape.

Prediction
I believe both teams will be able to do what they do well. The Tigers will run and score in transition. Michigan State will be able to rebound and score on second chance opportunities. This game will come down to free throws, edge Michigan State.
Michigan State 76 - Memphis 73

All Stats from NCAA.com