New York Yankees 2008 Offseason

Starting Pitching:

Starting pitching for the Yankees in 2008 will determine the overall fate of the franchise. Major change is necessary in the rotation for the club to have a chance to compete. Last year the Yankees had nine separate starters start six or more games. These starters included Darrell Rasner(6 starts), Matt DeSalvo(6), Tyler Clippard(6), Kei Igawa(12), Philip Hughes(13), Roger Clemens(17), Mike Mussina(27) Chien-Ming Wang(30), and Andy Pettitte(34). Roger Clemens' playing days are effectively over as current news suggests he is strongly favoring retirement and that he will work with the Astros. At best he would offer an absurdly overpriced half season and thus will not be a factor with the Yankees next season baring a pitching shortage emergency. Andy Pettitte has opted out of his sixteen million dollar contract and appears to be favoring retirement. The Yankees must make a concerted effort to retain Pettitte, but this appears to be unlikely. For the purpose of this article I am going to assume the Pettitte is unable to be resigned. The remaining top starters remain with the team but losing two of the top four starters in terms of starts shows the obvious need for other pitchers to fill the newly created void.

Chein-Ming Wang has turned into an annual Cy Young candidate and is clearly the ace of the staff. He has proven to be more than capable as the number one starter. Averaging a 3.70 era, Wang was able to dominate the lineups he faced with his ground ball generating sinker. Philip Hughes arrived with a splash in 2007 pitching a no-hitter against the Rangers until succumbing to an injury late in the game. This young prodigy will fill either the number two or three starter position and continue to progress as he gains experience. Injuries remain a concern, but Hughes appears ready to take on the responsibility if he can become more consistent from start to start. Expect his era to be much lower than the 4.46 he posted in 2007. Joba Chamberlain, the rookie fireballer that turned heads following his call up appears to be ready to take over either the number two or three starter role with the team. Joba's mesmerizing .038 era and thirty four strikeouts in twenty our innings shows that he is the real deal. It is likely that Joba will make the move to the rotation if the Yankees are able to resign Mariano Rivera or acquire a frontline closer. Joba has the pure talent necessary to make the transition to his natural role as a starter and should encounter little difficultly. The speed and break on his pitches will decrease in the new role as energy must be conserved to go deep into games. However, his stuff is quality and should be more than enough to achieve success.

With the front end of the rotation solidified the Yankees must look to the back end of the rotation. Ian Kennedy was very impressive during his stint with the Yankees this year and will most likely start the season as the number four starter. Kennedy posted an impressive 1.89 era and fifteen strikeouts in nineteen innings. Clearly, Kennedy has quality stuff to get the job done and should do an adequate job in this role on an everyday basis. Due to 3 second year player filling up the middle of the rotation it is likely the Yankees will use Mike Mussina as a number five starter. This stalwart struggled during the season, but appears to have enough in the tank to provide for a number five starter. Youngsters DeSalvo and Clippard will have the opportunity to compete for starting jobs, but the Yankees are unlikely to include such great quantities of untested youth in the starting rotation unless absolutely necessary. Expect these two to start the year in AAA or possibly the bullpen. Kei Igawa can effectively be ruled out of the starting rotation due to his abysmal performance in the majors. The imports 6.25 era and overall ineffectiveness was inexcusable.

The starting rotation projects as follows:

1. Wang

2. Hughes

3. Chamberlain

4. Kennedy

5. Mussina

This projected rotation is merely a function of perceived effectiveness in 2008. It is highly possible the Girardi will place a pitcher between Hughes and Chamberlain as both are hard throwers. Someone that is a change of pace would be beneficial as teams would not have the luxury of seeing the same style pitcher on consecutive days.

Some may wonder why I have not included any free agent pitchers in the starting rotation. Simply put, this year's crop of free agent pitchers is downright dismal. There is no impact starting pitchers in free agency. The Yankees would be hard pressed to improve over their homegrown and preexisting talent especially when the price of free agent pitchers is factored in.

