New York City Due for a Hurricane: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

New York City, located at the southeastern most part of New York State, is the most populated city in the United States. Currently there are over eight million residents. The majority of New York City, as well as the United States tend to not think of this area to be affected by a major hurricane. When someone says hurricane, almost 97 percent of the United States think Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and the islands. No one ever considers New York a likely suspect.

However on September 21, 1938, a hurricane hit New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island killing over six hundred people, injuring over four thousand, and damaging over seventy thousand buildings. This massive hurricane hit with winds over 120 mph and even gusts up to 180 mph were recorded. Long Island's seal level rose sixteen feet! The impact was devastating. Based on information that New York can receive a hurricane, when will the next one hit?

Last week almost three inches or rain fell onto the city of New York overnight, which flooded roadways and subways. This extreme flooding got meteorologists and scientists considering not only the subway problems when it comes to heavy rain, but the prediction that New York is due of another major hurricane.

Weather experts are predicting a hurricane with winds exceeding 130 mph with a potential thirty foot storm rush that could has the grounds to overflow the Hudson and the East rivers.

New York City officials have already set up an evacuation plan for the five boroughs in New York City as well as evacuation plans according to the category of the hurricane. The Red Cross would have hurricane shelters set up, however those shelters do not allow pets inside. A large percentage state that they would evacuate their homes, however around 20% would need assistance to do so and over 25% claimed that they wouldn't leave their pets behind in order to go to a shelter that doesn't allow them.

Officials are calculating that over three million people would need to be evacuated and their plan would be to utilize mass mobilization to bring these residents to the 500 shelters that are to be available. The city is also stating that their plan would be to initiate snow emergency traffic regulations as well as waiving any fares and tolls in the city.

As of this past week, New York City plans to send out over three hundred thousand hurricane preparedness brochures to those households that are in the line of coastal damage.

The hazards of global warming have been causing an increase for severe weather in New York. Global climate models show the rise of the region's temperatures by almost four degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2030 and a possibility of up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100. This extreme change in temperatures doesn't just happen, it has been happening gradually within in last century causing heat waves, and more severe storms.

The rise in global warming, in the long run, will inevitably lead to stronger hurricanes affecting the northeast. Meteorologists have noticed that a major hurricane hits New York one every 90 years, and since the last major hurricane hit in 1938, you could say that the city is due for another one.

As of right now, there is a 21% chance that New York will be hit this year, 2007, with a hurricane of a severity of a Category 3 or less. The chances of a Category 3 or higher hurricane to hit are around 6%.

The above percentages may not seem high, but for the characteristics and geology of New York such as the climate changes and sea levels, this gives a storm power.

In conclusion, New York City is an area full of rising concern during hurricane season and like I said, is very vulnerable to the threat of hurricanes. Hurricane season is currently in season; normally the months of August and September are those that need the utmost attention.

Those of you in the New York City itself or in the general vicinity should find all the information your local government has to offer on what and where you should go regarding a hurricane. And of course, if you do not receive the hurricane preparedness brochure, you can contact New York City's Office of Emergency Management at 718-422-4800.

Good luck and stay safe!