No Magic Formula: NCAA Picks and Predictions

There isn't a magic formula to selecting teams to make it to the Final Four. But there are ways in which you can make it easier on yourself to come to a feasible conclusion. For me it all comes down to the five things I mentioned in how to pick your tournament bracket: proximity, players, coaching, matchups and most importantly, your gut instinct. Sometimes luck gets the job done. For example, if you said two years ago that you picked George Mason to make it to the Final Four, you're a liar. But if you chose Florida to return to the Final Four last year that would have been a safe choice.

This year is all about a few spoilers who could make this pot of stew somewhat interesting. The region that could see the most shockers is the West, where No. 10 seed Arizona could cause all kinds of havoc for anybody. No. 3 seed Xavier also has the potential, a word you'll hear often during the tournament, to raise issues for other teams.

The sure bets seem to be non-existent, with the closest safe choice being UCLA out West. But even they are susceptible. Here are my Final Four picks with the reasoning behind them.

EAST REGION

Tennessee.

Why not North Carolina? Because they almost lost to Virginia Tech, a 19-13 team that is not particularly athletic but well-coached. There are tons of good coaches in this tournament, else they wouldn't be here. The Tarheels rebounded in the ACC tournament final but they didn't do enough to convince me of a collapse in the Big Dance. In fact, I think the Tarheels could be in for it by the second round, with Indiana or Arkansas being the Tarheels' opponent. If it's the Hoosiers the Heels match up better with Indiana. However, the Hoosiers have something to play for, having lost their head coach and so they'll be on a mission. The Razorbacks have more big men but I think UNC will probably squeak past either of these teams based on their guard play. After that Tony Bennett's Washington State will be lurking. It may be a down year for the Big Ten and a big year for the Pac-10 but that means little once the ball is tipped at the Big Dance.

By comparison, the Vols are looking at Butler, a solid 29-3 team that could be this year's Gonzaga or George Mason, in the second round. But should Tennessee get past Butler, that road gets lots easier, with only Louisville standing in their way. But it might be Boise State, too. That means Tennessee could cruise all the way to the Elite Eight. At that point they would face North Carolina and I just think Tennessee is more hungry and a bit chapped they didn't get a No. 1 seed. This is coach Bruce Pearl's big chance to show everyone he has the team to make it happen. And I believe he will. Tennessee is also the only team to have beaten Memphis. That and the Vols' No. 1 RPI should count for something.

SOUTH REGION

Memphis.

All year John Calipari's team had designs on being undefeated. They came up just one game short, losing to Tennessee. They may not even get a solid, competitive game until the Sweet 16, when it will likely be a good No. 4 Pittsburgh team awaiting them. But don't tell the coach about it. He's been on a mission to spin just how good and deep his team is. That's the scary part; it does remind me of Rick Pitino with those Kentucky teams, always saying the right thing to the media and then destroying everyone in sight. So on the mighty Tigers will go to Houston, where they'll be looking at a matchup in the Elite Eight with Texas. In Houston. Yeah, I know. It's basically a Texas home game. If ever there is a game that the Tigers have penciled in, potentially, on their calendar it's that one.

But you can't guarantee that the Longhorns will be there, since Stanford, Kentucky and Miami (FL) may await. Could it be a Memphis-Kentucky matchup for the right to go to San Antonio? It well might. That said, it just feels like this is finally the year that John Calipari will silence his critics, put everything together and deliver a Final Four appearance. Other than Texas, the region is fairly weak and lots of matchups make you throw your hands in the air. Stanford is your typical Pac-10 team with some big men to go with steady but not spectacular guard play. The Lopez brothers carry the day for the Cardinal but they're short in other areas. So a Memphis-Texas matchup seems most likely.

MIDWEST REGION

Georgetown.

John Thompson Jr. did magic at Princeton and now he's doing the same at Georgetown, where the Hoyas play a little more up-tempo than the Ivy Leaguers but still embody the same ideas. There isn't a more balanced team in the country in terms of scoring and Roy Hibbert follows in the long line of Hoya destroyers in the paint. Here's the catch though: No. 7 seed Gonzaga may be the Hoyas' second round opponent. Georgetown will have a tougher time getting through that game than they ever would USC, Kansas State or Wisconsin. (Sorry, Fullerton fans. I know you want your team to do well. And I hope you beat an overrated Wisconsin team.) While I think USC could present some problems for Georgetown they simply couldn't handle Hibbert inside. O.J. Mayo would have to go for something like 40 points and 15 rebounds for the Trojans to have any chance whatsoever.

Now we'll talk about the team the Hoyas will be facing in the Elite Eight and that's Kansas. The Jayhawks will have a fight on their hands to get past a good UNLV team in the second round. Then No. 5 seed Clemson is gonna battle the Jayhawks to the bitter end, which the Tigers have been accustomed to doing this season, especially in the ACC tournament. Will Kansas be ready for the battle that awaits them in the Motor City? My gut feeling points to no.

WEST REGION

Arizona.

You know, it's the 10-year anniversary of Arizona's improbable run to the school's only national championship, when Miles Simon hoisted the ball above his head in disbelief when the horn sounded. In that tournament the 'Cats defeated three No. 1 seeds on their way to the title. And before I even bring up the subject, you're gonna ask why. But BJ, UCLA is in their conference? Are you crazy? Uh, yeah, crazy enough to know that Arizona is just the kind of team to have to play the two toughest games anyone will have to play in the opening rounds of the tournament. They open with No. 7 seed West Virginia, a known giant-killer with the likes of Joe Alexander and are looking down the road at Duke. But let me tell you something: Belmont, Duke's opponent, is no joke and the Blue Devils haven't exactly cut down the NCAA nets in the past two years. If Duke gets shocked, then the Mountaineers may be the only obstacle standing between Arizona and a Final Four appearance.

Now to UCLA. Their two big men come into the tournament hurt. That's Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, for those of you interested. Their coach is playing down the injury concerns but that puts a serious look on my face when I ask myself how healthy Love will be after a week of being pounded on. Every coach from here to the Equator will be hounding him and Mbah a Moute until the buzzer sounds. And it isn't an injury you can walk away from either. In the case of Love it's back problems and Mbah a Moute has an ankle sprain. Both affect your mobility, which is important in the Bruins' inside-outside game. And if they get past their first few opponents and happen to play Arizona in Phoenix, they'll have several things going against them. One, it would be an Arizona home game. Two, Arizona has a few big men who can handle Love and Mbah a Moute, like a guy by the name of Chase Budiger. And finally, this 'Cats team is healthy. Sounds to me like it's time for an upset.

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Tennessee over Memphis
Arizona over Georgetown

NATIONAL CHAMPION - Tennessee

OTHER SLEEPER FINAL FOUR PICKS

East - Butler

South - Texas

Midwest - Gonzaga

West - West Virginia