NHL Trade Deadline Revisited in Sabermetrics

My "sabermetric" system is designed to compare all NHL skaters broken into groups of forwards and defensemen. Four of the five categories weigh the average for the group for the season, multiplied by the games played percentage. For example, if all forwards in the season played a total of 1000 games and scored 400 points the points per game is .400. If Player A scored .800 points per games and played all 82 games, the ranking for that category would be 2.000. If Player A had scored .800 ppg, but had played only 41 of 82 possible games; the ranking is 1.000. The four categories that use this metric are; Points per Game, Even Strength Time on Ice, Shots per Minute, Shooting Percentage.

The fifth category used is PM Factor, which is a much more concise and accurate measure of traditional Plus/Minus. PM factor takes into account the even-strength goal differential for a players team, the teams even strength minutes and the even strength minutes for each individual skater. From those numbers an "expected plus/minus (xPm) is derived and PM factor measures "expected plus minus" against actual plus/minus (aPm) (e.g. xPm=20, aPm=20; PM Factor=1.000).

These five factors all go into the Overall Factor (OF) with PM factor double weighted for forwards and triple weighted for defenseman. Overall Factor can than be divided by the players' games played to get a Per Game (PG) Factor.

With that background let's take a look at the major deals leading up to the deadline this season:

(Overall Factor listed as OF for 01-02, 02-03, 03-04, 05-06 unless noted)

*This was originally written right after the deadline, I have added an end of year look at each deal

To Calgary: Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau

To Boston: Chuck Kobasew and Andrew Ference

Stuart; 1.078, .497, 1.119, 1.128. Stuartwas the key in this trade and the numbers bear him out to be the premier player in the deal. In the 02-03 season when Stuart recorded a .497 OF, he missed significant time and scored a 1.132 PG. Stuart has regularly scored above average in ratings across the board.

Primeau; .353, .607, .822, .700. Primeau only missed significant time in the 01-02 when he recorded a PG of .877. Overall pretty solid numbers, but given one might be surprised that Primeau recorded PM rating of .426, .455, .621, .621, evidence that his rep as a strong defensive player may be overstated.

Ference; .832, .357, .867, .847. In 02-03 Ference recorded a PG rating of .770; Ference has show increased offensive skill recently (1.174 PPG) but a drop in PM Factor from 03-04 to 05-06 (.901 to .684). Far from a slouch, Ference is a passable as a fourth defenseman and very good on the third pair.

Kobasew; (02-03:05-06) .254, .619, .853. Only 24, Kobasew has yet to find his niche in the league. With PG ratings of .908, .725, .908, Kobasew has shown the ability to play in the league; his strengths have been generating shots and shooting percentage. Time on ice has been his weakness and now in Boston he should get his chance.

Year 1: Calgary went down in the first round and will now try to resign Stuart, who is rumored to be California bound. Kobasew and Ference will be big parts of the latest rebuilding effort in Boston.

To Dallas: Ladislav Nagy

To Phoenix: Mathias Tjarnqvist, 2007 1^st Rounder

Nagy; 1.027, 1.229, 1.003, .819. Nagy has been one of the leagues great enigmas all year. After putting up good numbers despite injuries (PG 1.495, 1.317) the last two seasons, Nagy figured to have a huge year if he stayed healthy in 06-07. Nagy has had his health this season, but for unknown reasons the production has been off. The Stars are banking on a rebound and a big playoff run in Dallas could net Nagy big UFA dollars.

Tjarnqvist; (03-04:05-06) .151, .297. Tjarnqvist played in only 18 and 33 games respectively (PG .688, .737) in his first two seasons. In his brief NHL time Tjarnqvist has done little to stand out; at best he looks like a third-line type of player.

Year 1: Nagy did little in Dallas and the Stars were bounced in the first round. Phoenix wasn't going to resign him and now has two more chips to rebuild with.

To Nashville: Peter Forsberg

To Philadelphia: Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, 1^st & 3^rd Rounder

Forsberg; (DNP, 1.520, .785, 1.043). Everyone is well aware that when healthy Forsberg is still perhaps the premier all around player in the world. (PG; DNP, 1.662, 1.650, 1.425) Clearly world-class, the question isn't what Forsberg can bring, rather if he can bring it. If so, Nashville made a great add that could lead to a Cup, if not they have paid a hefty bounty for a player who can't play.

Upshall; (02-03:05-06) .084, .052, .599. In limited playing times (8, 7, 48 games) Upshall has showed the ability to play in the NHL. (PG .863, .614, 1.023) Viewed as mostly a checking type player Upshall posted a .713 PM factor in 05-06, very respectable for only 48 games. Only 23, he will get his chance as the Flyers rebuild.

