NFL Football Week 11 Denver at Chicago

On Sunday the surging Denver Broncos travel to Chicago to take on the struggling Bears. Vegas had installed the Bears as a 3 point favorite and the bettors have liked what they've seen lately from the Broncos and have brought the line down to Chicago -2.5 at most Vegas sports books. Let's take a hard look at these two squads and determine who walks away with the "W".

Denver 's early season games had them looking somewhat Jekyll and Hyde-ish and week to week it was a guess to which team was going to show up. QB Jay Cutler was very inconsistent and the offense sorely missed star wide-out Javon Walker. The defense looked unusually porous and it certainly seemed like Denver's playoff chances were slim approaching the halfway point of the season.

But this is the NFL and things change rapidly in this league in recent years and for the Broncos, their season has changed dramatically. The defense has improved, albeit against a couple of weaker squads and Jay Cutler has gained confidence with each passing week. Last week's win for the Broncos put them back into position for a run towards a playoff position.

The Bears on the other hand, have been doing their usual fall apart the year after making a big playoff run. Last year's starting QB Rex Grossman was benched week's ago for Brian Griese and the changed seemed to work for awhile. They struggled to a late win while being played evenly by the Raiders throughout the game two weeks ago. Last week's contest in Seattle was more lopsided than the 30-23 score suggests. The Bears vaunted defense has been over-used and exploited throughout the season.

So let's look at the keys to this game. Javon Walker is slated to return to the starting lineup for Denver. How effective he will be will probably depend on the condition of the field in Chicago. Let's remember that this game will play at 4:15 pm (EST) and it appears like it will be quite cold. Don't discount the chances of snow, but it's far too early to predict if any of the white stuff will be falling or if it will impact the game.

Denver comes in off two big wins in their last 2 games. They beat-up on a weaker Kansas City team and took advantage of a decent, but slightly over-rated Tennessee team on Monday night, at home. I think a bit of a let-down is expected after the big Monday night win. Denver does have momentum on their side. The Bears lost a tough road game to the Seahawks in a game they played evenly for the 1st half and looked out-played most of the 2nd half. They played down to their opponents skill-level the week before vs Oakland. Clearly the Bears lack any momentum coming into this week's contest. Brian Griese hasn't been playing badly, but he hasn't been as sharp as he was earlier in the season. The Bears defense has been a major disappointment and they've struggled mightily in recent games.

Chicago does own a big advantage putting together long drives offensively and I believe the Bears defense will rise to the occasion at home. Cutler has struggled against very good defenses and the Bears defense can be as good as any in football. Another stat that stands out is the turnover ratio between these two squads and the Bears have a sizable advantage in this department. The Broncos seem to be playing their best football the last 2 weeks and may be a bit over-rated coming into this game. If the Bears play up to their skill level, they look to be the best team and the home field advantage will be a big benefit, especially should the weather take a turn for the worse.

Vegas set this line with the knowledge that Denver would be the public's choice and probably expected this line to drop. My first thought on this game was Chicago to be a -3.5 to -4 point home favorite and I've now watched this line drift under a field goal and perhaps come Sunday afternoon the line could be closer to a 1 point line.

I like the Bears to win this game and cover this spread. I can see them winning this game by about a touchdown, but of course weather conditions will play a factor if Mother Nature chooses to turn the field into a mud bath or a snow-covered field. Either way, they both benefit the home team, as a sloppy field should keep Javon Walker on the bench. On a dry field I like the Bears to win by 6-8 points, on a sloppy field by 3-6 points. Either way, lay the points and take the Bears at home.