New Marriage Calculator Predicts the Odds of Divorce

Should You Let a Computer Predict the Future of Your Marriage?

Sarah F. Sullivan
Good news! If you're worried about whether or not your marriage will last, you can consult the "Marriage Calculator" at divorce360.com to see how likely to you are to get a divorce. The brainchild of Betsey Stevenson, an assistant professor of business and public policy at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, the "Marriage Calculator" is based on certain factors:

* Gender

* When You Married

* Education

* Age When You Were Married

* How Many Years You've Been Married

For instance, the more education you have, the longer your marriage will last. The younger you are at the time of your marriage, the more likely you are to get divorced. The calculator uses data from the U.S. Census bureau and allows you to compare your background with others who have the same profile as you. It also estimates how many people like you are likely to be divorced within the next five years. However, Stevenson states, "Different types of people face different divorce rates historically."

G. Cotter Cunningham, CEO of divorce360.com, calls the calculator a "tool for everyone who is thinking of getting married right now." He continues to say that the calculator can help advise such people, so they can see what percent chance they have of divorcing within the next five years.

Stevenson calls the calculator a "tool to think about hypotheticals." This is where I have a problem. Everything is hypothetical. Despite the fact that both Cunningham and Stevenson say that everyone is different and that the predicting data is not absolute, they still insist that it should be used as a tool. If every person who was considering marriage were to use this calculator, there would be a lot of brides and grooms with cold feet.

According to the "Marriage Calculator" (which really should be called a "Divorce Calculator"), my marriage has an 10% chance of ending in five years. Even if I had found the calculator before my wedding, would I have used it and taken it seriously? Probably not. The data may be accurate, but the fact remains that a computer can't make such a decision off the barest of questions when it has no concept of the individuals it is dealing with.

Every person is different and often times they divorce for unseen reasons, not simply because they were young when they got married or because they only received a high school diploma. Outside forces meddle with things, unfortunate circumstances occur and marriages end. But not always for the barest of reasons.

So, is the "Marriage Calculator" something to be taken seriously? By all accounts, the data suggests that it is. However, I would suggest not using it and keep yourself away from worrying thoughts. No marriage is perfect, but its fate shouldn't be decided by computer data.

50% Divorce Rate For All is Just Not True: New Marriage Calculator Shows the Facts, Market Watch

Marriage Calculator

Published by Sarah F. Sullivan

Graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in English, emphasis in Writing. Freelance writer and editor for three years.   View profile

11 Comments

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  • Dirk McFergus 12/4/2008

    Probably funded by tax dollars. Fun though.

  • Holden Unfiltered 12/4/2008

    whoa. people have too much time on their hands!!! 8) Great article!

  • Kathryn Sharp 12/4/2008

    I've got the solution to the divorce rates! Just don't get married! I'm just kidding, but I do think people tend to jump in a little too fast. I think divorce rates have a little bit more to do with how spoiled we are, how we think we are OWED certain things from our spouses. Does that calculator take income into account? Money is one of the biggest causes of divorce!

  • Liz Smith 12/4/2008

    What a funny little thing. Interesting article, terrible idea for the calculator to be taken seriously. It's pretty much glorified statistics, casting aside all personality factors, etc.

    I agree with you - better off not to use it and not worry about the stats it hands you.

  • Katie Just 12/4/2008

    The only info this "calculator" could give me is that 9% of people with the same stats as myself are already divorced and 9% with my same stats will be divorced within 5 years. So basically, PFFT! Wasted 3 minutes of my life, and I can't get that back! LOL

  • Carol Bengle Gilbert 12/3/2008

    Like Momie I agree it is useful for fun only. For one thing, it only asks about certain stats for one partner to the marriage when the stats for each could be radically different.

  • Josh Gravitt 12/3/2008

    I agree, the calculator is pretty silly. It doesn't even ask about the most important things such as religious beliefs, which can make the biggest difference in divorce rates.

  • JenneJoy 12/3/2008

    What a stupid idea. My grandmother married young (17) and she didn't graduate high school and they were married for over 40 years (my grandfather passed) so I suppose that would put her little "calculator" off balance. What a waste! The woman who created that calculator must be bored if she feels so obligated to meddle in the lives of others - your gender and age aren't significant enough to predict your divorce.

    Ridiculous idea (the calculator) - but good article. That woman is crazy.

  • Heather Rutherfordstone 12/3/2008

    That's kind of funny. I'm in the middle of getting a divorce but apparently my odds of staying with him are pretty darn good! I guess it's not all that accurate. Thanks for the fun article.

  • Momie Tullottes 12/3/2008

    I think it might be interesting for entertainment purposes, but I agree with you that it should not be taken seriously. A marriage is more serious than trusting it to silly predictions. Great analysis. :-)

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