Parent; No NHL experience.

Year 1: The Predators took a big hit on this on as Forsberg was injured for about half of his time in Nashville. The Preds couldn't get better than the fourth seed leading to a difficult first round match with the Sharks in which they were defeated. Forsberg wont be back in Nashville, the Predators after being unable to advance again may be broken up and with the team recently sold the franchise faces an uncertain future in Nashville. Meanwhile Upshall and Parent played well in Philly and figure to be key factors in the teams future.

To: New York Islanders: Marc-Andre Bergeron

To: Edmonton: Denis Grebeshkov

Bergeron; (02-03:05-06) .092, .791, 1.214. Bergeron has quickly matured into one of the better young defensemen in the game. Adapting to the league came quick (PG 1.504, 1.201, 1.327) to Bergeron as he has posted excellent numbers across the board on both offense and defense (05-06 PM 1.083, PPG 1.325). Bergeron should be a huge addition for the Islanders.

Grebeshkov: (03-04:05-06) .042, .230. The 23 year old Grebeshkov has played in only 33 NHL games over two seasons and is currently playing overseas. Nothing he has shown (PG .857, .651) indicate a future star, but if he can maintain those type of per game ratings over a full season he should be a serviceable player.

Year 1: Garth Snow made some bold moves at the deadline and the Islanders were rewarded with a playoff berth. Bergeron provided solid blueline play and could be a long-term asset for the Isles.

To Atlanta: Alexei Zhitnik

To Philadelphia: Braydon Coburn

Zhitnik; 1.021, .889, .767, .855. Zhitnik has long been an effective defenseman, more renowned for his offensive abilities (PPG 1.602, .969, 1.251, 1.098) than defensive, (PM .996, .912, .643, .862) the numbers bear this out. Zhitnik will be a helpful addition to the Thrashers playoff run.

Coburn; (05-06) .070. With only nine career games before this season (.639 PG) there is little evidence to judge Coburn on. He struggled at times this year but is viewed as a solid prospect. The deal makes sense on both ends.

Year 1: Zhitnik was very solid for the Thrashers down the stretch, but Atlanta flopped in its first postseason. Coburn may have a solid future but I still like this deal as Don Waddell needed to ensure Atlanta finally made the postseason.

To Atlanta: Keith Tkachuk

To St. Louis: Glen Metropolit, 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd Round Picks

Tkachuk; 1.302, .944, 1.324, .595. Tkachuk has come back strong after a injury riddled 05-06 (PG 1.191). Throughout his career Tkachuk has been far above league average in all categories and brings a mean streak to Atlanta. A risky move by GM Don Waddell, but a move that should guarantee a playoff berth.

Metropolit; .369, .229, DNP, DNP. Returning to the NHL after a three year absence, Metropolit is a checking line type player at best. More of a throw in with the draft picks, he should get a chance to log some decent minutes on a rebuilding St. Louis team.

Year 1: While I liked Waddell being aggressive at the deadline, this one was a tad excessive. Atlanta surrendered too much for Tkachuk, who may well end up back in St. Louis as a free agent.

To San Jose: Craig Rivet, 5^th Round Pick

To Montreal: Josh Gorges, 1^st Round Pick

Rivet; 1.170, 1.093, .909, 1.028. The long-time Hab ranks very well in analysis. His main strength has been his PM factor (1.105, 1.090, .902, .913) and his Time on Ice (1.103, 1.193, 1.109, 1.121) two key factors for a blueliner.

Gorges; (05-06) .420. After playing 49 games in his rookie year, (PG .702) Gorges has seen similar results in his second campaign. He doesn't project to be much more than a 6^th defenseman.

Year 1: The Sharks did get to the second round and Rivet was solid along the way. For the time this one looks even enough.

To Islanders: Richard Zednik

To Washington: 2^nd Round Pick

Zednik; 1.112, 1.207, 1.173, .762. Zednik saw his OF fall below 1.000 for the first time due to injury (PG 1.025) in 05-06. A solid wing Zednik gets it done on both ends of the ice (PM 1.014, 1.116, 1.126, .792; PPG 1.173, 1.301, 1.408, .693). Zednik is a good addition to the Islanders as GM Garth Snow is making a playoff push in his first year at the helm.

Year 1: As stated earlier, the Islanders got into the playoffs largely from the deadline moves. Only time will tell what the pick yields.

