NFL 2011 Week 11 & 12 Regular Season Picks, Final Revision

Week 11 has a tough game to pick with the Jets playing Denver and that simple yet complicated to beat offense...the Bays are playing in the Green's Bay. Dallas goes to Washington to see if Cowboys can beat the Indians as Texas expects. Buffalo goes to Miami who have won this year but can they beat the Bills in a divisional game. San Diego slides downhill into Chicago trying to stop sliding...uncontrollably. Atlanta is a big fave against Tennessee in a home game for the Falcs. There are fourteen games for us to watch this week...see how my brain has analyzed the games this week...last week--Week 10-- I was 9-7 against the spread and 10-6 in straight picks.

Week 12 has three Thanksgiving games that are the best three I can remember for years...Detroit (versus Green Bay) is good this year which is a change...Miami (versus Dallas) is on a three-game winning streak so that's good for everyone...San Fran at Baltimore is very intriguing with the 49ers sitting at 9-1 facing the Ravens at 7-3. This is a battle of head coaching brothers: it's the battle of the Harbaughs. Television ratings should be through the roof for this trio of games that are meaningful for a change...I'll watch all three for sure.

Here's the week's games. To see a video with my Week 12 picks click HERE.

Week 12
Green Bay Vs Detroit...this Green Bay versus Detroit Thanksgiving game is a watchable game for the first time in a while...undefeated Green Bay versus the Lions who can pile up points nearly as well as the Pack.
Winner...Green Bay...Against the spread...Detroit (+6.5)

Miami Vs Dallas...this is a league of trends and who can stop the "trending up" team from sinking them: I'm speaking of the three-game trend of winning by the Dolphins. The Cowboys under Romo are winners in November and this is important for Dallas but no one wants to lose, not even Miami who have to win them all to make the playoffs.
Winner...Dallas...against the spread...Miami (+7)

San Fran Vs Baltimore...this is of course the battle of the coaching Harbaugh brothers with both doing well...surprise goes to the left coast this year as the 49ers came from nowhere to go 9-1 though in a division of pastries: does that make them stronger than the Ravens because of that lack of competition or weaker..or is it inconsequential? I think the Ravens are stronger: who is brave enough to pick the 49ers this week? Not me...
Winner...Baltimore...against the spread...Baltimore (-3.5)

Minnesota Vs Atlanta...this Ponder-ous team will be running awkwardly not backwardly with Adrian Peterson having a high-ankle sprain: that hurts. I changed my spread pick in mid-type: this Minnesota team is just three points short of the Falcons on paper. I still pick Atlanta to win though.
Winner...Atlanta...against the spread...Atlanta (-9.5)

Carolina Vs Indy...can the Colts win one this year...the team looks despondent and they face a possible onslaught of offensive firepower by Cam Newton: it doesn't look good for the Indiana horse-people this week, but the good thing is you can score on the Panthers. Beware amigos: Los appurones pueden lastimar!
Winner...Carolina...against the spread...Carolina (-4)

Cleveland vs Cincinnati...this Browns team has had spurts or sputters you could say like someone trying to keep their car running on watery, watered down fuel. Cincy should dominate this one with enough firepower to crush the Browns...will you be the ones outside of Cleveland who tune into this one?
Winner...Cincinnati...against the spread...Cincinnati (-7.5)

Buffalo Vs New York Jets...the injuries have hit the Bills hard and they look to be hoping for some players to rehab and contribute positively...I think the Bills are sliding on ice.
Winner...Jets...against the spread...Jets (-8.5)

Tampa Bay Vs Tennessee...this a good game for an upset: the Buccaneers are the type of team that can beat the Titans...
Winner...Tampa Bay...against the spread...Tampa Bay (+3.5)

Arizona Vs St Louis...this is the battle of the birds or Arizona and the team formerly know as the Cardinals...what is a Cardinal doing in the desert anyhow: looking for water most likely...these are both thirsty teams with the Rams scoring a ridiculous 12 points a game. I don't know how to bet on the Rams (with real money) but home teams win sometimes when they shouldn't...since I'm not betting on this one I feel good. These teams went to overtime in Week 9...
Winner...St Louis...against the spread...(Arizona +3.5)

Houston Vs Jacksonville...the Matt Leinart era has started at least for this year and Jacksonville has no business winning this game even with the Texans backup qb playing...look for a low point total.
Winner...Houston...against the spread...Houston (-3.5)

Washington Vs Seattle...this long holiday road game for the untalented Redskins could be a home team romp for for the Sea Birds though neither team has any offense to speak of...what is the mystery offensive rabbit that Shanahan will pull out of his hat for this one?
Winner...Seattle...against the spread...Seattle (-4.5)

Chicago vs Oakland...the youthful Caleb Haney is on stage this week against Carson Palmer who is still learning his team's strengths...I think the Bears are good enough defensively to beat the Raiders but Carson Palmer is the trump card the Raiders have in this one...
Winner...Oakland...against the spread...Oakland (+1.5)

New England Vs Philadelphia...the Young-led Eagles are hard to defense...I'm surprised the Eagles didn't go to the two-headed tandem of Young and Vick before: maybe Vick had a say on that. This New England team is explosive and maybe a running quarterback like Young can limit the possessions of both teams and keep the score down so the Eagles can manage the score better. In a wide open game the Patriots will win this one...
Winner...Eagles...against the spread...Eagles (+3)

