NFL Pick Against the Spread: Super Bowl XLIV

The Las Vegas line on Super Bowl XLIV is holding steady with the Indianapolis Colts favored over the New Orleans Saints by 5 1/2 points. Although the spread is the most talked about bet on the Super Bowl, there are plenty of other bets to place on Super Bowl XLIV.

Indianapolis can win straight up but can they cover?
While the majority of the print and TV media argue who will win Super Bowl, those with other priorities begin the important debate, who will cover the point spread? Unfortunately, the Saints aren't favored in this game. New Orleans was horrible against the spread coming down the stretch and in the NFL Conference Championship. They did pull their starters the last two weeks of the NFL regular season but playing as a favorite coming off a home win New Orleans was 3-5 against the spread.

New Orleans record against the spread has been sketchy at best.
New Orleans is the underdog in Super Bowl XLIV though and that is the dilemma faced in making a wager against them. New Orleans ended the NFL regular season 8-8 against the spread and 1-1 during the NFL playoffs. New Orleans was 4-4 against the spread away from the Superdome. They were only an underdog once this NFL season against Carolina but it was a meaningless game at the end of the season.

Indianapolis' record away from home has been stellar.
Indianapolis was 10-6 against the spread, during the regular season and 2-0 in the NFL post season, including a 7-1 record against the spread on the road. Including the NFL playoffs, they were 11-5 when listed as the betting favorite, as they were also dogs in the last two games of the NFL regular season.

Vegas opened betting line with Indy a 3-4 point favorite.
Las Vegas gave bettors an option, to bet the AFC over the NFC at -3 before the NFL Conference Championship games. That turns out to be a good bet for those that got in on it. The line opened up at -3 1/2 Indianapolis and quickly was bet up to -5 1/2.

A line of 5 or 6 is a little high on Indianapolis. With key injuries on defense, including NFL veteran safety, Bob Sanders and now defensive end Dwight Freeney probable to miss the game with a torn ligament or 3rd degree sprain, depending on who is giving information.

Key to the game will be home field advantage.
The key to Super Bowl XLIV will be home field advantage or the lack of it. New Orleans has shown that when they are away from home it is a different team. Without their advantage in the Superdome, New Orleans struggled to a .500 record against the spread.

Indianapolis on the other hand, thrived on the road, only losing one game against the spread and that was the last game of the season in Buffalo. Miami is not Buffalo and with or without their explosive defensive end Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis will hunker down and hold Drew Brees down on defense and dismantle them on offense. Still see New Orleans staying with Indianapolis until the middle of third quarter, possibly beginning of the fourth quarter. Take Indianapolis on the neutral field and give the 5 1/2 or 6 points.

For other odds on NFL Super Bowl XLIV check these props out:
5 Prop bets to take a look at.
First player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIV.
Last player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIV.

sources:
www.lvsc.com
www.espn.go.com
Las Vegas Hilton Superbook Props Sheet