Newsweek: Why Democrats Lose

In an article called "Here They Go Again," posted on the Newsweek web site and set for publication in the magazine's September 29 issue, Jonathan Darman writes that Democrats should recognize that America is more conservative than they would like to believe.

"To Democrats," he says, "it simply does not make sense. The past eight years, have, they say, been disastrous for America. The military is beleaguered.... The nation...has been disgraced.... The economy has collapsed. The financial system is broken. Eighty percent of voters believe the nation is on the wrong track. Yet...the Democratic nominee for the presidency only slightly leads the Republican standard bearer in most polls."

It's true. The latest RealClearPolitics averages have Senator Barack Obama leading Republican rival Senator John McCain by less than three points, 47.7 percent to 45.1 percent. With everything seemingly going against Republicans this year, the obvious question is why isn't Barack Obama running away with this thing?

Darman says the prevailing mantra of Democrats, that Republican distractions and lies, packaged and sold with Karl Rove tactics, obscure the issues and problems that Democrats try to address in their campaigning, simply does not suffice.

Instead, Darman writes, the Republican Party "...has been the conservative party in an essentially conservative nation." The fact that Democrats have won only when running centrist campaigns, while Republicans have won seven of the last ten presidential elections only serves to bolster Darman's case.

And when Republicans do win, it is more often than not a blowout (Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1980 and 1984, Bush the Elder in 1988, all cited by Darman). The only significant Democrat wins came in 1992 and 1996. Jimmy Carter, Darman notes, is the only presidential candidate fielded by Democrats in nearly 50 years to win 50 percent of the popular vote.

If Darman's thesis is correct, then Barack Obama could be in trouble. He is rated by some analysts as the most liberal member of the Senate and his campaign is centered around the idea that government needs to be more involved in people's lives. The idea that government is the answer has been largely discredited, Darman says, "...by the decline of the postwar boom, the failure of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society and an American military defeat" in Vietnam.

Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, the only Democrats to win the White House since Lyndon Johnson, "...surveyed a center-right nation and concluded: 'If you can't beat 'em, join 'em,'" Darman says. Still, Darman says, Obama is well-positioned to win the presidency. "For the first time in 40 years," he says, "the left has a real chance to sway the center's notion of the proper role of the state."