New Hampshire Exit Polls Produce Surprises

Earlier this week, I listened to National Public Radio as New Hampshire residents commented on the upcoming primary. One astute resident noted that, if given two options, a typical voter while choose the third.

This comment about New Hampshire's unpredictability and resistance to predetermined outcomes seems prescient considering the marked difference between predictions and early results based on exit poll data.

As the numbers come in, two narratives about the New Hampshire primary have emerged, each surprising in its own way:

1. John McCain took an early lead in a Republican race most pundits had deemed would be closer than it turned out to be. (He's openly touted as New Hampshire's "comeback kid.")

2. The Democratic candidates continued to show that the race is still open.

On the Democratic end, CNN and other news outlets report Senator Hillary Clinton as holding a shaky lead over Senator Barack Obama, with the lead vacillating between 2 and 4%. Regardless of who wins, it would be tough to argue with Josh Marshall's (Talking Points Memo) assessment that "[w]hatever the final results are tonight it seems clear the final polls missed some late movement in Hillary's direction -- to put it mildly."

Of course, there will be innumerable commentators, pundits, and campaign staffers puzzling over what's happening in New Hampshire tonight, and when they do, I hope they examine potential backlash to the near-dismissal of Clinton as not just a front-runner, but as a viable candidate in the long haul. It's possible that suggestions that Clinton was either weak or feigning emotion on the campaign trail had a reverse-psychology effect on voters, particularly voters in a state famous for placing a high value on independent thinking. Then again, Clinton had a good showing in Saturday's debate and, all things considered, the recent exposure was exactly that: exposure.

Overall, exit polls suggest that McCain got a big push from independents (in contrast to Obama's expected boost), that voters on both side rated the economy as a primary concern, and that Democrats voted for issues while Republicans, at least in part, found personality important ("Exit polls: Independents make difference for McCain," CNN).

As the evening continues, there will almost certainly be disappointment and confusion on both sides, but some preliminary conclusions seem clear: Supporters of neither party are completely swept up in or impervious to image, domestic issues remain at the forefront, and New Hampshire voters are nothing if not genuinely independent.