While trade rumors will run rampant as is the case with the offseason I see little prospect of a major trade occurring. At best the Yankees will get a one year rental of a pitcher past his prime such as the case may be with Johan Santa. The Yankees may deal to get a veteran starter to sure up the backend of the rotation and fill the spot Kennedy occupies in my projection. However, to guess who this may be is nearly impossible due to the quantity of pitchers that could fill this role. The Yankees may be satisfied with staying put in the pitching aspect of free agency so they can make a move in 2009 when several quality pitchers will be available. These projected free agents include Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and several midlevel pitchers. The Yankees would be better off waiting a year and then breaking the bank on one of these superstar pitchers.

The addition of what appears to be three new starters is a great signifier of change in this organization. It is a changing of the guard that is resulting from an influx of quality youth talent. This changing of the guard was initiated by Wang and the torch is being carried on by the three second year players. The dividends of investing in the farm system have begun to bear fruit. Since the renewed focus on developing homegrown talent, Yankee fans have witness a variety of fresh, affordable talent. Wang has established himself as a dominant sinkerball pitcher, while Hughes and Chamberlain's careers are blossoming.

Bullpen

Outside of Mariano Rivera, the Yankees bullpen has had a constant struggle to find reliable relievers. Joe Torre burned out the arms of relievers such as Tanyon Sturtz and Scott Proctor as a result of his overreliance on a select few relievers. Yankee fans should be hopeful that Girardi can discover a more appropriate work load for relievers so that they can stay fresh throughout the season and hopefully the playoffs. The Yankee's bullpen will feature a variety of new faces this year due to departures and position changes.

Joba Chamberlain added instant electricity to the Yankee bullpen posting mind numbing statistics and reenergized the entire Yankee team late in the season during the playoff stretch. However, the man with lightning in his arm is unlikely to be a member of the bullpen. Rather, Joba will be moved back to his natural starting position. If the Yankees are unable to resign Mariano Rivera Joba could potentially fill in as the closer, but this appears to be unlikely.

Marino Rivera has been the lifeblood of the Yankee bullpen for more than a decade anchoring the often otherwise weak aspect of the Yankee teams and helping nail down World Series wins. Despite Rivera's insistence on testing the free agent waters This Yankees must make Rivera's signing a priority as there are no other legitimate closers to be found on the free agent market. Brian Cashman appears ready to offer Rivera a highly competitive offer. Rivera will almost certainly remain with the Yankees as the closer by signing what appears to be a 3 year 35 to 40 million dollar contract.

Luis Vizcaino is another bullpen free agent that should be a Yankee priority. Under the tutelage of Mariano Rivera, Vizcaino showed signs of great improvement and flashes of brilliance as a setup man. The Yankees appear eager to resign Vizcaino, and as a result he should remain with the team for at least one more year.

Due to Kyle Farnsworth's monster contract it appears unlikely that he will see a change of uniforms. The bulky contract makes him nearly impossible to move. Yankee fans will have to endure one more year of the blazing fastball sans movement, and the slider without slide.

Farnsworth will see limited action as a member of the bullpen and will contribute little to the team.

Every bullpen is in need of a long reliever. Look for either starter DeSalvo or Clippard to fill this role. Both of these players have shown the effectiveness and stamina to fill this role aptly. Additionally, having one of these players on the team will provide the availability of a spot starter providing additionally flexibility to the roster. Expect DeSalvo to win the spot while Clippard matures as a starter in AAA.

The abysmal depth of the free agent market extends to middle relievers. The price of relievers in conjunction with the ability of the pitchers makes it unlikely that the Yankees will acquire a legitimate reliever this offseason. Expect the Yankees to acquire a veteran reliever if the need arises, but the Yankees will probably look to within the organization to fill out the rest of the bullpen.

Expect Brian Bruney to make a reappearance with the Yankees this season. Bruney showed flashes of brilliance in past stints with the club and could prove to be a reliable reliever. Expect Bruney to improve upon his 4.68 era and be a regular contributor for the team.

Chris Britton posted an impressive 3.55 era in eleven appearances. Expect this youngster to be given a chance to prove himself on a regular basis with the team this year. Britton appears ready to make the jump up to the big club for real and should be a solid contributor coming out of the pen.

Ross Ohlendorf was impressive during his brief stint with the Yankees this season posting an impressive 2.84 era. People have been high on the potential of Ohlendorf since his selection in the fourth round of the 2004 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. He appears poised to enter the role of reliever in 2008. Ross had a fantastic 2.84 era in his four appearances. Ohlendorf will be given a chance to compete for a bullpen spot and spring training and to make the opening day roster.

