NFL Expert Picks-Free NFL Football Picks Week 4

Whoa! That's about all I have to say for week 3. New England gets pounded by Miami (definitely not one of our good NFL expert picks), Cincinnati gives the Super Bowl champs a game, Oakland almost beats the Bills, Chicago loses a 10 point lead with 3 minutes to play, and the Rams, Chiefs, and Lions are all contemplating forfeiting the rest of their games. Good thing these are free NFL football picks, huh. Eh, we won all these anyways except the Dolphins, but whatever.

One thing I want to share with all you who like to actually wager on these games, the Best NFL Picks Free website went 4-0 on the football spreads they sent to all their subscribers. In those NFL expert picks were Tennessee -5, Philadelphia -3, the Over in the NY Giants/Cincinnati game (42), and the Over in the Denver/New Orleans game (51). Definitely a nice boost to those who took advantage of them. If you want to be a part of the action then either leave your email address here in the comment area or head over to the Best NFL Picks Free website and subscribe there for free NFL football picks.

Okay, so are you ready for our NFL expert picks for week 4? Once again there are storylines out the ying-yang, so get ready for some interesting free NFL football picks for this Sunday. We're still hitting the NFL handicapping average of 63% for picking every game. However, through the Best NFL Picks Free newsletter where we give out our favorite college and NFL expert picks we're a whopping 10-2 overall. So someone out there is making some jack! Alright, let's get to it.

(9pts)Denver at Kansas City (Den -9.5)(46.5)

Well, you don't really need NFL expert picks to pull down the winner of this game do you? What if I told you the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 against Denver at Arrowhead since 2003. Then again, they didn't have Tyler Thigpen behind center, a couple of rookies in the secondary, and a defense that is giving up 357 yards per game. Even though they are ranked 25th as of week 3, they only give up 153 yards per game through the air. Sounds great right? Except for the fact that they did that against Matt Cassell, JeMarcus Russell, and Matt Ryan.

Denver on the other hand looks like the New England offense of last year, except they don't throw as many 2 yard dumps that go for 10 and 15 yards. Even though they are 3-0 they could easily be 1-2. Things seem to be going there way, and once they saw that K.C. was next on the list you had to know they were licking their jobs. Denver has no defense against the top offenses in the league, but against the Chiefs it could end up being another massacre like they did at Oakland in week 1.

Denver 35 Kansas City 13

(7pts)Cleveland at Cincinnati (Cin -3.5)(44.5)

When it comes to NFL expert picks no one likes seeing the football spreads when Cincinnati and Cleveland are involved. Both teams are the most sporatic and just when you think they're going to be good, they're not. When you expect them to lay down, they don't. Honestly I haven't done bad with either one this year going 4-2 combined. However, when they get together for a showdown you could see 100 points or 10. Basically it's just one of those games where you're glad it's for free NFL football picks.

Considering there is a chance that Brady Quinn will start this week (like I said he would in the preseason), there may be a different element to add to the puzzle. The two teams give up 700 yards per game combined and only 6 yards difference. I have to give the edge to Cincinnati based off their previous performance against the Giants last week on the road. Unfortunately I have to decide and my decision goes towards the Browns. They are most likely getting back Donte Stallworth this week and no matter who starts they will have 3 solid options at WR. The same can't be said for the Bengals.

Cleveland 35 Cincinnati 34

(11pts)Houston at Jacksonville (Jax -7.5)(42)

Over the past 5 meetings at Jacksonville they are 2-3 against the Texans. While I would normally think there is something to this, the current season is a mess for Houston. Still without a place to call home, they have been traveling around getting by both Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Now they play a team that took advantage of an Indy misfortune to get their first win of the season.

Add the point that the Texans give up almost 170 yards per game on the ground and the Jones-Drew/Taylor combo looks like they're back. Houston wideout Andre Johnson is only averaging 47 yards per game and has no touchdowns. Teams will continue to keep him grounded as long as WR Kevin Walter is their #2. The team has been trying too hard to establish a running game and if they don't get the aerial attack going again it could be a long day. We think it will be.

Jacksonville 28 Houston 14

(6pts)Arizona at NY Jets (Jets -1.5)(45)

The storyline revolving around this game is whether or not Brett Favre will play the whole game. Limping around on a bad ankle could hinder is day tremendously and allow the Cardinal's defense to take advantage of his miscues. The good news for the Jets is they're giving up only 86 ypg on the ground. The bad news is they're giving up 211 in the air which ranks 21st in the league. Free NFL football picks shouldn't be so difficult right?

