NFL Game Picks Week #3-Free NFL Game Predictions

You know, we told a lot of people last week that it would be one of the toughest weeks of the year for NFL game picks. Boy in these situations you hate when you're right about that, but things didn't turn out so bad. We ended the week 9-6 and seriously, it could have easily been 11-4. The San Diego/Denver game was ridiculous and no matter what happened with the whistles, the refs are supposed to call that a fumble first. This way they can go back and review to see if it was incomplete. So the Chargers are 0-2 and have lost by a total of 3 points.

Regardless, it was definitely a fun week to be watching football. We got to see Matt Cassell play the way he was supposed to, Desean Jackson grab a big 110 yard game, and even Tony Scheffler end up with a couple touchdowns after being passed over for Nate Jackson just a week prior. Obviously you were probably think our talk should be about Romo, Owens, Rivers, Cutler, and Brandon Marshall, but whatever. Best news of the week, we picked San Francisco to beat Seattle so if you banked on that, congrats. The worst? Kansas City losing to Oakland probably. Anyways, you ready for week #3's NFL game picks?

Wow, what a week this is going to be. Are you ready? Oh, if you want to make sure you don't miss out on my weekly picks, put your email address in the comment area and it will automatically come to your personal email inbox each week. Rodney Southern's AC page had a good idea when he started that with his picks. You can also find NFL game picks on Zac Wassink's AC page each week as well. Zac beat me by a game this week. Check them both out if you want.

(11pts)Kansas City at Atlanta(Atl -5)(36.5)

Yep, we took our chances last week on the Falcons beating up on a run down Buccaneers team, but in the end the football predictions for that game backfired. Fast forward to this week's NFL game picks and you'll find us taking a similar route. Oakland proved that K.C. is in deep trouble with either Damon Huard or Tyler Thigpen behind center. The two combined for a whopping 168 yards with Thigpen taking in 151 of those with a nice big QB rating of 54. Add in the fact that they are starting two rookies at CB this week and lookout.

After getting slapped around by the Bucs, the Falcons are looking for a little redemption. The only problem is things got worse when strong safety Lawyer Milloy grabbed a nice fat DUI before the weekend was through. Granted, the league can't suspend him until all the legal matters are finished, but someone of his stature only hurt the team. So is there anything good about this game? Well, K.C. has lost their last 10, there last 2 in domes, and Larry Johnson is already complaining about the 12 carries he had last week. We're thinking the Chiefs are about to lose #11.Atlanta 23 Kansas City 13

(15pts)Oakland at Buffalo(Buf -9.5)(36.5)

Sorry, we're still not Buffalo believers. Yep, we picked the Jags to stomp all over them last week, but evidently the OL is worse off then we thought. The Bills have an extremely easy first half of the schedule, so we expect them to roll right through thanks to the defense. This week should be no different. The Raiders caught a break last week against a Chiefs team that is looking like the Bengals of the nineties. Granted it's tough to play in K.C., but back to back road games is never a good thing. Especially when you're traveling cross country, twice.

Oakland does have a decent pass defense, so we aren't expecting another 230+ game from Trent Edwards, but probably another touchdown or two. We'll see, but the run defense will be the difference in this game. Add in a 2-8 record in their last 10 of back-to-back games losing by an average of 11 points and we should be able to make this one of the easiest NFL game picks of the week.

Buffalo 30 Oakland 17

(14pts)Tampa Bay at Chicago(Chi -3)(35.5)

Can you say, BORING! If you like offense, this is not the game to watch. After back-to-back road games, the Bears finally get to open Soldier Field where they are 4-2 in their last 6 winning by an average of 9 points. Tampa on the other hand is 2-4 in their last 6 road games. The Bucs have relied heavily on Earnest Graham this year and the Bears rank #8 against the run (83.5ypg). They also rank #11 against the pass and with Griese getting the start again, we're already leaning to the Bears in this one, and heavy.

