North Korea: What's Next?

There has been much speculation surrounding the status of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il since he disappeared from public eye recently. Some have postulated that Mr. Kim suffered a stroke that left him incapacitated, and others have said the country is now being run by a military junta.

No matter what happened, the end of Mr. Kim's rule is rapidly approaching. At 66, he likely does not have many good years left, and the question of his succession has increasingly become the subject of debate.

The Reuters news organization published a factbox September 9 outlining some possible scenarios supplied by analysts that may materialize in the event of Mr. Kim's demise.

The first possibility, Reuters reports, is dynastic succession. Under this scenario, one of Mr. Kim's three sons would succeed their father as dictator of North Korea. So far, none of the three has been designated by Mr. Kim as heir apparent.

Second, Reuters says, is military rule. Under this scenario, the North Korean military, which is considered to be led by hard-liners, would run the country either indefinitely as a military regime, or until a leader emerged that could take over the operation of the government from the armed forces.

The third possible scenario would be one of collective leadership. Under this scenario, Reuters says, one of Mr. Kims's sons or Mr. Kim's number two man, Kim Yong-nam, could lead a collective government consisting of the Korea Workers Party, the National Defense Commission, or a coalition of parties that want to maintain the status quo.

Fourth, Reuters says, is absorption by South Korea. Under this scenario, the North Korean state would cease to exist. The peninsula could become unified under the South Korean government, which would have to absorb enormous costs associated with refugee flows and the implosion of the North Korean economy. South Korea has been planning for this contingency for some time, learning lessons from the absorption of East Germany by West Germany. But South Korea has sought to delay this possibility through the infusion of aid for many years.

Finally, the Reuters factbox mentions the issue of North Korea's nuclear security. The size of any nuclear arsenal that North Korea might possess is unknown. What is certain is that North Korea has conducted a nuclear test and is suspected of having processed nuclear fuel in quantities sufficient for several nuclear weapons. If questions arise about who is running North Korea, the issue of nuclear weapons will certainly be pushed to the forefront.