Every successful bullpen needs at least one left handed reliever. Expect Ron Villone, Sean Henn and Chase Wright to compete for this important position. Wright and Henn both had an era above seven while Villone posted a 4.25 era. Due to the quantity of young pitchers in the bullpen I expect Villone to be named the left handed specialist on opening day. However, expect Villone to be kept on a short leash. If Villone struggles expect him to be replaced by either Wright or Henn. Wright and Henn are expected to start the year at AAA.

The Yankees showed a great deal of faith in the young Edwar Ramirez allotting him 21 appearances. Despite posting a subpar era the Yankees appear to like him very much. Expect him to compete for a roster spot and improve upon his 2007 campaign in 2008. Expect Ramirez to start the year in AAA where he will be given a chance to further mature.

The projected bullpen is as follows:

Closer: Mariano Rivera

Setup: Luis Vizcaino

LRP: Villone

LR: DeSalvo

RP: Farnsworth

RP: Britton

RP: Bruney

RP: Ohlendorf

The Yankees bullpen will continue the youth trend that can be seen in the starting rotation. Impact relievers are tough to find as their arms are only good for a few season. There are no marquee relievers with fresh arms that the Yankees can acquire. It makes no monetary sense for the Yankees to shell out large quantities of money on mediocre relievers or burned out former stars. It is unlikely that the Yankees could improve their pen through free agent acquisitions and while a trade is possible nothing looms on the horizon at this point. The Yankees bullpen will not be formidable in 2008 and will be average at best. However, improvement takes time and if the Yankees lean on the new crop of youngsters the pen will galvanize and become effective once more as it was during the glory days.

Infield

The Yankees infield was an interesting situation coming into the 2008 season offseason. The middle of the infield appears to be set in stone, but the corner infield positions looked to be vastly different then this past season.

The Yankees have a myriad of options at first base. Doug Mientkiewicz proved to be an able fielder and a decent fielder. However, after 2007 his contract expired and the Yankees appear unlike to resign him. Brian Cashman appears poised to give Jason Giambi the starting role and give the DH role to another player. It appears that Shelly Duncan, Andy Philips and Josh Phelps will compete for the role of backup first basemen on days which Giambi rests or is the designated hitter. The Yankees would be smart to shop the power hitting Duncan to teams in need of a DH or slugging first basemen and in return acquire solid bullpen help. It is unlikely that Duncan will find himself on the Yankee roster in 2008 as he is valuable midlevel trade bait. If the Yankees are able to move Johnny Damon look for Giambi to become the fulltime designated hitter.

The Yankees are set for the next decade at second base with the talented Robinson Cano. This youngster batted an impressive .306 and is establishing himself as a Yankee fixture. With his best years ahead of him Cano remain a lock to start at second for many years to come. The midseason acquisition Wilson Betemit should be able to fill in for Cano at second during Cano's off days.

Derek Jeter will continue to be a fixture starting at shortstop for the 2008 Yankees. The Yankee captain will continue to excel while starting at shortstop. Jeter may have lost a step or two, but he remains an excellent shortstop. Despite the tabloid fodder suggesting a switch by Jeter to third this will not happen in 2008. Down the road this situation will arise in which Girardi or another manger asks Jeter to make the switch, but a move so drastic is unnecessary at this point in time. Wilson Betemit will back up at shortstop.

Third base looked to be a huge trouble spot for the Yankees. With the Yankees unwilling to offer a 350 million dollar contract to Alex Rodriguez it seemed certain that the Yankees would be without the MVP slugger's services in 2008. It would have been fiscal insanity to put up that kind of money regardless of Arod's talent. To compound the pain it would have been impossible for the Yankees to come closer to matching the production of this superstar. The Yankees would have had to give up talented prospects to acquire a serviceable replacement. However, both teams were able to swallow their pride and begin negotiations. The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez have appeared to agree to a 10 year, 275 million dollar mega contract, laden with extra incentives. This record setting contract ensure the Yankees will have third base locked down for years to come.