With the Bucs ranking #23 against the pass Kyle Orton could find himself having a pretty good day. However, it's the early play by RB Matt Forte that has teams up in arms and don't look for it to be any different here. The Tulane star can run, pass, and to be honest he looks like another Thomas Jones just with a lot more pep. You know where we're going with this one.

Chicago 19 Tampa Bay 6

(6pts)Houston at Tennessee(Tenn -5)(39)

Who would have thought we'd see bye weeks in the second week of the season? NFL game picks never bode well when you see a team's stadium get torn apart by a hurricane and have to scramble just like everyone else. Tennessee was lucky enough to play the laughing stock of the league once again in the Cincinnati Bengals, so we imagine they're quite rested. Plus they're already ranked #7 against the pass (141ypg), which is all Houston can seem to do.

The Texans are 4-21 in their last 25 road games and keep in mind 2 of those wins were against the Raiders. Willie Parker ran all over them in week #1, and they've lost their last 6 to the Titans and last 3 on the road by an average of almost 6 points. Things just don't look good for Houston in this matchup, so we're sticking with the trends in these types of NFL game picks.

Tennessee 31 Houston 16

(9pts)Carolina at Minnesota(-3.5)(37)

If it weren't for the San Diego Chargers, Minnesota would be the best 0-2 team in the league. They've lost both games by a total of 8 points (G.B. and Indy). So are they going to faulter again and dwell in the cellar of the NFC North with the Detroit Lions? It's possible considering the Vikes will have to rely heavily on RB Adrien Peterson thanks to injuries to both WR Sidney Rice and WR Bernard Berrian. Their status for this weekend's game is uncertain, but Minnesota needs all the help they can get.

Carolina played a fiesty defense in the Chicago Bears last week and came out with a victory, how do they play in domes? How about in their last 5 games playing in a dome they are 5-0. Their 6th game happened to be a loss. Guess who against. Yep, the Minnesota Vikings 13-16 in OT. However, that was back when the Vikes had a quarterback that could pass over 240 yards in a game. Not happening here.

Carolina 24 Minnesota 16

(13pts)Miami at New England(N.E. -12.5)(34.5)

Do we really need to rag on the Miami Dolphins after that ridiculous showing against the Arizona Cardinals last week? Uh, yep. How in the world could Bill Parcells think that Chad Pennington was worth $11 million? Seriously, John Beck could of given them the same results. It doesn't get any easier this week as as the New England Patriots have held both the Chiefs and the Jets to 10 points. This pretty much means the Dolphins will be lucky to score.

We hate to give back stats from a team that lost all but one game that was handed to them last year. So we'll refrain. This year though, their running game has been atrocious. When Ricky William is your leading rusher with 24 and 28 yards, there's a huge problem. New England thrives against the running game, but look for a repeat from the Dolphins like last week.

New England 24 Miami 3

(16pts)Cincinnati at NY Giants(NY-13.5)(42)

The Giants have to be loving life getting St. Louis and Cincinnati back-to-back weeks. Two teams with no defense and evidently no offenses either. The Bengals are spiraling quickly and again, we think it's time the NFL steps in and passes out an ultimatum. Can they overcome themselves long enough to play the game with enthusiasm? After last week's performance against the Titans we aren't sure. Especially since the Giants have the #3 ranked defense in the league. Then again look who they've played.

Seriously, the Bengals, well, we just don't know what to say. After looking at their upcoming schedule, the team could end the season with at most 3 whole wins. Hopefully someone on their team reads this and then realizes...never mind. That's all they here in Cincinnati so we're pretty sure they are well aware of the situation. The 21st ranked defense against the 4th ranked offense? Uhm, well. Let's just put it this way, until Henry comes back their offense will continue to struggle.

NY Giants 35 Cincinnati 13

(5pts)Arizona at Washington(Wash -3)(42)

Now here's an interesting matchup we weren't expecting to see. The Redskins came out of nowhere last week and stunned the Saints after looking dismal in the opening game of the season. Are we going to see another good showing? Well, they've played each other 3 times in the last 7 years and Washington has won all three. Plus Arizona is 1-5 against the NFC East since 2005. Sure, Kurt Warner played well last week, but hell, Trent Edwards had 4 touchdowns against them last year and only threw for 165 yards.

