NFL Picks Game Week 12-NFL Picks with ATS

I just want to take a moment and thank the Cleveland Browns for beating the Bills, because it was the most gratifying win of last week's NFL picks game. Then again, I do want to let Donovan McNabb know that there is such a thing as overtime in the NFL. Last but not least I want to give a shout out to Peyton Hillis for giving the Broncos their reputation back that anyone can run behind that line. It was a great week except for K.C. and New England on Thursday.

While it was a great week an sense of empathy goes out to all of you who put a little lute down on the Pittsburgh Steelers and got robbed at the end of the game. With only six weeks to go you 12 teams still in playoff contention since it is safe to say that Detroit, Seattle, St. Louis, and San Francisco are done. Maybe not mathematically (except Detroit), but still. Same goes for the AFC who can say Oakland, Kansas City, Houston, and Cincinnati are finished.

Seeing all this just lets you know how tough the NFL picks game is this year, so I can't complain at the results to this point. Hitting a modest 60% is decent considering the way everything has shaped up to this point. Another big week and I'll be right in the thick of things once again. So get ready for the Week 12 NFL picks game because I'm going for the gusto baby!

Pittsburgh -10.5 Cincinnati (34)

This game cracks me up simply because the Bengals haven't scored more than 23 points this year. Against their divisional opponents they are averaging a dismal 10 points a game and if you remember the NFL picks game in their first meeting Pittsburgh won 38-10. Keep on losing Cincy, you are fighting for a top 5 pick right now. They are 0-5 on the road and the only division they can compete with oddly enough is the NFC East.

The Steelers on the other hand are looking more and more like a Super Bowl contender even with all the injuries. Willie Parker came back for a bit and got his legs going again last week verse San Diego. At 7-3 they are playing for a #2 seed and first round bye in the playoffs at this point. In their last three wins they've given up a total of 26 points. Then Bengals can't even score that many points so this should be another blowout.

Pittsburgh 34 Cincinnati 13

Cleveland -3 Houston (43.5)

Uh oh. Are the Browns finally coming around? Does Quinn have the ability to take this team to the playoffs? Probably not considering they still have games against Indy, at Tennessee, at Philadelphia, and at Pittsburgh. However if they win against Houston, Cincinnati, and eek out one in Philly they can have a winning record the rest of the way out. Makes you wonder about the whole Anderson deal in the off-season.

Houston is just not the same team when Matt Schaub isn't behind center. Rosenfels is too turnover prone to help this team the way he did last year. I can definitely see the Brownies taking another one at home and giving people hope in this week's NFL picks game. Even if it is short lived.

Cleveland 35 Houston 28

Buffalo -3 Kansas City (43.5)

Ah yes, my favorite football team in the whole world. Hello Buffalo fan. Were you spouting off to the world how your team was for real when three out of your first four wins were against Seattle, Oakland, and St. Louis. Who by the way have a combined record of 6-24, nice job. To make matters worse you haven't beaten a team this year that has a winning record.

Now you've lost 4 in a row and think you can get back on track with an easy win against the Chiefs. Their last four games they have lost by a total of 18 points. 10 of those came last week against New Orleans. Trent Edwards is no Drew Brees, and needless to say I smell it. I smell that upset bleeding red and actually making Tyler Thigpen look like a stud. Even if he is just handing off the ball.

Kansas City 24 Buffalo 20

Tennessee -4.5 NY Jets (40.5)

Ever since that loss to Oakland, the NY Jets have scored 135 points in 4 games. Yes, 135 points which means they are averaging almost 34 points a game. Granted, they played St. Louis and Kansas City in two of those games, but 34 against the Pats on the road? Unfortunately they run into the all around best team in the NFL. Sorry Giants fans but you do have a loss and as long as they are undefeated they are still the #1.

To be honest I don't really even see this game being close. We all know Favre has issues with tight defenses and the Titans are a stout bunch. If he is scrambling all day you can bet your backside he's tossin' a couple picks. Then again I think I said the same thing last week and look what happened. Favre makes this team better, but not good enough to hand Tennessee their first loss, especially at home.

Tennessee 23 NY Jets 13

Miami -1.5 New England (42)

This right here is an interesting game. While many people believe in the Dolphins with Chad Pennington running the show, they have skated by with wins against Oakland and Seattle. New England is a lot better then both those teams combined and if the Dolphins end up leading by 2 again in the late in the game, the Pats will capitalize.

Cassell has thrown for 634 yards and 3 passing TDs, with another score from rushing one 13 yards out. Sure, they gave up a ton of points to the Jets last Thursday. Sure they lost Thomas for the year. Sure they got pummeled 13-38 by this same Dolphins team early in the season. However, I'm pretty sure they will be looking for redemption in a big way.

New England 31 Miami 10

Dallas -10 San Francisco (46.5)

If you love back n' forth football then you are going to love this one. I'm guessing the score is going to be something like 38-31 in favor of the Boyz. Why? Romo got a chance to work the kinks out and get used to throwing with the splint. Even though he threw 2 interceptions last week, the Niners D are not near as good as Washington's defense. Heck, if we are all so lucky, T.O. might just head to the mid-field Star again or cry after the game in happiness.

