New Hampshire Poll Results
The latest CNN poll with a margin of error of five percentage points, which was taken December 27, 2007 through December 30, 2007, shows a tight race for both parties.
Mitt Romney and John McCain are both neck and neck for the New Hampshire Republican primary. They are evenly tied in first place with 29% of the vote. Rudy Guliani is in third with 12%, Mike Huckabee is rounding out the top four with 10%, and Ron Paul is right behind Huckabee with 7%. With the margin of, the spot for third place is a three-way tie, which shows that Ron Paul's campaign has some strength in New Hampshire. So this poll would indicate that either McCain or Romney has a strong chance to score a victory in New Hampshire.
Hillary Clinton is in first place with 34% and Barack Obama is in second with 30%. However, the margin turns this race into a statistical dead heat. John Edwards is in third with 17% and the rest of the candidates are in the single digit range. So it looks like it could be a photo finish for Obama and Clinton to see who wins this primary.
Each side has at least 8% of those surveyed with no opinion so there is still a good amount of undecided voters in each party. Plus according to that same poll, New Hampshire is the state of independent voters and they outnumber members of both parties.
According to the latest MSNBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 63% of those surveyed believe that this country is headed in the wrong direction with just 22 % percent thinking that this country is headed in the right direction. In addition, 46% of those surveyed believe that America needs to change its approach to how we deal with issues that are facing our country. These types of poll numbers show that Americans want change and some sort of new direction.
While neither poll reflect the results from Iowa, which have the potential to boost campaigns, they do show that whoever taps into voters desire for change the most has a good chance to finish first in New Hampshire.
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7 Comments
Post a CommentThanks for the info, good to see you here!
I'm enjoying reading and watching it but can't vote.
And now, CNN has declared Hilary the winner of the New Hampshire. Obama's definitely still in the race. Great article.
This is such a close race for the democratic possible nominees. I just heard right now that the AP has projected Hilary Clinton as the winner tonight in NH.
There have been some more recent polls taken which show Obama surging and McCain leading Romney, despite having been outspent (Romney had a TV spot running every 8.5 minutes!). If that isn't enough, consider the fact that, in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, which has already voted (at midnight, tonight), Hillary did not get a single vote! The big winner, overall, was Obama with 7 votes (of 17 cast). After that, 4 for McCain was next highest, and the others that got votes at all fell off to 2 votes (Edwards, Romney), 1 vote (Giuiliani, Richardson) or none at all (i.e., Clinton, Thompson, et. al.). Polls are tricky things. They cause people to THINK they should vote a certain way, sometimes. I like to be "on the ground" and talk to the real voters, if possible. Unfortunately, not possible, for me, in New Hamsphire (Illinois and Florida, yes), but I'm doing the best I can on C-Span.
I say: polls don't vote, people do or "they never ask me". I am quite interested in this primary race. I did not find much info on a New Hampshire debate yesterday, but it seems Obama & Edwards teamed up to diss Clinton, telling her she always attacks them when they speak of change. Yet she said after Iowa "we proved the US citizens want change". The we she was speaking of was herself and Obama. I think that debate is going to hurt some candidates, especially with Kucinich filing a lawsuit about not being allowed to participate and Mellisa Ethridge complaining on his behalf to the New York Times. It was by chance that I learned Wyoming held it's Republican caucus choosing Romney. Quite interesting, watching this unfold.
The four New Hampshire Democratic Presidential polls taken since the Iowa caucuses (of which the poll mentioned above is one) average out to show Obama in the lead. In fact, two of them show him with a double digit lead (see realclearpolitics.com). Why report only on CNN's poll and not other reputable pollsters like Rasmussen and American Research Group? Please edit this article to tell the full story.
In fact, if you were to average out the four polls taken since the Iowa caucuses, you would have Obama with a 5.75 lead. This should be the story that the media is putting out there, but incredibly almost all of the mainstream media outlets have reported on this "tie" in the polls. What could be the reason behind this? It almost appears that the media is creating its own narrative, truth be damned, to make for a more dramatic race.