Probably the most interesting news of the week was Chris Cooley's apology to fans for posting a picture of his groin area on his blog. Although an accident, we aren't sure if the win this week will be. To be honest, we have to go with the trends here because of the competition Arizona has played so far. Washington's competition is far superior and there may be a few changes coming in the special teams area. We might get to see how well Santana Moss takes punt returns here and there after Randle El fumbled last week to set up the Saints first score.

Washington 20 Arizona 16

(3pts)Detroit at San Francisco(S.F. -4)(46.5)

Okay, so if you didn't believe Detroit is far from being a superior team in week #1, we hope you think so now. Our first week NFL game picks article we told everyone that their defense was horrible. Guess what? It is, big time. So does it get any better against a team that is starting to gel? Well, we even though we picked the 49ers in last week's free NFL game picks article we only did because Seattle is so banged up. This week?

Our biggest concern here is that Detroit is 2-7 on the road in their last nine. Well, that's not as bad as the 25ppg that they've lost by over that span. The Niners aren't really putting the ball in the endzone, but they are driving down the field. Kicker Joe Nedney has 6 field goals and 4 in the last game. Going up against a team that can't play on the road, and is ranked #31st in defense overall. Add coordinator Mike Martz wanting to burn his old team, we really like San Francisco.

San Francisco 33 Detroit 28

(10pts)St. Louis at Seattle(Sea -9.5)(43.5)

Can another team come in and get well against the Seahawks? After watching San Francisco last week we do think it's possible, but at least they had some sort of offense. The Rams are having to deal with Torry Holt being double covered every game and the OL helping us make easy NFL game picks when it comes to St. Louis. They have to win eventually right? Not necessarily, but we have to figure out Seattle first.

If a team is reaching heavy right now it has to be the Seahawks. They've signed Koren Robinson to a one year deal and traded a fifth rounder for Broncos reciever Keiry Colbert. Is it going to make a difference? We're not sure, but trying them out against a Rams team that gives up 327ypg in the air couldn't hurt. When it comes down to it, the Rams have no offensive strategy worth a dime. While we aren't sure the Hawks can cover the spread, we can't deny the Ram are 2-7 on the road with those losses are at a margin of 24 ppg. What do you think?

Seattle 35 St. Louis 17

(8pts)New Orleans at Denver(-5.5)(51)

The days of John Elway relived are starting to surface in Denver. Even though their will never be another Mr. Ed, there is a young gun by the name of Jay Cutler who is silencing the critics. At least for two weeks anyways. The only problem with the Broncos is their defense, and we wonder if they will be able to stop the Saints from getting in the endzone less then 4 times. Then again, they could just outscore them right? Well, we wouldn't be surprised if this game ends up 50-49 considering they give up a combined 522 yards per game in the air. This is what makes NFL game picks so much fun.

It will be interesting to see how the Saints fill the backfield with McCallister ready to go for real this week. Denver gives up 115 ypg, so everyone should get their yards. The biggest matchup though will be rookies Eddie Royal and Robert Meachum. Whoever ends up with the better game will most likely help their team. The Saints are a decent team in the second of back-to-back road games going 3-2 in their last 5. Denver has gone 4-0 at home since the middle of last season. They got lucky last week, can they do it two weeks in a row? We think N.O. will cover, except Colston missing really hurts them. So we change our minds.

Denver 44 New Orleans 30

(2pts)Pittsburgh at Philadelphia(Phi -3)(45.5)

By far one of the best matchups of the week, the Steelers get go to the road again and take on the Eagles. After a wild one on Monday, Philly came up short and cost us another win. Oh well, that's part of taking on all the NFL game picks each week. While most teams struggle the week after a Monday night game, the Eagles seem to flourish. They're 5-2 since 2005 and those 2 losses were to the NY Giants. There offense is stout this year, and with a true combination they may show the Steelers what it's like to play a team with an all around game.