To Vancouver: Brent Sopel

To Los Angeles: 2^nd and 4^th Round Pick

Sopel; 1.015, .972, 1.098, .742. Sopel returns to the Canucks where he had his greatest success. Sopel is primarily an offensive defenseman (PM .965, .573, .926, .614; PPG 1.178, 1.707, 1.877, 1.060) and should add some punch to the Vancouver offense from the blueline.

Year 1: Vancouver had a nice run before falling in the second round to the eventual champion Ducks. For a 2^nd and 4^th shoring up the defense is a good idea.

To Vancouver: Bryan Smolinski

To Chicago: 2^nd Round Pick

Smolinski; 1.030, .919, 1.126, 1.153. The Canucks add another solid veteran for a draft pick in Smolinski. Smolinski rates above average across the board except in shooting percentage where he has been consistently below average. A PM of .863 last season is of some concern, but overall he brings a good offensive game to Vancouver.

Year 1: Smolinski added some nice offensive depth to Vancouver in the stretch. Chicago, in a total rebuild had little need for the veteran and wisely added another pick to the rebuild arsenal.

To Detroit: Kyle Calder

To Philadelphia: Lasse Kukkonen & 2^nd Round Pick

To Chicago: Jason Williams

Calder; 1.115, .969, .888, 1.124. Calder has been inconsistent over his career after a strong 01-02. He hovers right around league averages in all categories. Calder is weakest at generating shots on net. He should provide depth for the Wings as they try to avoid another playoff flameout and is the best player in the deal.

Kukkonen; An old rookie at 25, Kukkonen isn't considered to be much better than a 5^th or 6^th defenseman.

Williams; .348, .193, .522, 1.013. Williams earned his first real playing time in 05-06 and put up a solid effort. Williams has played well when given the chance; (PG 1.067, 1.109, 1.133, 1.224) though he won't replicate his scoring of 05-06 (PPG 1.756) he should remain solid for the next few years.

Year 1: Detroit made it to the Conference Finals but will not retain Calder. Williams should be useful to Chicago in the near future and Philly gains yet another pick. Good deal all around.

To Pittsburgh: Gary Roberts

To Florida: Noah Welch

Roberts; .938, .202, 1.148, .766. At 40 Roberts is still effective when he is healthy (PG 1.114, 1.181, 1.308, 1.084) A tough finisher, Roberts scores high in shooting percentage and points. Pittsburgh is looking to make a playoff run with their kids and a vet like Roberts should provide some toughness and leadership.

Welch; (05-06) .094. With all of five games under his belt before this year, (PG 1.539) there isn't much of a track record on Welch. Most think he is a top four defenseman.

Year 1: Roberts added some real grit and depth as Pittsburgh had a great finish to the regular season. The young squad was upended in the first round but Roberts was a great addition and may resign with the club. Florida, who has been spinning their wheels for years gets a solid player to add to the mix.

To San Jose: Bill Guerin

To St. Louis: Ville Nieminen, Jay Barriball, and 1st Round Pick

Guerin; 1.235, .947, 1.362, .840. Bouncing back after a tough 05-06, Guerin is proving he belongs in the new NHL. A great scorer (PPG 1.759, 1.301, 2.071, .924), Guerin has a PM rating (.771, .685, 1.117, .752) that indicates he is a defensive liability.

Nieminen; .826, .708, .692, .750. A below average forward; Nieminen struggles badly to score. He has shown some defensive ability at times (PM .929, .642, .881, .907) but still doesn't rate better than a stopgap.

Barriball; No NHL experience.

Year 1: The Sharks were elimanted in the second round and Guerin was a virtual no show in the playoffs. It is unlikely that Guerin will resign in San Jose, unless Barriball and the pick really turn into something San Jose will have simply taken a shot and missed.

To Boston: Aaron Ward

To Rangers: Paul Mara

Ward; .886, .737, .611, .935. The veteran Ward ranks as an average defenseman. Known more for his defense, the PM isn't great (.998, .751, .624, .868). Most of his career high .935 OF last season was due to a high shot percentage score (1.500). Ward is nothing more than a good 5 or 6 on the blue line.

Mara; .920, 1.022, 1.123, 1.185. After improving every year in the league, Mara took a step backward in his hometown of Boston this year. Still, Mara is six years younger and already better than Ward. Offensively gifted, the PM (.716, .751, 1.019, .832) have been really poor for a defenseman. Still the deal is a steal for the Rangers.

Year 1: Mara played well for the Rangers as they nearly upset Buffalo to reach the Conference Finals. Mara is still younger, better and cheaper than Ward. Deal didn't make sense for Boston when they did it and still doesn't.

