New York Favors Obama in Latest Polls

The state that gave 58% of the vote to John Kerry (D) and Al Gore (D) during their respective presidential runs (Real Clear Politics and AP via Yahoo!) is expected to favor the Democratic candidate strongly once again. In the most recent New York state poll conducted by The New York Times (pdf) from June 6 to 11 suggests a 51% to 35.4% victory for Senator Barack Obama. The approximately 16% of respondents who picked neither instead selected "Other", "Won't Vote", "Depends", or "Don't Know". Though in most elections a 16% undecided voter class could swing a result, in the State of New York Obama's 51% support is a relatively safe margin in today's highly competitive races. With most New York polls pointing to an Obama win in the state, one of the few recent polls that does not give the Senator a clear majority still estimates he would come out 10 points ahead of Senator John McCain (48 - 38, according to Survey USA).

New York State Republicans selected McCain as their candidate, but they are heavily outnumbered in one of the most unchangingly Democratic states of the US (New York gave Bill Clinton 50%, 59% of votes in his 1992, 1996 runs and voted 52% Michael Dukakis in 1988). With this reputation, it comes as no surprise that most polling and campaigning activity shifts from New York to the so-called "battleground states", where the outcome is less predictable. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada see the bulk of campaigning action while states with Republican or Democratic constituencies are generally assumed to be decided already. In fact, John McCain's campaign opened its New Jersey / New York Regional Headquarters just last week, on June 24. And although Barack Obama support groups are active in New York, the candidate himself has not recently stumped in the area.

That neither Obama or McCain, with his respective team of strategists and advisors, has opted to spend more time in New York is more telling than any of the poll results in isolation. Obama's campaign signals that it feels confident in his New York votes, while McCain's team pursues votes in states he is more likely to win. Although New York State supported Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries, its loyal Democratic constituency appears ready to support her once rival, now presidential candidate.