New President, Same Focus for South Korea

President-elect Lee Myung-bak will probably keep South Korea on its current foreign and security policy tract, despite a considerable ideological divide with current liberal President Roh Moo-hyun, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group. The report, titled "South Korea's Election: What to Expect from President Lee," was published December 21 and is available on the Crisis Group's web site.

Lee, who represented the conservative Grand National Party on the presidential ballot, won a significant electoral victory December 19 and is scheduled to be sworn into office on February 25. According to the IFES Election Guide, South Korea's president is elected by popular vote to a five year term. The new Crisis Group report takes a look at the expected impacts of Lee's election on South Korea's diplomatic relations with Kim Jong Il's North Korean regime and on the South's relationship with the United States.

Lee, a former top official for the Korean Hyundai automobile corporation, has promised South Koreans that he will put his emphasis on economic performance, but the Crisis Group says he will likely be a key player in the six party talks concerning North Korea's nuclear development program as well. Daniel Pinkston, Senior Analyst in South Korea for the Crisis Group, says, "Although Lee is expected to seek better ties with the U.S., China and Japan, he will be under the same constraints as his predecessor in all these relationships, which tend to be buffeted by events outside the control of the South Korean government."

The Chinese People's Daily says that U.S. President George W. Bush called president-elect Lee to invite him to Washington. Lee has expressed a wish to better relations with the United States, the Crisis Group says, and he is unlikely to make diplomatic moves with regional actors like China that would jeopardize the U.S.-South Korean partnership.

Lee is expected to continue working with North Korea, the Crisis Group report says, and has presented a strategy for investing in North Korea's export manufacturing economy. Unlike his predecessor, however, Lee is expected to ask for more in return from his northern neighbor. Robert Templer, Asia Program Director for the Crisis Group, says, "Lee can be expected to focus on building economic ties with the North and using the process of the six-party talks to improve regional security. However, his room for manoeuvre on foreign and security policy will depend substantially on the April elections."

The International Crisis Group is an independent, nonprofit, nongovernmental organization that works to resolve and prevent violent conflict around the world. The group actively monitors more than 60 hot spots around the globe.

Sources: International Crisis Group web site, IFES Election Guide web site , China People's Daily web site