NFL: Early NFC Playoff Predictions

The NFL season is far from over, but it seems that the playoff picture is already starting to become clear. Although making pre-Thanksgiving playoff predictions seems a bit premature, I think if you look at the remaining schedules of teams in contention, you can get a pretty good idea of who will be playing through January. In my playoff projections, I took into account the schedules of each NFL team, examined injury reports, and closely examined conference records. With my findings, I have projected the final standings of each NFL division, projected the playoff teams, and also which teams might be surprises.

NFC East: Cowboys*, Eagles, Giants, Redskins

In recent years, the NFC East has been the premier division in the NFL. At least three if not all four teams had enough talent to make a run at a title. However, in 2009 there is a strong possibility that only one NFC East team will even make the playoffs, so much so that I am predicting it. In looking at playoff possibilities out of the NFC East, you can immediately eliminate the Redskins. With six losses already, the Redskins would likely have to win at least six, if not all seven, of their remaining games to make the playoffs. They simply do not have the offensive balance to make that kind of run. The problem, when looking at the division race is that none of the other three teams want to seize the division either. The Giants have lost four games in a row, the Eagles have lost three of their last five, and when the Cowboys appeared to have the upper hand, they got lambasted at Lambeau. Did I mention that none of them have easy schedules? Expect the NFC East to once again beat up on each other, and any three of these teams could take the division, but my prediction is the Cowboys if for no other reason than they currently have the one game edge.

NFC North: Vikings*, Packers**, Bears, Lions

Is there anyone happier than the Minnesota Vikings at this point? No, they don't have the best record in the NFL, but they might be the best team. The addition of Brett Favre has made this team a Super Bowl contender, and as long as he and more importantly Adrian Peterson stay healthy, they will be tough to beat. On the defensive side, Jared Allen has been phenomenal with 10.5 sacks in just nine games. With a three game lead over Green Bay with just seven games to play, the Vikings pretty much have the NFC North division wrapped up, but don't count out the Packers still making a playoff run. At 5-4, the Packers are currently tied with the Falcons, Giants, and Eagles for fifth best record in the NFC. I think the Packers are a better team than their record indicates, and I look for them to finish the season strong, possibly at 10-6. Although the Bears are sitting just a game behind the Packers at 4-5, they haven't shown the ability to consistently move their offense against good defenses. Also, while their defense is good, it is not close to the same level that it was when they went to the Super Bowl a few years ago. Look for the Bears to put up a fight but fall short, likely at 7-9 or 8-8. As for the Lions, don't hold your breath. The Lions need to continue to get better and develop Matthew Stafford, but they won't get anywhere near the playoffs this year.

NFC South: Saints*, Falcons**, Panthers, Buccaneers

The NFC South is very similar to the NFC North in terms of division makeup. Like the Vikings, the Saints are running away with the division at 9-0, while the Falcons are sitting at 5-4 and looking to make a playoff push. The Panthers have too many offensive holes, just like the Bears, while the Buccaneers are in full rebuilding mode with a rookie quarterback, just like the Lions. While the Saints have the division wrapped up, they do have some very important status games ahead of them, including a matchup with Super Bowl contenders the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys. The games, particularly with the Patriots, will serve as a measuring stick for the Saints who have been prone to giving up a bunch of points on defense. While the Saints are looking to prove that they are Super Bowl contenders, the Falcons are looking to prove that they are a legitimate playoff team. At 5-4 they are on the cusp of the playoff picture, but with two games remaining against the Buccaneers and a matchup against the Bills, the Falcons should be in good position to make a run in the final seven weeks of the season. Look for the Falcons to capture the wild card at 10-6 and look to avenge their early playoff exit last season. With the Panthers, you have a team that runs the ball well, plays good defense, but has not been able to find an effective passing game. With remaining games against high scoring teams like the Saints, Patriots, and Vikings, the Panthers simply won't be able to score enough points to find themselves in playoff contention, with a 7-9 finish appearing most likely. As for the Buccaneers, it's going to be a long season, but one that should show flashes of their talented youth. Look for Josh Freeman to have some big time games, but don't expect many tallies in the win column.

NFC West: Cardinals*, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams

Just as the NFC North and South mirrored one another, the NFC East and West have similar scenarios as well. There are no dominant teams in the West, but the heavy favorite to take the division is the Arizona Cardinals. I really wanted to choose the 49ers to pass the Cardinals, because I think they have an energy and passion that will only intensify as the playoffs near, but I just don't see it happening. The Cardinals and 49ers each have games remaining against the Rams and Lions, but the Cardinals play the Rams twice while the 49ers only once. Assuming the Cardinals win all three games against the Rams and Lions, that would put them at a minimum of nine wins on the season, meaning that the 49ers would need to beat the Cardinals a second time head-to-head, as well as winning at least four if not five of the other remaining six games. While certainly possible, it seems that the Cardinals have to really struggle not to take the NFC West division. At 3-6, look for the Seahawks to have a slightly better winning percentage in the final seven games, possibly finishing the season at 6-10 if they can get by the Rams, Buccaneers, and either the Texans or Titans. I haven't seen enough production from them on either side of the ball to think they will be better than that, and quarterback Matt Hasselback's health is always a concern. As for the Rams, they really don't deserve to be mentioned in a playoff projection article, aside from the fact that their matchups should be guaranteed wins for playoff contenders. They have shown no improvement in the past few years and don't seem to have a plan constructed to do anything but lose.

Playoff Outlook

As early as it may be to project which teams will make the playoffs, it is even earlier to try and decide who will win the playoffs. That being said, I fully expect the Saints and Vikings to earn the first-round playoff byes, but I'm concerned about the Saints' defense in the playoffs. I think the Vikings are the most complete team in the NFC, and have a roster built to make the best run at the Super Bowl. Will they get there? Who knows, but as long as they stay healthy, they will be awfully tough to beat.

*Division Winner
**Wild Card Winner