NFL Draft Notes - First 5 Picks

The 2009 NFL Draft is just days away. There are a lot of unknowns going in and like most fans; I am on pins and needles, awaiting my team's picks. As I looked over a few of the mock drafts experts have posted over the last few days I have begun to get a picture of what each team will do, and so I wanted to take a few moments to look at the first five teams and make a few comments about what I think they might do and whether or not they are making the right move. In my 'Final Analysis' you will find out if I "Buy" or "Sell" the move as a GM.

Pick 1 - Detroit Lions. It isn't a secret that the Lions are itching to reinvent themselves. Just a few days ago they introduced a new logo and new uniforms to the public to generate a buzz. Now reports are saying that they have already begun negotiations with Georgia QB Matt Stafford to have his deal worked out before draft day. Apparently this is their guy. I think it's a bad move. The Lions are not a strong enough team to make this pick and like the Browns, Bengals, 49ers and Raiders before them, they are asking for trouble reaching for a QB with this pick. Financially it will be a huge set back. QB's are big money and taking an unproven player at this position this early has proven to be like walking over sinking sand.

Final Analysis: Sell

Pick 2 - St. Louis Rams. Jason Smith from Baylor is slotted by most draft sites to go with this pick. He is a 6'5 309lb offensive lineman who is thought to be a lock to start at left tackle. This is a solid pick for a team who needs an anchor at this crucial position. We have evidence from the Joe Thomas pick of the Browns in 2007 that teams who solidify their front line on offense can make huge strides. That's what I expect here. Look for St. Louis to rebound in the coming year with Jason Smith in the fold.

Final Analysis: Buy

Pick 3 - Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are a young and rebuilding team with a lot of holes to fill. But, most draft boards have them selecting Aaron Curry, LB, from Wake Forest. He is the best available player on the board and they would make a wise choice to select him here. He has all the talent, physical tools, and drive that a team looks for in a defensive leader and he should adjust well to the NFL game. He also is a superb player from a personnel standpoint as he is nothing if not a class act. No doubt that the Chiefs would be well on their way to legitimacy with this pick.

Final Analysis: Buy

Pick 4 - Seattle Seahawks. This is not as cut and dry as the first three picks. Some analysts expect Michael Crabtree to go at this point. He would be the offensive weapon they need to rejuvenate the aging Matt Hasselbeck by introducing a brilliant target for him to throw the football to. There is no other receiver with such potential. However, some boards have the Seahawks picking Brian Orakpo, the standout DE from Texas. The 2008 Bronco Nagurski Award winner instantly provides a dominant presence on the defensive side of the ball and we all know the old adage that "Defense wins Championships." My view is that Seattle would do well going with Orakpo. But, I think if they want to make sure they can instantly guarantee a playoff spot in '09, Crabtree is the pick.

Final Analysis: Crabtree /Buy; Orakpo / Sell

Pick 5 - Cleveland Browns. I have a vested interest in this pick. This is the team I follow so what happens here has a huge impact on how my 2009 turns. Some say that they pick the guy Seattle passes on. So, either Crabtree or Orakpo falls here. However, word around Cleveland is that the Browns are so high on QB Mark Sanchez that a trade is imminent that sends Brady Quinn out of town so they can grab Sanchez here. There are so many scenarios being floated around that it's hard to get my bearings and make a serious prediction.

However, I think the best choice is Crabtree if available. He can either team with Braylon Edwards to give Quinn a real chance to prove we got it right taking him in 2007, or he can signal that Edwards is out the door. Either option works in my mind. I just think that it is a mistake to let go of a hard working QB prospect that showed flashes of strong leadership for another unknown QB commodity in Sanchez is a poor decision and a possible waste of an opportunity.

If Orakpo falls here this too is a no brainer. The Browns defense needs a physical play maker who can cause problems for opposing QB's and play solidly in a 3-4 scheme. He could be a real leader for a group that lacks identity and an intimidating presence. Plus, you can never have enough versatile linebackers who can rush the passer.

Mark Sanchez is a great talent. I just don't feel he is the right answer for the Cleveland Browns. If Quinn doesn't work out, they can find a QB next year. If Sanchez fails, the team would once again face a terrible set back at the QB position.

Final Analysis: Crabtree/ Buy; Orakpo / Buy; Sanchez/ Sell

Sources:

Walterfootball.com

NFLdraftdog.com