NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

The Tennessee Titans and New York Giants both lost in week 15, but they're still the best two teams in the league according to the Walters Trend Method.

WTM, based on predictive stock market techniques, analyzes each team's average Highs, Lows and Closes and produces win estimates that correlate with actual wins better than systems used by ESPN and other experts. A team's High is their highest lead in a game, their Low is their largest deficit in a game, and their Close is their final margin of victory or loss in a game. The best teams are the ones whose average Close is closer to their average High, meaning they win games without letting their opponents come back on them.

Current Week: 16

TEAM EST ACTUAL O/U

1 TEN 0.705 0.857 0.2

2 NYG 0.674 0.786 0.1

3 PIT 0.664 0.786 0.1

4 BAL 0.640 0.643 0.0

5 CAR 0.633 0.786 0.2

6 PHI 0.623 0.571 -0.1

7 TB 0.619 0.643 0.0

8 IND 0.585 0.714 0.1

9 SAD 0.582 0.429 -0.2

10 NYJ 0.573 0.643 0.1

11 MIN 0.572 0.643 0.1

12 NE 0.568 0.643 0.1

13 NO 0.558 0.500 -0.1

14 ATL 0.556 0.643 0.1

15 DAL 0.550 0.643 0.1

16 GB 0.541 0.357 -0.2

17 ARZ 0.540 0.571 0.0

18 BUF 0.523 0.429 -0.1

19 CHI 0.521 0.571 0.1

20 MIA 0.510 0.643 0.1

21 WAS 0.458 0.500 0.0

22 JAX 0.454 0.357 -0.1

23 HOU 0.447 0.500 0.1

24 DEN 0.441 0.571 0.1

25 SAF 0.426 0.357 -0.1

26 SEA 0.386 0.214 -0.2

27 CLE 0.379 0.286 -0.1

28 OAK 0.314 0.214 -0.1

29 KC 0.312 0.143 -0.2

30 DET 0.249 0.000 -0.2

31 STL 0.241 0.143 -0.1

32 CIN 0.241 0.143 -0.1

The AFC has quietly retaken the majority in the top ten as teams like Indianapolis and San Diego have played well in recent weeks. The Colts fell behind by double-digits in five of their first seven games but have since gone five straight games without falling behind by more than a touchdown. San Diego is 3-3 in their last six games but their three losses during that span were all by less than a touchdown. Amazingly, the AFC West leading Denver Broncos are ranked 24th this week after another dismal showing against Carolina. They have one of the league's worst defenses and if they make it to the postseason they will be quickly swatted away by their opponent.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a bit of an anomaly - their average High (largest lead) is only 9.14 points, but their average Close is 4.43 points, good for 8th in the league. Their ability to hang on to small leads is a big reason that they are still in the NFC South playoff race. Their divisional foes, the Falcons, rank 10th and 9th in average High and Close respectively but they lead the league in average Low (meaning they only fall behind by about 4.79 points any given week). They are 4-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown, so their opponents need to focus on scoring early if they want to knock Atlanta out.

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys rank high in average High but are unable to close out games, and for that reason they are 15th and 19th in the rankings.