No Surprises from Kentucky Presidential Polls

This year's Presidential election could be just as surprise-filled as the primaries that gave us the two nominees who will be fighting for the post of Commander-In-Chief. Barack Obama is a dynamic candidate whose charisma and agenda of change appeals to voters on both sides of the aisle. John McCain, has a long history of bi-partisan tendencies and, despite his seeming conversion to Bush administration ideals, may still garner some Democratic votes. This makes it conceivable that the November election will buck many of the voting trends we've all become used to -- just not in Kentucky, where current polls show historically typical results.

In the past 30 years, Kentucky has seen three close Presidential races: 1980, when Ronald Reagan won the state by 2 points; 1992, when Bill Clinton took the state 45% to 41%; and 1996, when Clinton won by an even narrower victory of around 1%. Otherwise the results of the Presidential race in Kentucky have been rather reliable, with the Republican candidate garnering 55-60% of the vote versus around 40% for the Democratic nominee. According the most recent poll from SurveyUSA, this years' results will follow the trend.

Before the Democratic nomination was settled, Barack Obama was not faring so well. Early polls pitting Obama against John McCain showed Obama taking only 30% of the Kentucky vote. Similar polls presuming a Clinton nomination showed Hillary taking anywhere from 41-51% of the vote in the Bluegrass state. Now that Clinton is out of the running, the Democrats of Kentucky have presumably gotten over any qualms they previously had about voting for Obama.

When poll data is broken down according to demographics, most results continue to show typical results. When the numbers in a category to differ from the typical 40% Democrat/55-60% GOP split, the difference is rarely over 5% or so, with a few notable exceptions. Barack Obama is much more popular with young Kentucky voters, with a SurveyUSA poll indicating that 54% of voters 18-34 prefer Obama. McCain's numbers drop to 49% for voters who make less than $50,000 per year, but only half of those voters have moved into the Obama camp.

When it comes to issues, the breakdowns vary from the general percentage, but in predictable ways. Pro-choice voters favor Obama, for example, while McCain suffers with voters who see Health Care and Environmental issues as most important. The two issues where the gap is widest however, involve voters concerned with terrorism and immigration. In both of these areas, polls show McCain taking nearly 80% of the vote. Clearly, the GOP tactic of scaring the vote out of people is still viable.

Sources
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
"Kentucky Presidential Matchup Polls," USAElectionPolls.com
"Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14004," SurveyUSA.com