N.L. Rookie of Year Candidates: 10 Rookies to Watch in 2010

Twenty years from now, as Stephen Strasburg or Jason Heyward or some other grizzled veteran is about to put the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame baseball career, people will talk about the first time they saw him play. But exactly who will that person be? Will it be Strasburg? One never knows when it comes to the rookies, those guys who simply haven't faced the challenges of a 162-game season against the sport's top pitchers and hitters.

As the 2010 season heats up, though, almost everyone is speculating about a few guys who are the surest bets to earn the respect of teammates, opponents and fans as well as the highly coveted National league Rookie of the Year award. Ten rookies appears ready to vie for the award, which goes to the league's top rookie. And the candidates are...

Stephen Strasburg, P, Washington: Ben Johnson. Brien Taylor. Jerome Walton. Unless you're a true baseball nerd, you probably don't know those names. While all three played Major League ball at some point, none of the three ever met the hype that was flying around when they showed up at spring camp as the next great one. For only that reason, one has to be a little hesitant about predicting greatness from Strasburg. He's already a household name in the greater D.C. area. Depending on who you ask, Strasburg can throw his fastball somewhere between 98 and 155 mph. The 2009 first-round draft pick pitched well enough this spring to garner lots of praise and some consideration to be on the team's starting staff when it heads north next week. Strasburg, though, is like your grandmother's fine china. You'll never find a better plate to use at dinner, but you might chip it, too. So he'll stay in the china cabinet until it's his time to shine. It's tough to know when that might be. After all, he's starting his pro career with Class AA Harrisburg. He might get a call as early as May 1, but a lot depends on Washington's ability to compete without him. Why throw a 20-year-old rookie into the fray if Washington is 15 games out of first place by the end of the season's first month? The hesitancy hurts Strasburg's chances of being the Rookie of the Year winner, and he just might be the guy who wins it in 2011. Stay stuned.

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta: Heyward gained fame this spring when the Braves had to put up a net to keep his tape-measure batting practice smashes from slamming into cars parked beyond the fence in right field. Heyward, though, already was on many radar screens. Expected to start the season in right field for the Braves, Heyward was drafted by Atlanta in the first round of the 2007 draft and instantly produced. Still 17, he hit .302 in 12 games in Atlanta's Class A rookie league in 2007 and batted .316 with 11 homers and 52 RBIs the next season in Class A ball. In 2009, Heyward played in 99 games and hit .323 with 17 homers and 63 RBIs. That earned him the designation of 2009 Minor League Player of the Year.

The numbers everyone is talking about this spring have nothing to do with Heyward's batting average or slugging percentage. Instead, the scuttlebutt has been mostly about his size and age. At just 20 years of age, Heyward is 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds. Without a doubt, he's a clubber, but there are few guarantees with a guy so young. Heyward should struggle a bit this season as he adjusts to the grueling 162-game schedule and big-league pitching. Time will tell whether he's the next Dave Kingman or the next Albert Pujols. He's mostly being compared to Pujols, who might be the best offensive player in the history of the game. Of course, even Pujols wasn't thought of in Herculean terms when he first came to the bigs with the St. Louis Cardinals. The X-factor for Heyward might be the influence of some of the team's veterans. Chipper Jones, for one, knows what it's like to be the guy in the spotlight. If Jones can help Heyward harness his incredible potential, watch out. The two could be the best 1-2 punch in the game by mid-season.

Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee: While Heyward and Strasburg are still learning how to shave with the best electric razor money can buy, Alcides is a well-developed prospect who appears ready for a breakout season. Escobar has 47 career at-bats over the past two seasons, and he made the most of his 125 at-bats last season with 38 hits in as many games. Escobar is a true five-tool talent. His defensive abilities bring raucous cheers, and he's likely to win a Gold Glove at shortstop sooner rather than later. The 23-year-old Escobar also has the speed to steal more than 50 bases. If he lacks anything, it's the ability to produce lots of runs. Sure, he'll score about 100 times in 2010, but it's unclear whether the lead-off hitter for the Brew Crew has enough pop in his bat to swat more than 40 extra-base hits. So he's probably a classic table-setter, and that means his entire season hinges on his ability to reach base. In his first 16 games this spring, his on-base percentage was .385. That bodes well for a team that also features the power potential of Prince Fielder.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston: Call him a sleeper. Johnson played college ball at Stetson University, but his virtual anonymity didn't keep scouts from finding this star in the making. Johnson hit .281 at Class AAA Round Rock in 2009. He belted 13 homers and knocked in 42 runs in just 384 at-bats before receiving a late-season call up to the big club. With five homers this spring, Johnson's a guy who is going to hit. In fact, 38 of his 108 hits last summer at Round Rock went for extra bases. The question is whether he'll have an opportunity. The Astros signed Pedro Feliz to play third base. That leaves Johnson, 25, as the back-up. Johnson played first base in college. Thus, he might have better luck if the team moved him across the diamond. First base, though, is inhabited by star Lance Berkman. That limits Johnson's chances. Of course, Berkman was placed on the disabled list and will miss the season's first four games. That allowed the Astros to keep Johnson in Houston for the start of the season.

