The NFL regular season last 17 weeks so it is a marathon not a sprint. The object is to finish off the year with a winning record, but starting off on the right foot would have been better off starting from behind.
Now that the first week of games has been played teams are more clearly defining who they are and a bettor does not have to rely merely on training camp speculation and the wondering of how newly acquired players will do.
With that said I am looking to get back in the saddle after last week. A few missed field goals and one terrible pick by me, yes I admit the Saints was a terrible pick, had me going from a winning weekend to a losing one. Sometimes that's just how it goes. Here are my picks for this week.
I feel particularly strong about the over picks that I have made this week. All four of the teams involved in these two contests have offenses that can be capable of putting up decent point numbers, but more importantly the defenses are capable of giving up big numbers as well. I would pick my over bets this week as the strongest plays on the board overall.
Cowboys -3.5 over DOLPHINS
The Cowboys dismantled the Giants defense last week and now they look to take on the Dolphins. While the Cowboys probably won't be putting up 45 points again, the Dolphins will probably struggle to score and won't be able to keep up with the Cowboys. The Dolphins need to find their offense before they can be considered anything close to a team to bet on.
BEARS -11.5 over Chiefs
The Bears defense looked pretty great against the Chargers, but this week they will have a much less intimidating opponent. The Chiefs struggled mightily at the hands of the Texans defense and they may be shutout by the Bears. Even with a possible Larry Johnson td or two, the Bears offense should score enough on the anemic Chiefs defense to cover the spread.
LIONS/Vikings over 42
Neither the Lions nor the Vikings have great defenses and this could be a shootout. While the Vikings do have a great run defense their pass defense is not as good, and with the Lions being a throwing team they will exploit this defense. The Lions are not good on defense at any point and gave up over 20 points to the Raiders stagnant offense. This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Colts -7 over TITANS
The Colts offense was clicking on all cylinders against the Saints on Thursday night but remember, the Saints defense is far from dynamic. The Titans should be a bit more of a challenge for the defending Super Bowl champions because of the division rivalry aspect, but if the Colts defense and offense play even remotely close to as well as they did against the Saints one touchdown will not be enough.
Cowboys/DOLPHINS over 40
The Cowboys offense looked like it was clicking very well on Sunday night and the Dolphins should have their hands full defensively. The Dolphins also put up 13 points of their own on Sunday against a good Washington defense. The Cowboys defense is not as good as the Redskins and they should score a few more points. This game should sail over the mark, especially since it should be nice weather in Southern Florida.
New Orleans -3 over TAMPA BAY
New Orleans looked awful on Thursday night but Tampa Bay didn't look much better on Sunday. New Orleans will look to bounce back from a terrible performance with a great offensive output. The real Saints will show up in this game and if they do Tampa Bay cannot stop them. 3 points is not a lot for the Saints to be giving in this game and I will take the favorite here.
Minnesota +3.5 over DETROIT
Minnesota will go to Detroit in a battle of first-place teams in the NFC North. I might not get to say that again this season. Detroit has a terrible defense and they allowed Oakland over 20 points. They should do the same to Minnesota, especially with Adrian Peterson giving them headaches. Minnesota's defense also looked pretty good last weekend even though they were playing the Falcons. They should make Detroit a one-dimensional offensive team. I will take the points in this one.
Atlanta +10.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Both Atlanta and Jacksonville looked downright awful this weekend. Atlanta could only muster 3 points against Minnesota and Jacksonville struggled to score all day. Both of these teams are using new starters and another week should give them more of a comfort level with their offenses. Jacksonville also will not be able to stop the run as well as the Vikings and I see this game being closer than most might think. While Atlanta might lose by a touchdown and a field goal, they will still cover the spread.
Cincinnati -6.5 over CLEVELAND
Cincinnati looked great on both sides of the ball on Monday night and Cleveland looked awful on both sides of the ball on Sunday. Cleveland will probably start Derek Anderson at quarterback and there is a possibility of seeing Brady Quinn before this game is through. Cleveland should stand no chance against the Bengals offense, which put up 21 points against the Ravens tough defense (one Cincy TD was defensive).
Cincinnati/CLEVELAND over 42
Cincinnati should be able to crush the Cleveland defense and they could very well put up 42 points all by themselves. I believe that Cincy will at least put up 35, equaling the mark that Pittsburgh put up this weekend, and that Cleveland will at least be able to pull out a touchdown, at least equaling the line and making it a push.
ST. LOUIS -3.5 over San Francisco
San Francisco and St. Louis both did not look very good this weekend but there are two key differences. One, St. Louis lost to a much better team than the team San Francisco narrowly beat and two, St. Louis will be playing at home for the second straight week. They should be able to cover the spread in this match up.
With all the picks made it is time for me to remind you that these are merely the best plays on the board as I see them and they are not guaranteed winners, nothing is guaranteed. I hope you have fun with these NFL selections and good luck this weekend. All lines are gathered from BetUs.com and from Wagerline.com and were accurate at the time of this article being written. Keep in mind, line movement may occur.
Also, make sure you visit JSportsPicks.BlogSpot.com for my complete picks blog that is updated with new picks every weekend.
Published by Wordsleuth
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6 Comments
Post a CommentYour a moron dude. The Vikings have a top 5 Defense.
Yo Sleuth, gimme your wisdoms on my Redskins. New coach, young QB, new offense. Is 10-6 a pipe dream or could we do it. You the man when it comes to this stuff, so i'll hang on your every thought. Thanks.
Back the New England Patriots on Sunday Nite Football TV Gala....Final Score...Patriots-27...San Diego-13
As i said, Minnesota is a great defense against the run, but last year they were 18th against the pass and they didn't look much better against the pass in week 1 against Joey Harrington.
The Vikings don't have a great defense? Really? Guaranteed they finish the season in the top 5 overall. As for this week's prediction, that game won't come close to breaking the over.
Nice article sleuth! Good luck with your picks!