Pittsburgh is 2-4 in the second of back-to-back road games. They haven't played the NFC East since 2004, but then they were 4-0 against the division. Can they do it again? We don't think so, and we're really going to see what they do against a real running game. This could be our first NFL game picks loss, but we don't think so.

Philadelphia 28 Pittsburgh 24

(12pts)Jacksonville at Indianapolis(Indy -5.5)(41.5)

The Jags are really struggling offensively and it's not just because the offensive line is hurting. Fred Taylor is the team's leading rusher with a whole 67 yards. Even though stories have been surfacing about Jacksonville feeling like the Giants of last year, they are way off. The only good thing going for them is they almost always play Indy tough. The bad news is they aren't getting any offensive linemen back for another couple weeks at best.

The Colts have looked ordinary in their first two wins, but as the weeks go on we believe they will continue to get back to form. Injuries, surgeries, and now the possible loss of Bob Sanders could loom large to how well the defense plays. Since we're writing this on Tuesday it's hard to say if Sanders will play. We're going to assume he's not because even if he is the core of the defense will be slowed. A weak D could help the Jags this week to at least cover the spread. We still like Indy with out NFL game picks for just winners though.

Indianapolis 28 Jacksonville 25

(1pt)Cleveland at Baltimore(Balt -2)(38.5)

Are you ready for the upset of the week? Yep, my buddy Zac isn't going to like this one, but hey it's part of throwing out the NFL games picks each week. Baltimore has had that extra week to get ready for Cleveland and didn't have to spend the week dealing with hurricane type gusts of winds in Ohio reaching as high as 84 mph. This rivalry is ridiculously close over the last 7 years. During that time Baltimore is 4-2 at home winning by an average margin of 14 points per contest. The two losses were by a combined 4 points.

The Browns lost DE Robeire Smith for the year against Pittsburgh, already missing LB Antwan Peek to a knee injury, and safety Sean Jones will be out for awhile. The biggest problem with Cleveland outside of a depleted defense, is that they're giving up 142ypg on the ground. With a healthy Willis McGahee ready to go for the Ravens, it could be a big week. Their defense is stout, Anderson is not as great as everyone thinks, and Baltimore will cover.

Baltimore 23 Cleveland 14

(4pts)Dallas at Green Bay(Dal -3)(51.5)

This early season matchup will give the winner an early lead on home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own and even though we aren't completely sold on him yet after padding his stats against Detroit last week, he's playing well. The question is whether or not we can give NFL game picks on a matchup like this without looking at the trends. Nope. Here we go.

The Cowboys are 3-4 ATS after playing a shortened week. Those three wins? Carolina, San Francisco, and Detroit. Green Bay is playing good and their offense leads us to believe that any NFL game picks that favor the Packers would be a decent choice. The only problem is Dallas is scoring at will and we aren't sure Green Bay will be able to keep up. It's a tough choice, but we did find a little loop in the whole and will place it on our website. You can get a hold of our pick at Best NFL Picks Free.

(7pts)NY Jets at San Diego

Wow, talk about two teams we didn't expect to have a combined record of 1-3 with the lone win being against the Dolphins. This matchup is just what football needs right now and a good reason why making NFL game picks can be so entertaining. There are many trends to look at on a Monday Night Football matchup, but one of them isn't what the Chargers are going to do without Ladanian Tomlinson. They've played 4 MNF games and have gone 2-2 over a seven year span.

The Jets don't fair so well on the road during MNF, which left us up in the air in the beginning. Then we made an interesting discovery that changed everything. If you want to see who we picked then take a look on our website and see for yourself. Granted it looks like one of the tough NFL game picks of the week, but we don't believe so. Actually you can tell from the 7pts we put next to the game we're pretty confident about the results. They can be found at the Best NFL Picks Free website.

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Week Two Straight Up: 9-6
Season Total: 19-12

Week Two Points: 81
Season Total: 180

Week Two ATS: 7-8
Season Total: 17-14