Our NFL expert picks go a little off course here. Arizona 9th in the league for passing yards per game. The biggest thing to look at here is how well they play in back to back road games. It's not so hot at 1-4 in the last 5, but everything we mentioned above is why the line is so small. It will be mild, but we're picking the upset here.

Arizona 21 NY Jets 13

(12pts)San Francisco at New Orleans (N.O. -5.5)(48)

Gramatica kept the Saints from getting their second win of the season not once, but twice. This week they take on a team who looks to have found an offensive rhythm. While the game will most likely be high scoring, we have to keep in mind who the 49ers have played. Then look at the quarterbacks here. J.T. O'Sullivan has looked good, but 2 of the games he's played he's thrown less then 200 yards. However, he has showed us he's a great manager gathering 3 touchdowns with one INT.

New Orleans has played the Niners 4 times in the last seven years and have gone 4-0 during that span. There are questions on both sides of the ball for both teams and even though I would like to take San Francisco here, I can't. The game should come down to special teams and turnovers which the Saints will win. Leaving the 49ers wondering where their season is headed and us thinking these NFL expert picks are pretty easy.

New Orleans 35 San Francisco 24

(5pts)Atlanta at Carolina (Car -7)(39.5)

What in the world happened to Carolina last week? I can tell you it had a lot to do with the turnover that was run in for a touchdown. It basically changed the whole complexion of the game. This week though they'll be back in the win column. See, the Falcons rely so heavily on the run that Atlanta QB Matt Ryan still hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game. I imagine the Panthers will focus on RB Michael Turner and hope they can create turnovers from Falcon's QB.

As far as the Panthers offensive woes go, they do have WR Steve Smith with a week in and plan on utilizing him more this week. Even though the Atlanta pass defense ranks #10 in the league, they've played Detroit, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. Let's see what they do because if they focus on the aerial attack, then Jon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams could be in for big days. It's an interesting game and one we'd like to take Atlanta plus the points, but figure that the Panthers will come away with the win. Probably not the NFL expert picks you were expecting, but hey that's why this is fun.

Carolina 24 Atlanta 21

(4pts)Minnesota at Tennessee (Ten -3)(36)

The Vikes look like they finally got a little mojo back with a crucial win at home last week against the Panthers. I've been saying all along Gus Frerotte would better suit their offense then Tavaris Jackson and hopefully they'll listen. This game is going to be fun to watch just because you kind of feel like you're going back in time. Tennessee QB Kerry Collins and Frerotte have been in the league for a combined 29 years. However, all eyes will be on the young running backs for both teams.

While Tennessee's defense has looked stout, they have played Cincinnati, Houston, and Jacksonville minus 3 offensive linemen. Neither quarterback is remotely mobile so expect a lot of sacks out of these two defenses. Probably a low scoring affair considering their both ranked in the top #10 against the run (Vikings #4, Tennessee #10). The last two years Tennessee is 6-2 against the NFC, while Minnesota is just 2-7 in their last 9 against the AFC and 0-6 since 2005 on the road. That's enough for me to go with the homeys and add them to my NFL expert picks.

Tennessee 20 Minnesota 13

(3pts)Green Bay at Tampa Bay (T.B. -1)(42.5)

Who would of thought Brian Griese would hoist up 67 passes in the air and get over 400 yards out of it. Definitely surprising considering their wide receiving core was without Joey Galloway (although he is becoming ancient in football years). My free NFL football picks regarding this game point towards whether or not he can do it again. If he does, the Packers will definitely capitalize on the interceptions he'll throw (3 against Chicago).

While I'm still not a Aaron Rodgers fan, I will say that he can manage a game. Both teams aren't very good against the pass and oddly enough they are 26th and 27th in the league in total yardage. While you want to think it's going to be a high scoring affair, it probably will be. If the Bucs can give up almost 300 yards passing to Kyle Orton, expect Rodgers to have 50-100 more. The Packers had a mild setback last week, but against the team I think is going to the Super Bowl it's not that big of deal.

Green Bay 27 Tampa Bay 24

(2pts)Buffalo at St. Louis (Buf -8)(42)

You have to love doing NFL expert picks when you have teams like St. Louis to pick against. They have so many problems they should be called America's team. The offensive line is atrocious, the defense is giving up around 38 points a game and now they get the 3-0 Buffalo Bills. Wait a minute. Do they still have a shot of winning this game? Our free NFL football picks think so, and we'll explain why.