Denver Vs San Diego...how does this San Diego team lose so many games...turnovers. They need to win this one but will they figure out the simple formula the Broncos are using to win with Tebow...this home game should be theirs but will it be?
Winner...San Diego...against the spread...Denver (+7)

Pittsburgh Vs Kansas City...Tyler Palko welcome to your former town...Palko of Pittsburgh will be daunted this week as last week against the New England...I'm seeing a wipe out even though the Steelers will likely be traveling into bad weather on a holiday weekend. These Steelers are gritty...
Winner...Pittsburgh...against the spread...Pittsburgh (-10.5)

New York Giants Vs New Orleans...the physical Giants will be facing the Saints on Monday night and it will be a tight game I believe. The Saints are coming off a bye week and should win in what will be a physical game...
Winner...New Orleans...against the spread...New York Giants (+6.5)


To see a video with my Week 11 picks click HERE.

Here are the Week 11 match ups and my picks...the last team named in the match up is the home team.

Week 11
New York Jets Vs Denver Broncos...road faves usually win, but this is an unusual one with the short week for New York and them traveling to the Rockies.
Winner...Jets...Against the spread...Denver (+5)

Carolina Vs Detroit...injuries are significant in this one with the Lions injured and hampered at QB...Carolina has come back to reality: they're short on experience at wide receiver and might lose even without the Lions starting QB in the lineup.
Winner...Detroit...Against the spread...Detroit (-7)

Tampa Bay Vs Green Bay...the Pack is rolling and the Bucs are not able to beat winning teams. There will be a lot of points in this game I would guess...
Winner...Green Bay...Against the spread...Green Bay (-14.5)

Oakland vs Minnesota...this is a long ride for Oakland into the frozen North...the Vikings aren't experienced and Carson Palmer should put up big points against a young Vikings team who will have to run the ball to keep the score manageable.
Winner...Oakland...Against the spread...Oakland (pick 'em)

Tennessee Vs Atlanta...that small defensive front for the Titans should have problems against the Falcons...the game ought to get away from them as they fatigue in the 3rd quarter.
Winner...Atlanta...Against the spread...Atlanta (-6.5)

Jacksonville Vs Cleveland...this could be a really low-scoring game with the home team getting a slight advantage, but the 1.5 point fave status for the Browns doesn't impress me. A standard spread for equal teams is a 3-point home fave...Even so, I'll pick the Browns in a chiller-thriller 6-4...that's if anyone scores at all. Then, of course, we have overtime if we really have to have a winner.
Winner...Cleveland...Against the spread...Cleveland (-1.5)

Dallas Vs Washington...Dallas under Romo wins in November even against their nemesis the Redskins...the Redskins are lacking experience and also talent though every NFL team has shining stars.
Winner...Dallas...Against the spread...Washington (+7.5)

Buffalo Vs Miami...the perturbed and particular Dolfans should support their team...Reggie Bush has found his stride, sort of but he needs Moore QB support. The Miami team speed is always an issue to deal with, but I think the Bills defense can out-maneuver those obs-tackles.
Winner...Buffalo...Against the spread...Buffalo (+2)

Cincinnati Vs Baltimore...the Ravens are a big fave in this one and I think the Bengals are better than the 9-points they're unfavored by...the Ravens are good and ought to win, but I'm not sure about the big points in this divisional game.
Winner...Ravens...Against the spread...Cincinnati (+9)

Seattle Vs St Louis...Seattle is coming off a big win over Baltimore in Week 10 who mailed it in and lost a close one...St Louis beat Cleveland in a close one last week...this game could be in the 20s with both teams scoring added up...this is a divisional game, though, so maybe these teams will show some offense.
Winner...St Louis...Against the spread...St Louis (-2.5)

Arizona vs San Francisco...Arizona has won two straight while San Fran has won seven straight...the 49ers have beat the point spread every week in most places with the NFL number one defense and timely offense: this team has had few flashes of offensive firepower, but they're playing a depleted Arizona team.
Winner...San Francisco...Against the spread...Arizona (+10)

San Diego vs Chicago...the Chargers have lost four in a row while Chicago has found their stride...
Winner...Chicago...Against the spread...Chicago (-3.5)

Philadelphia Vs New York Giants...the Eagles are stumbling with Vick injured...the Giants find an offense to win even with injuries...the Eagles might give us Vick for a cup of coffee since he has , reportedly, two broken ribs: OUCH! Kafka is their 2nd stringer, but Vince Young is there, too and he has similar skills as Vick with the running and all that. Don't jump over the number two though, please. Young is a way bigger version of Vick: the Eagles, of course, still have to stop the Giants. I don't think they're up for it unless Vince Young can run amok...
Winner...Eagles...Against the spread...Eagles (+3.5)

Kansas City Vs New England...this is a long road trip for the Chiefs who lack a big-play offense...unfamiliar teams sometimes befuddle even very good teams, but KC is reportedly--I'm never sure about injury reports--still nursing injuries at QB. They lost Jamaal Charles the Pro Bowl running back a month ago so they're light on weapons though everyone can score on the Pats. This might be a shootout with the Pats scoring in the 40s and even the Chiefs in the 30s. Can you name the Chiefs present starting QB?
Winner...New England...Against the spread...New England (-14)

Byes in Week 11...Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh

Resources:
ESPN.go.com