NFL Week 14 Predictions Against the Spread

These are early point spread predictions for Week 14 games for the 2009 NFL season. The spreads were taken from footballocks.com as of the night of December 7, 2009. These predictions are based against the spread and straight up. Any game that is currently off will only be researched straight up.

A look into last week's predictions. I was 13-3 straight up with eight victories against the spread in my week 13 predictions. In the past three weeks, I have only lost ten games with my straight up predictions. If you want more sports information, then check out the AC Sports Mafia Facebook Group!

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Cleveland Browns
The Steelers have lost games to the Chiefs and Raiders in the previous weeks, but this is the Browns. The Steelers are also desperate.

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (-10)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
Over the years, Peyton Manning has been a nightmare for the Broncos. After a four game losing streak, the Broncos seem to be back on track.

The Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives. The Colts just win, although they have home-field advantage all but clinched. The Colts tendency of spotting points leans me toward the Broncos with seven points. Until the Colts lose, I will not pick against them straight up.

Against the Spread: Denver Broncos (+7)
Straight Up: Indianapolis Colts

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
The Bengals are getting seven points and sport one of the league's top five defenses. The Vikings strength of schedule has come into question with losses against Pittsburgh and Arizona. It should be a close game, but I like the Vikings to steal a high quality victory in the Metrodome.

Against the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals (+7)
Straight Up: Minnesota Vikings

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: New York Jets (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The New York Jets do have to travel across the country for this game. There are two huge mismatches that favor the Jets: The Jets top ranked defense against the Buccaneers 27^th ranked offense, and the Jets #1 rushing offense against the Buccaneers 31^st ranked rushing defense.

6-6 when you have the league's best rushing offense and overall defense? Fascinating. I like the Jets with these match-ups and three extra days of preparation.

Against the Spread: New York Jets (-3.5)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (Pick)
The Bills have a good pass defense. The Chiefs have been outscored 87-27 the past two games. Is there enough home-field magic in Arrowhead to get the Chiefs over the Bills? At 1-5, probably not. I'll go with the Bills seeing they had three extra days to prepare.

Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills (Pick Em)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears
In week 1, the Packers escaped with a narrow victory late in the fourth quarter. Jay Cutler debuted as a Bear by throwing four interceptions.

The Bears pass defense and lack of a rushing game should affect the Bears ability to compete against the Packers. The Packers lead the league in turnover ratio. Not a good thing for Jay Cutler. This is a major rivalry game, and the Bears should be ready for one of their better performances of the season. I still like the Packers by a touchdown.

Straight Up: Green Bay Packers (-3)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: New Orleans (-9.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are depleted by injury. Matt Ryan may miss another game. The only things the Falcons have are desperation and the possibility that the Saints will slack off. I don't believe that happens until after Dallas, however.

Against the Spread: New Orleans Saints (-9.5)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
The Ravens looked like they could care less on Monday Night. They did not look like they even want to get out of the huddle let alone run the offense. The Baltimore Ravens need to win in order to remain in the AFC Wildcard race. The Ravens will win, but can they cover this spread? If they have proven anything in 2009, it is that they perform well against lower competition. I would take the Ravens with the points.

Against the Spread: Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Both teams are fighting for a wildcard spot. The Miami Dolphins have dreams of stealing the division from the New England Patriots.

The Jaguars are one of the league's best home teams at 5-1. The Dolphins are 2-4 on the road. Both teams have rushing attacks that are in the top fourth of the NFL. The differences between the two teams' run defenses are negligible. These teams are quite similar and should prove for a tight game. Since it's at Jacksonville, I will go with Jacksonville even though I think Miami is better on neutral grounds.

Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Carolina will have to travel to New England this week. The Patriots are 6-0 at home. The Patriots ability to force turnovers could give Jake Delhomme and the Panthers havoc. Can the Carolina rushing game exploit the New England Patriots mediocre defense? The Panthers also match-up their 5^th ranked pass defense with the Patriots 2^nd ranked pass offense.

I feel that the Patriots will rely heavily on their running game and drives featuring long time of possessions against a Panthers defense missing an interior presence. I believe the Panthers can also establish long drives against the Patriots with their running game. Overall, this should lead to a lower scoring game where the Patriots will win, but closer than expected.

Against the Spread: Carolina Panthers (+13.5)
Straight Up: New England Patriots.

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (-6)
Houston's 4^th ranked passing offense challenges the Seahawks 25^th ranked passing defense. The Seahawks are also 1-5 on the road. Look for Houston to prevail, and I like their chances to cover the spread.

Against the Spread: Houston Texans (-6)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: St. Louis Rams at Tennessee Titans (-13)The Titans will win. The question is can their offense score enough points to cover the spread? Rams lost by 8 to Chicago and managed 9 points against a susceptible Bears defense. I would go Titans or I would advise not betting this game. The Rams may find themselves 1-15 by the end of the 2009 season.

Against the Spread: Tennessee Titans (-13)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Washington Redskins (-1) at Oakland Raiders
A team that has had so many close calls with stronger teams should be able to overcome a below average Oakland Raiders team, shouldn't they?

Don't count on it. The Redskins have to travel cross country and the Raiders have momentum from defeating the defending champions. With the way 2009 has gone, the Skins will stumble against the Oakland Raiders. The Eagles did when they traveled to Oakland. The point given is just a bonus.

Straight Up: Oakland Raiders (+1)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: San Diego Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Dallas starts December with... a loss! After losing 31-24 to the Giants, the Cowboys look like they may continue their December trend of losing their way out of the playoffs. The Chargers come into Dallas with a seven game winning streak and are looking to secure a bye week over the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Cowboys are 5-1 at home. The Chargers are 5-1 on the road. The Cowboys pass defense could have problems against Phillip Rivers. Overall, three points with the Chargers is too tempting to resist. Of course, I am expecting a Chargers victory also.

Straight Up: San Diego Chargers (+3)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1)
The Eagles enter the game on a three game winning streak. In week 8, the Eagles defeated the Giants 40-17. Being a rivalry game, I would not expect another lopsided game between these teams. The Eagles do play well on the road. The Giants must win to remain in the heart of the NFC Wildcard race. One week, the Eagles can look like the elite of the NFC. The next, they are losing to the Raiders.

I'm going with the Giants as they have home-field and it creates the possibility of three NFC East teams at 8-5 heading into the season's final three games.

Against the Spread: New York Giants (-1)

NFL Week 14 Predictions against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals (-3) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 4-2 at home and defeated the Cardinals 20-16 in week 1. The Cardinals are coming off an impressive victory over the Vikings on Sunday night. The 49ers are 2-6 since their 3-1 start to the season. The Cardinals are 7-2 since starting 1-2 in September.

The 27^th ranked passing defense versus the 5^th ranked passing offense. Considering the Cardinals are 5-1 on the road, I like their chances at revenge.

Against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals (-3)

REFERENCES:
Football Locks, accessed December 7, 2009

All stats and records are from nfl.com

Joshua Huffman, "Week 13 NFL Predictions and Picks against the Spread." Associated Content.