North Korea's Nuclear Pursuits - Saving Kim Jong-Il

This article is submitted as a follow-up to Content Producer Jarred Schenke's submission, Regime Survival: The Bottom Line to the Kim Jong-Il Dynasty.

The main thrust of Mr. Schenke's article is that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il intends to preserve his rule of the communist country at any cost. Mr. Schenke could not be more right in his assertion. Sadly, the quest for self-preservation is a common trait among dictators, communist and non-communist alike.

The beginning of Mr. Schenke's article talks about North Korea's nuclear pursuits as part of an overall strategy to maintain the prominence of the Kim Jong-Il government. Later in the article he talks about the use of the nuclear option as a means for elevating the status of North Korea to one of world prominence. Both angles are correct, but I think more emphasis should be put on the latter.

Kim Jong-Il desperately wants to be recognized as a great leader, worthy of a place alongside the leading figures in the world. That is why he is adamantly opposed to the six-party talks, preferring instead to call upon the United States for bilateral negotiations in which North Korea and the United States would hammer out an agreement as equals. Of course, President Bush has no intention of granting Kim Jong-Il the recognition he desires.

By testing a nuclear device in mid-October, Kim Jong-Il sought to gain membership into the elite club of nations that currently possess nuclear weapons. His boastful rhetoric about war and delivering a nuclear bomb into the heart of America are pure fantasy, though, because the North Korean military lacks any real nuclear delivery capability.

It is one thing to blow up a nuclear device in an underground bunker in your own country. It is quite another to refine the technology to a level where a nuclear warhead can be fitted to a missile capable of striking the United States. And, all indications are that North Korea is eons away from such technology.

Mr. Schenke also talks in his article about the possibility of regime collapse in North Korea. While Mr. Schenke's article dismisses this idea as "not likely," I believe the potential for governmental implosion is very real and therefore warrants further consideration.

The North Korean economy is in dire straits, to say the least. The World Food Program, which has been doing its absolute best to prevent rampant starvation among the North Korean people, recently reported that it has collected only about 10-percent of the donations it needs to continue its food aid in North Korea for the next two years. It also reported that unless contributions pick up considerably, and soon, that it will be forced to suspend aid as soon as January. This could prove catastrophic for the North Korean people, and for Kim Jong-Il. Nothing incites a populace quite so much as hunger.

It is hard to gauge just how bad the situation in North Korea really is because the country is essentially isolated from the rest of the world. But reports from defectors, and from human rights advocates who have successfully crossed into North Korea, reveal a country on the brink of collapse. Massive repression of a starving people and bleak prospects for a future of any kind threaten Kim Jong-Il's staying power for the foreseeable future. Some analysts have predicted that the regime could fall in as little as three months. True, Kim has proven to be resilient in the past.

Harsh measures involving security crackdowns and the repression of basic rights and freedoms can and probably will keep Kim around for a little while. But pressure for change is mounting with each passing day, and with each missed meal.

Both South Korea and China understand the realities of North Korea's condition. Both countries fear a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions if the government of Kim Jong-Il collapses. That is why both countries provide massive aid to prop up the communist dictatorship.

China is the leading trading partner for Kim Jong-Il and Beijing understandably fears a flood of refugees if the government in Pyongyang fails. South Korea is wary of the economic burden of sudden reintegration with the stagnating north. The leaders in Seoul were paying attention when the Berlin wall fell and the former West Germany suddenly found itself absorbing the economic difficulties of its former Soviet-bloc neighbor.

Mr. Schenke's article was informative and well-written. This submission was meant to reinforce some of his ideas and to explore some additional avenues. I hope it accomplished that.