Catcher was another area of concern for the Yankees with stalwart Jorge Posada reaching free agency and declaring a will to negotiate with other teams. However, Cashman prepared a generous offer for Posada who posted a career year in 2007. It was unlikely that Posada would sign with a different team in 2008 after playing his entire career in pinstripes. The Yankees made it a priority to resign the catcher that hit .338. The production by Posada was unmatched by most catchers. With the current state of offensive catchers it would be impossible to replace Posada's offensive production. No other catcher would have as much familiarity with the Yankee pitching staff as Posada. This experience is invaluable and irreplaceable. The Yankees are aware of this and as a result Posada to be back with the Yankees with a lucrative, new contract. Jorge Posada signed a four year 52 million dollar contract, ensuring the Yankees continuity at the catcher position for the next few years. Look for the Yankees to use midseason acquisition Jose Molina as the backup catcher. Molina proved himself worthy during his stint with the Yankees and thus should be expected to return to the team despite filing for free agency.

The projected infield is as follows:

C: Jorge Posada

1B: Giambi / Phillips

2B: Cano

SS: Jeter

3B: Rodriquez

DH: Giambi / Matsui / Damon

Outfield

The outfield is a source of intrigue during the 2008 offseason. The Yankees have four capable outfielders in Abreu, Cabrera, Damon and Matsui. The Yankees exercised a sixteen million dollar option on Abreu solidifying his spot in right field despite his early struggles in 2007. Abreu came on strong at the end of the year finishing with a earning his lucrative option.

Melky Cabrera proved himself to be an excellent option in center field with his exceptional fielding and adequate hitting. Cabrera hit a solid .273 and has extra value as a switch hitter. His switch hitting coupled with that of Posada will provides Girardi with a large amount of flexibility in creating a lineup. The "Milk Man" will be a solid contributor for the Yankees in 2008.

With two outfield positions filled and two high priced outfields remaining the Yankees will be forced to make a difficult decision. The Yankees are infatuated with Damon's ability as a leadoff hitter. However, Damon's already poor outfield skills have deteriorated further in the past few years. The Yankees must realize that Damon's defensive liabilities far outweigh any hitting value he may add to the team. Damon may occasionally start in left or center, but will not be an everydayplayer. Matsui is a solid fielder and hitter that would be a much better option in left field. Matsui's 25 homeruns and .285 average were valuable contributions in 2007. Expect Matsui to DH more often in 2008 to keep fresh, but he will garner the majority of left field starts. Expect another productive year from Matsui.

Look for the Yankees to attempt to move Damon in return for a combination of bullpen help and various prospects. Due to Damon's large contract he will be difficult to move, but look for the Yankees to be flexible in moving him. Damon will be a productive bench player by bring speed and quality pinch hitting off the bench. On days he does play he will be a potent leadoff hitter. If Damon remains with the team expect him to contribute offensively.

The projected outfield is as follows:

RF: Abreu

CF: Cabrera

LF: Matsui / Damon

Bench:

The Yankee bench will play in an important role in helping the Yankees achieve success in 2008. Jose Molina will play the role as backup catcher giving Posada much needed off days and relief late in games. Wilson Betemit will play a utility role similar to that of Miguel Cairo in years past. Betemit will see greater amounts of playing time though due to his versatility and could see time at any of the infield positions. Andy Philips is the likely candidate to act as the secondary first basemen late in games and on days when Giambi is the designated hitter. The Yankees seem to enjoy the play of youngster Bronson Sardinha who batted an impressive .333 during his time with the Yankees and will likely compete for the role as utility outfielder. Expect this youngster to join the team at some point in the season. However, expect Johnny Damon to start the year as utility outfielder.

The projected bench is as follows:

C: Molina

U: Betemit

1B: Philips

OF: Damon

The 2008 will be remembered as a changing of the guard for the New York Yankees. Few Yankees from the glory years of the 90s remain. The injection of talented youth into the organization at the major league level may result in growing pains at first. However, in the long run this youth movement is necessary to revitalize the organization as a whole. This year's roster has some glaring holes, especially in the bullpen, but will still be able to compete at a high level for a playoff spot. Through smart acquisitions and fiscal reasonability the Yankees will be able to solidify the foundation they are building for the future. The pursuit of progress is often painful, but the dividends it pays are more than worth the trouble.

Sources

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2007.shtml

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=29370