NFL Week 11 Predictions Against the Spread

These are early point spread predictions for Week 11 games for the 2009 NFL season. The spreads were taken from footballocks.com as of the early morning of November 16, 2009. The picks are based against the spread and straight up.

Last week's early spread victories (excluding BAL @ CLE): Jaguars, Redskins, Bengals, Vikings, Panthers, Chargers, and Patriots.

Last week's straight up victories (excluding BAL @ CLE): Redskins, Titans, Vikings, Saints, Panthers, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chargers.

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-3)
The Dolphins and Panthers are eerily similar. They both started 0-3, they both are 4-5, and they both are 2-2 in their last four games. The Panthers average 156.6 yards rushing per game. The Dolphins average 156.2 yards rushing per game.

What could be the key difference between these teams? The Dolphins have the seventh ranked rushing defense to counter the Panthers 3^rd ranked rushing offense. The Panthers counter the Dolphins 4^th ranked rushing offense with a 25^th ranked rushing defense. You also get points with the Dolphins. I'm going with the Dolphins to win straight up.

Against the Spread: Miami Dolphins (+3)
Straight Up: Miami Dolphins

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-12)
The Cowboys were stifled by the Packers 4^th ranked defense. In week 11, they face the Redskins 5^th ranked defense. Unlike the Packers defense, the Redskins forte is having the league's best pass defense. The Redskins rush defense is 24^th.

I picked the Redskins to upset the Broncos last week. I like the Redskins to be competitive with the Cowboys, but I am not willing to bet another upset for the Redskins. Cowboys win a close one in Dallas.

Against the Spread: Washington Redskins (+12)
Straight Up: Dallas Cowboys

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Game of the year candidate. One of these teams is actually going to win! The Lions are 2-31 in their past 33 games. The Browns are 2-16 with two wins against the Buffalo Bills in their past 18 games.

I'm guessing Jim Schwartz's defensive prowess will overpower the Browns offensive ineptitude. Happy Thanksgiving, Lions fans!

Against the Spread: Detroit Lions (-2.5)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

The Packers are 5-4 despite having the 8^th ranked offense and 4^th ranked defense, including being in the top six for run and pass defense. The Packers also lead the league in turnover ratio at +13. If the Packers could correct the silly mistakes and improve their offensive line, they could be a force in the NFC.

I don't expect that, however. The 49ers should keep the game close, but I'm guessing that the Packers defense will overpower the 49ers non-existent offense. Unlike Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers is not going to throw five interceptions.

Against the Spread: San Francisco 49ers (+5.5)
Straight Up: Green Bay Packers

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs won their second game of the year in week 10 against the Oakland Raiders. In week 11, they try to build off that success against the Steelers.

The 30^th ranked offense against the 2^nd ranked defense? The Steelers are likely going to want to vent their frustrations on someone. Expect a healthy sized victory for the Steelers next weekend.

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-6)
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 in road games this season. The Falcons have also lost three of their last four games.Six points does seem excessive against a team coming off a four game losing streak. Keep in mind that the New York Giants are coming off a bye week. They have had two weeks to recover from their injuries and prepare for a must win game against Atlanta. I expect the Giants to win by at least two touchdowns.

Against the Spread: New York Giants (-6)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: New Orleans Saints (-11.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The New Orleans Saints looked to have overlooked the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. When they face the Buccaneers, they may be looking ahead to the New England Patriots game the following Monday night.

The Buccaneers 29^th ranked defense pairs up against the Saints top ranked offense. Rookie Josh Freeman will have to face a Saints defense with playmaking potential. I like the Saints by at least two touchdowns.

Against the Spread: New Orleans Saints (-11.5)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
I learned something in week 10 from the Bills: if the 32^nd ranked rushing defense matches up against the 2^nd ranked offense, don't expect them to keep it close.

In week 11, the Bills rushing defense must slow down the Jaguars 6^th ranked rushing attack. The Jaguars should prove as another devastating match-up for the Bills.

Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
Straight Up: Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Despite a 9-0 start, the early spread is giving points to the Indianapolis Colts? With a depleted defense and a non-existent rushing game, people continue to doubt the Colts. The Ravens should prove to be one of the biggest challenges for the Colts in 2009.

Judging from the past two weeks, it seems like the Colts are due for a loss. I can't get myself to bet against Manning though.

Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts (+1)
Straight Up: Indianapolis Colts

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (-11)
The Seahawks have the 27^th ranked rushing defense in the NFL. How well can the Seahawks slow down Adrian Peterson, especially when they have to worry about Brett Favre?

The problem with the Vikings is they tend to give up big leads with soft defense. The Vikings should win, but I don't trust them with eleven points against the Seahawks.

Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks (+11)
Straight Up: Minnesota Vikings

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals (-9) at St. Louis Rams
The Arizona Cardinals have won five of their last six games. The Cardinals passing offense should be able to carve up a vulnerable Rams secondary.

Against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals (-9)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10)
The Jets won the first match-up 16-9. The Jets have defensive strengths in areas that the Patriots are strong offensively. One of the big differences between the Patriots and Jets is that the Jets have the league's top rushing offense while the Patriots the league's 17^th ranked rushing defense.

The New England Patriots have not been that impressive in margin of victories, especially against competitive teams. Taking ten points with a 3^rd ranked defense is normally a good idea. I do believe that the Patriots win in a squeaker.

Against the Spread: New York Jets (+10)
Straight Up: New England Patriots

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) at Oakland Raiders
As the Cincinnati Bengals are coming off aggressive games against the Ravens and Steelers, a west coast trip could prove more difficult than what one might expect. I feel the Raiders will be able to keep it close, but the Bengals will prevail.

Against the Spread: Oakland Raiders (+9.5)
Straight Up: Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (OFF)
Because of the injury to Kyle Orton and his unknown status, I have no point spread information for this game. The Broncos won the week 6 meeting 34-23. That proved to be the last victory the Broncos would have since their three game skid. The Chargers have won four consecutive games.

The doubt with Kyle Orton's availability persuades me to go with the Chargers straight up.

Straight Up: San Diego Chargers (NO SPREAD)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Chicago Bears
There are four reasons the Eagles an intriguing selection. First, this is a must win game for the Eagles. Their 23^rd ranked rushing defense should not be challenged by the Bears 30^th ranked rushing offense. The Eagles are tied second in defensive sacks. Most importantly, the Eagles are second in the NFL in turnover differential.

The Chicago Bears offensive line and Jay Cutler could be in for another long day. Maybe Rod Marinelli can teach the Bears to believe in "The Invisible."

Against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles (-2)

NFL Week 11 Predictions against the Spread: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5)
Vince Young returns to Houston in a Monday night game against the Texans. The Titans have won three straight games with Vince Young starting. The Texans are looking for their first over .500 season in team history.

The Houston Texans third ranked passing offense pairs up against the Titans 31^st ranked passing defense. The Texans won the first game 34-31 as Chris Johnson had 197 yards rushing. I normally take the team with two weeks to prepare for a game, but I believe Vince Young is going to have extra motivation playing in Houston on Monday Night. Add Chris Johnson, and I see the Titans continuing their winning streak.

Against the Spread: Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

REFERENCES:
Football Locks, accessed November 16, 2009

All stats and records are from nfl.com