To Buffalo: Dainius Zubrus, Timo Helbling

To Washington: Jiri Novotny, 1^st Round Pick

Zubrus; .995, .861, .662, 1.057. Often hampered by injuries, there is no doubt Zubrus can play. (PG 1.149, 1.121, 1.006, 1.220) Zubrus doesn't excel at any one facet, but brings a solid all around game. His 05-06 PPG (1.317) and PM (1.023) are very encouraging.

Helbling; Rookie, 2 games experience.

Novotny; (05-06) .140 (PG .820). With only 14 games before this season, Novotny is just cutting his teeth in the NHL and could develop as a third liner.

Year 1: Buffalo fell short of the finals but you can't blame them for trying as Zubrus was a solid addition. Washington needs to start adding players around Ovechkin quickly.

To Detroit: Todd Bertuzzi

To Florida: 2 conditional draft picks

Bertuzzi: 1.338, 1.435, 1.083, 1.067. Everyone knows the Bertuzzi story. Once amongst the games elite, he hasn't quite been the same since the Stephen Moore incident. Still above average, it is unknown when or how he will come back from surgery. The picks are all conditional so it is a no risk, high reward situation for Detroit.

Year 1: Though they fell short of the finals, Detroit didn't have to surrender much to get Bertuzzi and gamble that he bounce back from lingering back troubles. Bertuzzi didn't dominate but was a good addition.

To Boston: Dennis Wideman

To St. Louis: Brad Boyes

Wideman; (05-06) .793. Playing 67 games in his rookie year, (PG .971) Wideman showed good offensive ability, especially getting the puck on net (Min/Shot 1.228). On the flip side, his .560 PM rating was terrible.

Boyes; 03-04:05-06) .006, 1.267. Playing only one game in 03-04, Boyes was a surprise breakthrough player in 05-06, posting the best OF on the Bruins. Boyes impressed with a PPG of 1.595 and PM 1.296. His play has dropped off badly this year; if 05-06 proves to be a fluke it's a good deal for Boston, if he regains his form, it will be another trade Bruins fans long rue.

Year 1: Neither team was in playoff contention when this trade happened and the result of this deal will be played out over the next few years. For now the advantage goes to the Blues.

To Los Angeles: Jaroslav Modry, Johan Fransson, 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd Round Picks

To Dallas: Mattias Norstrom, Konstantin Pushkarev, 3^rd and 4^th Round Picks

Modry; 1.072, 1.183, 1.020, .992. Modry is an excellent offensive player (PPG 1.979, 1.753, 1.430, 1.439) and slightly below average on the defensive end (PM .908, .785, 1.167, .785). Joining Blake and Visnovsky he gives LA a lot of depth at defense.

Fransson; No NHL experience

Norstrom; .830, .735, .873, .886. Norstrom doesn't bring anything close to the offense that Modry brings, but is slightly better on the defensive end (PM .939, 1.061, .843, .883). Even so, he is a downgrade from Modry for Dallas.

Pushkarev; Rookie, 17 games experience.

Year 1: I like Modry a lot more than Norstrom overall. Maybe Dallas felt going with the more veteran Norstrom would be better in the playoffs. They could have lost in the first round with Modry too though.

To Islanders: Ryan Smyth

To Edmonton: Robert Nilsson, Ryan O'Marra, 1^st Round Pick

Smyth; .899, 1.074, 1.207, 1.153. A huge addition for the Islanders will get hopes higher than they have been in Long Island for awhile. Smyth is a premier scorer with PPG ratings of 1.333, 1.587, 1.602 and 1.525 over the last four seasons. He came at a big price, but it will be well worth it to generate some playoff excitement.

Nilsson and O'Marra; No NHL experience

Year 1: Smyth was a key to the Isles making the playoffs and rumors are that they will make a serious bid to resign him and make him the captain. O'Marra has been viewed as a very good prospect, this one will probably work out for both clubs in the long run.

To Toronto: Yanic Perreault, 5^th Round Pick

To Phoenix: Brendan Bell, 2^nd Round Pick

Perreault; 1.200, .986, .820, .944. Always a solid scorer, Perreault has enjoyed a renaissance since the Coyotes picked him up about a month into the season. One of the leagues best face-off men; he should be a great help to the Leafs playoff push.

Bell; Rookie, 1 game experience before 06-07.

Year 1: Perreault was a nice add, but the Leafs lost a playoff spot on the last day of the season. Still it was a good attempt and for now it doesn't seem that they paid too much.