North Carolina Primary: Polls
Clinton's big win in Pennsylvania has bolstered her prospects in this election. Since this victory, she has moved up in popularity in Indiana. According to recent Indiana polls, what looked like a tiebreaker now seems to have titled in her favor, although by a small margin.
This momentum is working well for Clinton and she is campaigning in North Carolina with renewed vigor. As such, Obama is expected to win in the state but it is important for Clinton to limit her losses. She has more funds now to support her latest ads about her experience and plans for handling the ailing economy and soaring gas prices. And North Carolina's Governer Mike Easley endorsed her on Tuesday, just a week before the primary.
Obama has had some rough weeks with the wide loss in Pennsylvania and controversies surrounding her association with Rev. Wright. He is also being criticized for not connecting with blue-collars workers across the states. But he also gained a couple of super-delegates this week. In this volatile scenario, voters have ample reasons to change their minds about the candidates. And the most recent polling data is an indicator of how the electorate is swinging.
According to polls taken in early April 2008, Obama was ahead by a margin of 17-18% but now the lead has shrunk significantly. SurveyUSA's data from this week shows Obama ahead only by 5%. American Research Group shows Obama in the lead with 10%. Rasmussen has him ahead by 14% but this is lower than their past projections.
The state's demographics are tailor-made for Obama. North Carolina's Research Triangle has many affluent educated class voters who are largely Obama supporters. Also, the state has a large number of African-Americans accounting for over 20% of the total population.
If Obama performs with this segment as well as he has done in the past elections, he should emerge victorious with a wide margin. But SurveyUSA shows that Clinton has been eating into his white-collar base lately -- 12% of voters in the Research Triangle area have tilted in Clinton's favor over just the last week. Clinton also has a significant lead of over 30% amongst the blue-collar voters in the state.
A Los Angeles Times poll taken just before the PA primary shows that 17% of the voters were still undecided. The North Carolina primary's outcome would depend on how these voters split between the candidates. However, the outcome of the contest for the nomination could draw to a close with this election. Currently Obama has a 134-delegate lead (including super-delegates). Even if Hillary successfully limits her losses in North Carolina and wins in Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia, she will be unable to close the delegate shortfall. Her only recourse is to appeal to the undecided super-delegates on the basis of popular votes. She may also try to seat Florida and Michigan delegates who will strengthen her numbers.
Published by Lami Eyer
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11 Comments
Post a CommentI meant win this thing not "when". my bad ya'll........
Good article and good prediction :-)
Very interesting. This primary is getting heated and looks to be going in one direction. Whether or not that direction will seal the deal for the Democrats is yet to be seen.
1. If you think that working class people aren't bitter after 8 years of being stepped on and shoved out of our brief economic recovery, then you are out of touch.
2. Barack Obama was raised by his white mother and grandmother. His Kenyan father left when he was young. If you'd read his book "Dreams of my Father" you would understand how much Barack has struggled with his identity and how hard it was for him to find himself as a biracial child in America. If you think this makes him racist towards white people, when his mother took care of him, then you just aren't paying attention.
3. That debate in Penn. is exactly what Barack tries to avoid. They spent an hour talking about who said what before getting to any of the real issues. It's no surprise Hillary is more adept at dodging questions and people pleasing.
4. Obama has more elected experience than Hillary. He has served in the state and federal government. Hillary has ridden on Bill's coattails to the senate and into the Whit
Before it became evident that the people closest to Obama hold disdain for this country Hillary was the clear choice. She is qualified on her own merits. Her husband led the country for 8 years. Alan Greenspan whoe words moved markets and served until presidets for over 40 years said he was the smartest president. Things aren't good. We need their experience.
Vote for Hillary, Obama can't possibly steal the election better than Mcain can:
http://surftofind.com/spitzer
By the way im a 32 year old white blue collar worker with an open mind. Im voting for Obama.
Look Barack Obama is curerently running against 2 of the most powerful attack machines in the media. People are calling him a muslim and are comparing him to Reverend Wright in his views. Stop and think, Hillary Clinton is who the republicans want to face in the fall and I gaurantee you they have alot of dirt on her that will stick including passt associations not yet mentioned. This as said by Rush Limbaugh is an attack to get Clinton as their opponent so that can win easier in the fall. If we have come so far on the issue of race then why are these smoke screens so important in getting in the way of the issues. If Obama can't deliver his message then he loses. That is what people are trying to keep him from doing so all focus will be on the negatives instead of his message. How would you geniuses feel if your name was put through the mud in an atempt to ruin your career even if things were totally false. Think before you vote. You people did this in 2004 and look how far we have come
Jacksmith- You don't have to worry about thinking if someone is an idiot. You are an idiot! Obama's controversies have been blown up because he is a black man and no matter how good a person is, politics will transform them into a devil. Obama is a very good and honorable man. He doesn't deserve the treatment he has received. He is being held at a a higher standard than the other 2 candidates. Pastor Hagee has made horrible remarks about every race or gender or religion. Just because McCain didn't attend his church, he still accepted his endorsement and his money. This isn't about who feels what, its a moral issue. Pastor Hagee's endorsement should be repudiated and completely denounced. No questions asked. Rev. Wrights words shouldn't be blown up the way they have been. I love this country but I am aware of its mistakes and flaws. Rev. Wrights sermons shouldn't be involved in this campaign. Thats why there is a separation between church and state. This was held at church and we are b
I voted for Ron Paul yesterday because he's the only candidate who seems to have read the constitution. I'm not particularly interested in the candidates the media chose for me; I'm voting for who I think is best.