Dallas 38 San Francisco 31

Tampa Bay -7.5 Detroit (42)

Listen, the Lions remaining schedule is sick and if they do win a game this year it might be this one. If not, maybe against Minnesota two weeks from now. Yes, I know you are sitting there thinking I'm a mad man talking about the Lions upsetting the Bucs, and you are probably right. Think about this for a minute though.

In their last four games they are averagine 19 points per game. Detroit is also averaging 19. Tampa is 1-3 on the road this year and in their lone win they had to come back by 21, then when in overtime to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. In these 2 teams last 5 meetings they've played within 4 points. Graham is out, the Bucs got New Orleans next week, so looking past the Lions could be their downfall. I'm taking a stab one more time with the Culpepper boys.

Detroit 23 Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore -1 Philadelphia (39.5)

Don't worry, I'm not going to bring it up. Nope, nothing about it at all. The Eagles loss last week and yes I did say loss even though they tied, has really threw their entire year out of whack. Now they travel to another AFC North opponent in the Baltimore Ravens. I think it is pretty safe to say they won't be looking past the Ravens after last week's debacle. Then again, Baltimore did lose to the Giants by 20. This game might be close but the Eagles eek out a win.

Philadelphia 21 Baltimore 18

Chicago -8 St. Louis (43)

I would love to see the Rams play the Lions this year. I can't gauge who is worse in terms of no defense, a lackluster offense or personel. Needless to say, the Lions gave the Bears a scare and traveling to St. Louis that will definitely be on the minds of the players. The Rams have given up over 30 points in 7 games this year and 2 were over 40. Even Rex Grossman could come in here and throw for 400 and 8 TDs.

Chicago 41 St. Louis 13

Jacksonville -2.5 Minnesota (40.5)

I remember throwing out a stat awhile back about the Vikings having an atrocious road record against the AFC. Something like 0-7 in the past five years give or take a couple. I don't see any reason to stop now and pick the Jags except for the fact that are 4-6. Unfortunately this is where the Vikings start seeing their season go downhill. They end the year with Arizona, Atlanta, and the Giants.

Jacksonville 28 Minnesota 21

Atlanta -1 Carolina (43)

Oh boy here we go. An interesting matchup this week between these division rivals, but definitely not one that is going to keep the Falcons in the playoff hunt. Probably for them this is a must win without even thinking about division status. Why? Well, because after this week they have three road games out of their next four in San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota. Not to mention the other game is against Tampa.

Carolina ran all over the Lions last week, but its not really saying much considering they are the Lions. By the way, Michael Turner rushed for 220 yards against Detroit by himself. I'm giving the edge to the Falcons at home considering Carolina's offense has sputtered on the road in their last three.

Atlanta 23 Carolina 17

Denver -9.5 Oakland (42.5)

Well, it seems like ages ago when Denver blewout the Raiders in the opener 41-14. Patrick Hillis was a nice surprise last week and Denver does look like they are back on track. They need to keep this game in mind and not look forward to next week's game on the road against the Jets. You never know which team is going to come out, but if New Orleans can beat Oakland by 31, I imagine the Broncos can as well.

Denver 41 Oakland 20

Washington -3.5 Seattle (40.5)

Listen, if you want an upset special this week look at this game. The Redskins are good, but they have 6 wins that the average margin of victory is 5 points. In fact, they haven't won any game by more than 8 points this year. They've scored 16 points combined in their last two games, yet they are 3-1 on the road. Traveling across country for a game is always a question mark, which is why I believe those beloved Seahawks are going to pull this one out.

Seattle 21 Washington 13

NY Giants -3 Arizona (48)

Hey, I know everyone is on Arizona' bandwagon and excited that Kurt Warner is looking like he did with the Rams. However, when you are lucky enough to play San Francisco, Seattle, and St. Louis two times this year you should look good even with a decent team. Granted they still have games against the Rams and Seahawks, but the other four include the Giants here, at Philly, the Vikings at home, and at New England. The Cardinals are my Buffalo Bills of the NFC even though they are much better offensively.

If they beat the Giants this week, I will believe they have a shot to go deep in the playoffs. If not, they'll just be another one and done crew.

NY Giants 34 Arizona 17

San Diego -2 Indianapolis (49.5)

Baffled by the line? Don't be. In San Diego's 6 losses their loss margin is only 4 points a game. 3 of their losses could easily be wins (one that should of been), and they are 3-1 at home losing only to Carolina in the last seconds of the game. Yes, Indy is on a role, but do they need this game as bad as the Chargers? To be honest this will probably go down to the wire because whoever loses, the winner will likely be the final wild card team.

San Diego 34 Indianapolis 31

New Orleans -2.5 Green Bay (51.5)

The Saints are in all kinds of trouble being last in their division and having the same record as 3 other teams in the conference. This is a must win for both parties considering the Packers have a harder schedule then the Bears down the stretch and New Orleans remaining 5 after this one. In the end I give the edge and the extra three points to the home team which is why Vegas favored them by 2.5.

New Orleans 24 Green Bay 23

I have a feeling this week is either going to end up way better then everyone else, or undeniably horrible. Crazy upsets, tough matchups against sporadic opponents, good teams playing on the road against mediocres! It is just NFL picks game chaos and I love it! If you get time check out the Best NFL Picks Free website. I'm headed over there next to work on it a little.

Last Week: 13-2-1

Season: 98-61-1

ATS LW: 10-6

Season: 84-76-1