Trent Green. Enough said. Okay, I'm being a little fecious, but the last time Trent Green had talent around him, they became a playoff team (Kansas City) and he was throwing for 4,000 yards a year. Then again that was between 2003-2005. He's still one hit away from ending up with a permanent concussion so I really don't have that much faith in him at all. However, 3-9 against the NFC since 2005 throws some red flags up. Buffalo almost took one on the head last week at home against the Raiders. Listen, St. Louis has played the Giants (Super Bowl Champs), @ Seattle (NFC West Champs), and @ Philadelphia. Tough opening schedule, which is why I'm taking the upset here and the points.

St. Louis 27 Buffalo 19

(13pts)San Diego at Oakland (S.D. -7.5)(45.5)

Okay, last week's free NFL football picks had San Diego crushing the Jets, which is just what they did. Seriously though, the defense was stout, because when the score was 38-14 the Jets had only scored on a defensive touchdown and a short TD pass from Favre after a huge 94 yard kick return from Leon Washington. The game was a joke, and if it wasn't for the Jets racking up almost 300 yards on kick returns they wouldn't have scored nearly 29.

This week the Raiders have to be feeling down after having a solid lead most of the game only to give it up at the end. Where did their defense go in the 4th quarter? Anyways, the Chargers thriving, the Raiders reeling, we aren't going any farther then saying we like San Diego in this one as well as the other 2 games they should have one. Still my choice for the team that meets Dallas in the Super Bowl. Add in there that the Raiders last win against the Chargers was all the way back on Sept. 28th, 2003. Do the math that's 0-9 since then. I love free NFL football picks that are easy.

San Diego 35 Oakland 17

(8pts)Washington at Dallas (-11)(46)

Well, there is nothing like a division starting the year 10-2 and both losses coming within their own division. While the Cowboys look like an easy pick here running through everyone they play (except Philly), you might want to retract those thoughts. They have split the last couple years, but both teams when at home. Dallas won by 5 last year at home with pretty much the same team. However, it's the addition of Felix Jones that changed the entire landscape of this team.

Before the beginning of the year I believed that there would be three losses for the Dallas Cowboys in my NFL expert picks for 08'. However, I'm starting to wonder. I would definitely take the points here, but only because the Redskins are playing better the last couple weeks and will play the push and pull game with Portis against Barber. There defenses are pretty similar so expect the ball to be flying all over the field. I'll take the points, but the Boys for the win.

Dallas 35 Washington 28

(10pts)Philadelphia at Chicago (OFF)(N/A)

You know I can't stand it when there isn't a line for a game due to injuries. Granted, there will be eventually, but it makes the free NFL football picks a little more difficult to give out. Not really, but I wanted to whine anyways. Okay, so can Philly win without Brian Westbrook? Sure they can. Can Philly pass on Chicago? Yep. So what's the difference that will give me a clear choice for my NFL expert picks? RB Correll Buckhalter. I actually picked him up in a few leagues just in case and well, now it's his turn. While he doesn't have the pizazz of Westbrook, he did score last week with a 4.3 ypc average.

The Bears really showed me something last weekend. Their running defense ranks 4th in the league, but against the pass they are 28th. Definitely a tell tale sign of what's to come in the windy city. Either they play against the pass and Buckhalter has a big day, or they stick with going up against the run and let D.M. and D.J. have a huge duo day. Take your pick, the Eagles win on the road.

Philadelphia 21 Chicago 10

(1pt)Baltimore at Pittsburgh (OFF)(N/A)

Well, we think this will be a low scoring game regardless, but the Steelers will most likely try to figure out how RB Rashard Mendenhall will fit into the offensive scheme of things Monday night. Baltimore will be traveling to a place where they almost always play the Steelers tough. Even if they weren't very good. Baltimore's defense ranks 1st in the league, but they they've only played Cincinnati and Cleveland. If they sweep the division the first time around it will be interesting to see if the others can catch up.

If the Steelers only have 100 yards of passing their in all kinds of trouble. Heck the final score here might be about oh, 3-0. I almost forgot, how will Big Ben play after getting pounded last week? This really looks like an upset, but how can you call it one when the game has no line yet? For now I'll take the Ravens with my free NFL football picks.

Baltimore 10 Pittsburgh 7

There you have it, another week of NFL expert picks for the taking. The year has had its ups and downs, but I've still managed to have a pretty good record in straight up picks and against the spread. Then of course I've gone 10-2 in my newsletters out to the 100 plus people who have signed up. Do you want to reap some of the rewards? You'll have to head over to the Best NFL Picks Free website to find out.

Week #3: 11-5
Season Total: 30-17
ATS Week #3: 8-8
Season Total: 25-22
PTS Week #3: 84
Season Total: 264