David Freese, 3B, St. Louis: The Cardinals traded power hitter Brett Wallace to the American Legion. That tells you how much they believe in Freese, who was drafted by San Diego in the ninth round of the 2006 amateur draft. Shortly after the team made the deal, however, the problems began for Freese. He was arrested on drunken driving charges last fall, and he has endured tons of questions about his future. Freese says he's finished drinking, and it appears he's ready to start hitting. This spring, Freese has posted a .309 average and a .371 on-base percentage. He has shown more patience at the plate, too. That bodes well for the 26-year-old, who brings a six-game hit streak into the new season. The Cardinals, though, might want power from Freese, and it's unclear whether he'll produce many homers. Although he is 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, the right-handed hitting Freese had just one dinger in 31 at-bats last season and 12 more homers in 227 minor-league at-bats in 2009. Right now, he's more of a doubles hitter.

Buster Posey, C, San Francisco: Posey starred at Florida state before being drafted in 2008 by the Giants. He rose quickly through the minors in 2009 and earned his Major League debut on Sept. 11. Some compare Posey to Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer. Certainly, his value comes in his stick. Posey has posted a .378 batting average and a .404 on-base percentage in 45 spring at-bats. That might be slightly more than one might expect from Posey, but it wouldn't be far off. After all, he has posted a .327 batting average and a .431 on-base percentage in 459 minor-league at-bats. With his consistency, Posey makes for a good pick for the Rookie of the Year in the National League. All that stands in his way is playing time. Bengie Molina is expected to be the opening-day catcher, and it's still unclear whether Posey will be the back-up or will start the 2010 season in the minors.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco: The spring was tough on Bumgarner, a 20-year-old fireballer who was looking to join young gun Tim Lincecum in the rotation. Control and velocity issues forced San Francisco to send Bumgarner to the minors for additional seasoning. Certainly, the 6-foot-4, 215-pounder has the arm to be a dominant right-handed starter. After all, Bumgarner went 12-2 with a 1.85 ERA and 92 strikeouts In the minors in 2009. Most of that work, though, was in AA, where he strikeouts per nine innings trailed off considerably from his incredible 2008 numbers. In 2008, Bumgarner racked up 164 strikeouts in 141 innings at Augusta. At Class AA Connecticut, though, Bumganer had only 69 punch outs in 107 innings. If something has affected his velocity, though, it certainly isn't giving hitters much of an advantage. Thus, he might earn a call-up early in the 2010 season, and that could pave his way to the Rookie of the Year award.

Jason Castro, C, Houston: No. The kid with dreadlocks who starred on American Idol is not going to be catching Wandy Rodriguez's curveball this summer. This Jason Castro, though, did take California by storm when he starred at Stanford. That was enough to convince the Astros to take Castro in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft. This spring, the 22-year-old has shown Houston that he deserved the attention. In fact, Castro remained in competition with J.R. Towles for the starting catcher job with just a week to go before opening day.

Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida: In February, Marlins assistant Jack McKeon noted that Morrison would receive a shot to be the team's opening-day first baseman. That was before Gaby Sanchez began a torrid spring that won him the job. Morrison is likely headed to the minor leagues before the regular season starts, but the 22-year-old is good enough that he'll be back with the big club at some point in 2010. After all, the 6-foot-3, 245-pound Morrison had a .411 on-base percentage last summer in 343 trips to the plate for Class AA Jacksonville. Although he hasn't reached his full potential as a power hitter, Morrison has bashed 86 doubles in four seasons since being drafted in the 22^nd round of the 2005 amateur draft. Whether Morrison has a shot at the Rookie of the Year award depends a lot on what Sanchez does once the regular season starts. Sanchez hit .410 through 13 spring games. Morrison, meanwhile, batted .200 in 40 spring at-bats. Unless Sanchez takes a dive, Morrison should have at least a few more months to develop his power this spring.

Ian Desmond, SS, Washington: While most of the talk in D.C. has focused on Strasburg, Desmond quietly played himself into the starting lineup this spring. ESPN.com reported on March 28 that Nationals manager Jim Riggleman opted to hand Desmond the starting job over veteran Christian Guzman. Desmond, a third-round pick in 2004, has just 82 Major League at-bats. He hit .280 with four homers in a September call-up in 2009. This fall, Desmond, 24, has shown the ability to hit for power, a rarity even for today's shortstops. A slump could force Riggleman to replace Desmond with Guzman. Therefore, Desmond needs to start the season strong to ensure the playing time he'll need to compete for the Rookie of the Year brand.

Sources

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/20/AR2010032001392.html
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=sh-strasburg032409
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=heywar001jas
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=morris001log
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=5035263
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6918244.html
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bumgar001mad
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=457763
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=457763
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=freese001dav
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=501896
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=444876
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=444876