New England Patriots Preseason Observations

Losing the SuperBowl has been a traumatic event in the life of many a contender; 7 of the last losers failed to make the playoffs the next year, and I don't think any one of those has actually returned. Goodness, look at what happened to the Raiders after losing Super Bowl XXXII. They've barely sniffed a win, never mind a winning season or playoff appearance.

It is with that in mind that I've been watching the preseason with a degree of angst to begin with, never mind the anemic performance we've gotten from the team throughout the preseason.

And far, the Patriots have looked pretty awful in competition this preseason. Game 3 - by most measures, the most important of the preseason games - was marked by another colossally bad offensive performance, as well as some spectacular failures on special teams; two consecutive returns resulting in touchdowns against you really has to go down as something special in terms of failure.

However, there has been some extenuating circumstances and some explanation that would lead me to be cautiously optimistic in my perception of where this team is currently in terms of its readiness for true competition. "This had better be good," you're saying to myself.

I expect it will be, but in the end I'd love to hear whether or not you think I'm deluding myself; if you think I'm full of it, or if you may just agree with me.

One of the things I found interesting was the release of Tight End Marcus Pollard. This essentially wraps up not the Tight End competition, but the Running Backs competition. The Pats will likely keep 5 on the roster. One could look at that as an indictment of Laurence Moroney and his development; or one could look at it another way. All of these guys can catch the ball - Moroney, Morris, Faulk, Green-Ellis, Jordan. Add in Fullbacks Evans and Eckel, and you've got yourself a full compliment of receivers as well as runners.

What became clear near the end of the season last year was that the explosive offense we'd seen all year just wasn't going to carry the day. The attacks on Brady became more and more intense, the coverages on the wide outs became tighter, leaving the flanks and short passes open because teams had to choose some poison, so they went with the least lethal. In the end, the Patriots STILL almost won the Super Bowl, but it was through this punishment that the Giants were able to pull it out.

Carrying the running backs as they are, it would seem to be a movement toward moving slightly away from that powerful quick strike offense, and more centered toward a balanced attack of short, dink-and-dunk passes (a la 2001) and the quick strike pass. This keeps the scoring margins down BUT also keeps the offense on the field a little while longer, giving the defense some rest and putting a great deal more pressure on the opponents' offense. The Pats are still going to score on more possessions than not, but now you've got less time and fewer possessions in which to accomplish what you need to.

While Tom Brady has yet to take a snap, there's a good reason for that. He already knows this offense. Cripes. He IS this offense - have you seen any of the other QB play? Atrocious. So is Brady hurt or not. My suspicion is that if he is tweaked, it's minor and that the only reason there's ANY discussion at all as to whether or not he's hurt, it's just to put the thought into your head that he COULD be.

To piggy-back on the last thought, Matt Cassell is not long for this Patriots roster. Here is a guy who has had some significant time with the system, has been given the opportunity to succeed - sure, he's not played much in-game, but after watching this preseason, I'm wondering if that's a "chicken-or-egg" situation.

The game plan has been stone cold vanilla thusfar - indication that the coaching staff is looking at fundamentals, and ability to play-make over familiarity with schemes. Another indication that the people who were at the cornerstone of your team last year will remain cornerstones and we're looking at what people bring football skills to the table - which guys know how to play football - is the limited playing time of those cornerstone players.

I'm guessing Matt Gutierrez is your #2 QB come kick off on September 7. If Cassell's performance isn't an indication, perhaps Belichick calling him "Gutes" is.

Jerod Mayo is the real deal. He's got a bunch of things figured out. Shawn Crable might be a year or so "away" from being the real thing, but this kid is very good too. An indication that Tank Williams was going to be a significant part of the defense this year is the signing of John Lynch to a 1-year deal - he'll take on the role Williams would have had.

My prediction: 13-3 with losses to San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh. But trust me, I don't mind being wrong if they win more.