NL Central Predictions

Starting rotation (followed by percentage of League ERA)

Carlos Zambrano - 75%
Ted Lilly - 101%
Jason Marquis - 106%
Rich Hill - 112% (90% last year)
Wade Miller - 90%

The Cubs starters have averaged 97% of the League ERA in their careers. If we use Rich Hill's number from last season, it's just 92% for the staff. While this staff might not look that great, this division lacks anything better.

Offense

The Cubs were bad offensively last season, ranking 15th in runs, 716, and 14th in OPS at .741. Expect serious improvement this season. Sweet Lou was a hitter and he knows how to get his players to hit. The addition of Alfonso Soriano, a healthy Derrek Lee, and the blossoming of young players like Matt Murton, should boost the offense into high gear. Piniella will get offense out of this bunch, at least enough to win the division.

2)St Louis Cardinals

Starting pitchers

Chris Carpenter - 90%
Kip Wells - 101%
Anthony Reyes - 108%
Adam Wainwright - 77%
Braden Looper - 84%

The Cardinals staff has averaged 92% of the League ERA in their careers. Wainwright's ERA in the minors was 3.76, and Reyes was 3.31. Some real question marks here, with Wainwright and Looper going from relief to starting. But Reyes should be better this year. I think the Cards were smart to avoid giving big money to Weaver and Suppan after the World Series. Be very interesting to see how Wainwright and Looper do this year.

Offense

The Cards were 6th in both runs, 781, and OPS, .769, in the NL last season. Anchored by Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen, this team will score runs.

The Cards have a few too many question marks in their starting rotation to pick them first. But they should be in the hunt, barring injuries.

3)Milwaukee Brewers

Starting pitchers

Ben Sheets - 91%
Chris Capuano - 97%
Jeff Suppan - 99%
Dave Bush - 94%
Claudio Vargas - 108%

The Brewers starters have averaged 98% of the League ERA in their careers. Unless Vargas surprises this year, the Brewers will need one more starter to take this division.

Offense

The Brewers were 14th in runs, 730, and 12th in OPS, .747, in the NL last year. Is this the year the young Brewers hitters start to blossom? To compete, they need more out of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart and J. J. Hardy.

The Brewers staff is OK, and they have young hitters who can emerge. But they will need a lot of things to go their way to win the division.

4)Houston Astros

Starting Pitchers

Roy Oswalt - 70%
Jason Jennings - 97%
Woody Williams - 95%
Wandy Rodriguez - 128%

Not sure who the 5th starter will be for the Astros. These four have averaged 98% of the League ERA in their careers. Oswalt is rock solid, and I expect Jennings to have a decent year, but after that who knows with this staff? Can only be saved by the return of the Rocket.

Offense

The Astros were 12th in runs, 735, and 14th in OPS, .741, in the NL last season. The signing of Carlos Lee will help this offense, but not enough to compete for the division.

The Astros are just not good enough to win the division this year. The have real talent on this team in Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. But it's not enough to carry the rest.

5) Cincinnati Reds

Starting rotation

Aaron Harang - 96%
Bronson Arroyo - 91%
Eric Milton - 107%
Kyle Lohse - 107%
Kirk Saarloos - 108%
Matt Belisle - 93%

Not sure who the 5th starter will be. These six have averaged 100% of the League ERA in their careers. While Harang and Arroyo were great last season, the rest of the Reds rotation is so bad they cannot compete for the division.

Offense

The Reds were just 9th in runs, 749, and 7th in OPS, .768, last season, while playing in a bandbox. Not good enough. I still don't understand the Kearns and Lopez trade.

The Reds just don't have enough pitching or hitting to win this division in 2007.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting rotation

Zach Duke - 84%
Ian Snell - 112% (2.85 ERA in minors)
Tony Armas - 102%
Paul Maholm - 96%
Tom S. Gorzelanny - 101% (2.91 ERA in minors)

The Pirates starters have averaged 99% of the League ERA in their careers. This is a young staff that could surprise people this year.

Offense

The Pirates were dreadful offensively last season. They finished last in the NL in runs, 691, and OPS, .723. Jason Bay is a great hitter, and the Pirates added two OK offensive players to their team in Adam LaRoche and Xavier Nady, but they need more to compete.

AL Central Predictions

1) Chicago Cubs
2) St Louis Cardinals
3) Milwaukee Brewers
4) Houston Astros
5) Cincinnati Reds
6) Pittsburgh Pirates