NL East Predictions

Starting rotation (followed by percentage of the League ERA)

Freddy Garcia - 89%
Brett Myers - 100%
Cole Hamels - 88%
Jamie Moyer - 94%
Adam Eaton - 108%

The Phillies starters have averaged 96% of the League ERA in their careers. Anchored by newcomer Garcia, this is a solid staff, and if Cole Hamels develops this year, it could be a really good staff. Hamels will be the key to this team.

Offense

The Phillies scored the most runs, 865, and had the highest OPS, .794, of any team in the NL last year. Anchored by MVP Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, the lineup is solid.

The Phillies have the pitching and the offense to take this division in 2007.

2) New York Mets

Starting pitchers

Tom Glavine - 83%
Orlando Hernandez - 94%
John Maine - 107% (84% last year)
Mike Pelfrey - 2.43 ERA in minors
Oliver Perez - 113%
Pedro Martinez - 63%

The Mets starters have averaged 99% of the League ERA in their careers, without including Pedro, who is out until July. If we include Pedro the number drops to 92%. If we leave out Pedro, but use Maine's number from last season, we get 94%. And that brings us to the problem with the Mets pitching of 2007. There are too many question marks. If the Mets can answer those question marks, they can win the division again.

Offense

The Mets were 3rd in runs, 834, and 4th in OPS, .780, in the NL last season. A lot of the Mets hitters had great seasons last year. They will need the same to win this division again.

The Mets had a great year last season, when everything but Pedro went their way. Unless that happens again, it's second place, and Wild Card contention, for them this year.

3) Atlanta Braves

Starting rotation

John Smoltz - 79%
Tim Hudson - 78%
Mike Hampton - 92%
Chuck James - 84%
Kyle Davies - 145%

The Braves starters have averaged 96% of the League ERA in their careers. That number drops to 83% if we leave Davies off the list. Very impressive. Chuck James was 84% last year, and probably not a fluke, as his ERA in the minors was just 2.09. Davies ERA in the minors was 2.91, so it's reasonable to expect more from him this year too.

Offense

The Braves scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last season, 849, and had the 2nd best OPS at .791. With two youngsters in the lineup this year, Kelly Johnson at 2B and Scott Thorman at 1B, they will be hard pressed to do as well this season.

The Braves have the pitching to win this division, and they have solidified their weak bullpen by adding Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Bob Wickman. But I think they are asking too much by plugging two holes in their lineup with unproven youngsters. I wouldn't be surprised if they won the division, and I expect them to win a lot of games, but can't pick them for the top spot. This division should be a dog fight.

4) Florida Marlins

Starting rotation

Dontrelle Willis - 80%
Scott Olsen - 94%
Anibal Sanchez - 66%
Ricky Nolasco - 112%
Sergio Mitre - 138%

The Marlins starters have averaged 98% of the League ERA in their careers. The loss of Josh Johnson until June will hurt them, as they are plugging Mitre into the gap.

Offense

The Marlins scored the 8th amount of runs, 758, and had the 8th best OPS last season in the NL at .766. Miguel Cabrera is a great offensive player, but they will need to better those numbers to compete for the division, and I don't think they will.

The Marlins have some great young talent, both pitching and hitting, but unless that talent moves forward again this year, they will likely take a step back this year. They will miss Joe Girardi.

5) Washington Nationals

Starting pitchers

John Patterson - 98%
Jerome Williams - 93%
Shawn Hill - 159% (3.12 ERA in minors)
Jay Bergman - 134% (3.42 ERA in minors)
Matt Chico - 3.74 ERA in minors

The Nationals starting pitchers have averaged 121% of the League ERA in their careers, if we include Hill and Bergman. Without them it's 96%, but for just two pitchers. The Nationals pitching situation is a mess.

Offense

The Nationals scored the 10th amount of runs, 746, and had the 9th OPS, .756, in the NL last season. Without Alfonso Soriano and Nick Johnson this season, they will probably sink to last in the NL in runs scored.

Not much pitching and not much hitting is how you can describe the Nationals this season.

NL East Predictions

1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) New York Mets
3) Atlanta Braves
4) Florida Marlins
5) Washington Nationals