NFL: Early AFC Playoff Predictions

The NFL season is far from over, but it seems that the playoff picture is already starting to become clear. Although making pre-Thanksgiving playoff predictions seems a bit premature, I think if you look at the remaining schedules of teams in contention, you can get a pretty good idea of who will be playing through January. In my playoff projections, I took into account the schedules of each NFL team, examined injury reports, and closely examined conference records. With my findings, I have projected the final standings of each NFL division, projected the playoff teams, and also which teams might be surprises.

AFC East: Patriots*, Dolphins, Jets, Bills

The Patriots are clearly the class of the East in 2009, and it will be hard for any of the other division teams to catch them. Sitting at 6-3, the Patriots collapsed against Indianapolis on Monday night, but every time it appears that the Patriots dynasty might crumbled, they find a way to recover. Looking at the remaining schedule, the Patriots have New Orleans on the road, but otherwise do not play a team with better than a 5-4 record the rest of the way out. Look for the Patriots to finish at 12-4 or 11-5, and given that the remaining east teams already have at least five losses each, this division shouldn't be much of a race. Although the Jets and Dolphins are both sitting at 4-5, the Jets clearly have the more difficult remaining schedule. Don't expect either team to make much of a push for the playoffs, but at least they will be better than the Bills. With Dick Jauron out as head coach, Buffalo fans may be hoping for a mid-season miracle, but the likelihood of that happening is about the same as Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas suddenly coming out of retirement.

AFC North: Bengals*, Steelers**, Ravens, Browns

One of the biggest surprises of the 2009 NFL season has been the Cincinnati Bengals. While most might expect the team to slide back to reality, and for the Steelers to take the division title, I'm not so sure that is likely to happen. Since the Bengals took both games against the Steelers this season, their lead is effectively 1.5 games over the Steelers, as they would win a head-to-head tie-breaker scenario for the division. At 7-2 already, the Bengals will play Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit over the next three weeks. Barring an upset, they should be sitting at 10-2 with four games to play. If the Bengals were able to split their remaining four games against Minnesota, San Diego, Kansas City, and the New York Jets, then they would finish 12-4 and force the Steelers to run the table to take the division. With the Steelers still having two games against Baltimore, and playing Green Bay, I think there is a good chance that the Bengals might just take the AFC North. As for the Ravens, they are sitting at 5-4 right now but have too tough of a schedule to make a serious run at the playoffs, which includes two games against Pittsburgh, a trip to Lambeau Field. Finally, the Browns simply look awful. Brady Quinn has taken over as quarterback, but he has no time to throw the ball which has disrupted his mechanics. The Browns not only need to evaluate their quarterback situation, but their entire organization from top to bottom. Cleveland fans deserve better, but the only race they will come close to will be for the #1 overall draft pick.

AFC South: Colts*, Jaguars, Titans, Texans

At 9-0, the Indianapolis Colts have a four game lead in the AFC South, and are in the driver's seat for AFC home field advantage. The Colts may have a chance at going 16-0, but probably would be better off in terms of making a Super Bowl run if they lost sometime before the playoffs. In doing so, they would be able to rest their players and alleviate the emotional toll that the undefeated pressure may put on the entire organization. Perhaps the most interesting division race will be to see who finishes second in the AFC South, as that team will likely be battling for the final wild card playoff spot with the second place team in the AFC West. This projection is assuming that Pittsburgh or Cincinnati will claim the other wild card spot. In comparing the three teams, it appears that the hottest team is the Titans right now, but they also have the most ground to make up in the standings. Jacksonville looks solid but not spectacular, but their success completely relies on the health of Maurice Jones-Drew. With Owen Daniels now out of the lineup in Houston, the Texans appear to be the team with the arrow pointing down. I think the Titans may have the best second-half of the three teams, but not enough to overcome their 0-6 start. Look for the Jaguars to finish around 9-7 and edge out a charging Titans team which should finish around 7-9 or 8-8 along with the Texans.

AFC West: Chargers*, Broncos**, Raiders, Chiefs

After a hot start, the Broncos are fading quickly, but I still think they will make the playoffs. Last year the Patriots didn't make the playoffs at 11-5, but I tend to think the 10-6 or maybe even 9-7 gets the final wild card spot this season. With both the Chargers and Broncos sitting at 6-3, both teams could potentially make the playoffs with 4-3 or maybe even 3-4 finishes. Of the two, the Broncos have the easier schedule, but the immediate edge goes to the winner of their head-to-head matchup in Week 11. I'm not sure that the Broncos will completely regain their early season form, but with two games against Kansas City, and a home game left against Oakland, they should be no worse than 9-7 even if they lose their other four remaining games. I think the Chargers will win the division by a game, but the Broncos will edge out the Jaguars for the final wild card spot. As for the Raiders and the Chiefs, expect both teams to be fighting for last place in the division, and joining the Browns at the bottom of the AFC at season's end.

Playoff Outlook
As early as it may be to project which teams will make the playoffs, it is even earlier to try and decide who will win the playoffs. That being said, I expect the Colts to be the number one overall seed, but I think the Patriots may be the best team when healthy. The Patriots dominated the Colts for three quarters in Indianapolis, but Indianapolis ultimately won the game. If the two teams meet again in the AFC Championship game, expect another epic battle, but I think the Patriots will make their way back to the Super Bowl.

*Divisional Winner
**Wild Card Winner