Nuclear Negotiations

NUCLEAR MISSILE HITS HAWAII. Thousands dead, mass carnage, and total annihilation has occurred. North Korea has withdrawn from every nuclear agreement they have partaken in over the past few years, as a result of the way "the United States has responded to North Korea's proposal for negotiations with threats of a blockade and military punishment." (DPRK 57) It seems that Kim Jong Il had had enough of being bullied by the United States and decided that it was finally time to stick up for himself the only way he knew how, to fight. Fortunately this has not happened yet, but this scenario is becoming more and more realistic every day.

"North Korea's historical animus with the United States drives its nuclear weapons program...Since the Korean War ended in 1953, 37,000 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea. The United States threatened nuclear attack against both North Korea and China during the Korean War and stored nuclear weapons in South Korea until 1991. The ability to deter a U.S. led invasion and blunt U.S. coercive power is the primary objective of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. North Korea also likely sees its nuclear weapons program as a means to get leverage to extract economic concessions in negotiations with the United States and even its nuclear-armed neighbors, Russia and China. Additionally, North Korea may view nuclear weapons, and particularly the missile systems that complement them, as valuable export technology. North Korea began their nuclear research in 1964, when Kim Il Sung, the father of the current leader, Kim Jong Il, ordered construction of an atomic energy research complex in Yongbyon, 60 miles north of Pyongyang. In the 1970s, North Korea modernized the facility and began work on a second reactor nearby." (Freidman 1).

North Korea is currently researching missiles that would be able to hit the continental U.S. and may already have the technology to hit Alaska or Hawaii. There are options open to the U.S. to convince North Korea to disarm their nuclear program. The U.S. can force economic sanctions upon North Korea, they could approach the situation in a militaristic fashion and completely obliterate North Korea, or they could use diplomacy and compromise. Neither economic pressures nor disastrous military action will end North Korea's nuclear program. Diplomacy is the key.

U.S. allies have to be cooperative in what addressing this problem. The U.S. however has to be knowledgeable and understand that some plans will not draw support from their allies in the East. South Korea is the main ally in the east addressing the North Korean threat with the U.S. To achieve complete success the U.S. will need to draw support from China, North Korea's ally. Some critics claim that the chances of China helping the U.S. are very slim. (Cumings 45) They say "China wants the north to stay in power: it's 'a case of looking for love in all the wrong places.'" (45) China does want to continue negotiations though. They want to help in the denuclearization of North Korea. China has recently said through a Foreign Ministry spokesman, regarding the six-party talks which are a negotiation platform between the U.S., Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea, that they "hope six-party talks will continue." (Jie-Ae, Malveaux 1) They later furthered their expression of hope by stating that "China persistently stands for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the maintenance of peace and stability there." (1) China defends North Korea in the six-part talks and continues to send aid, welcome refugees, and sell large amounts of fuel to North Korea. (Hachigian 2) It would be very foolish to do something that would upset China in the six-party talks. The consequences would be worse than anything that North Korea could ever hope to accomplish. This is why it is important to keep China's best interest in mind. To make any solution work the U.S., South Korea, and China must stay unified. Without cooperation from any of the three, trying to place plans in action to stop the North Korean nuclear problem will crumble.

Economic pressures are not favorable in the eyes of South Korea or China, yet the U.S. has some "inside (and outside) the Bush administration who will renew their calls for a strategy of economic pressures instead of diplomacy." (2). South Korea doesn't show support because pushing North Korea deeper and deeper into debt will not lead to a sound and economically healthy reunification of the two countries. For this reason they would continue to send food and supplies to help North Korea's people and to sustain North Korea's economy. China shows very little support toward this plan as well, because they gain large amounts of money in return for providing "more than seventy percent of North Korea's fuel." (2) Like South Korea, China also supplies many goods to North Korea to provide for the civilians so that they do not have to provide for as many refugees crossing over the border, who often seek citizenship (2). With economic pressures pressed upon North Korea the amount of refugees trying to cross the border would surely increase causing a massive influx in population which is one thing that China does not want.

Economic pressures would be devastating to the North Koreans. "Shortages of food, energy, and foreign exchange [would] cripple industry and trade." (U.S. Dept. of Defense 2) With trade and industry crippled North Korea would sink lower and lower into the pit of economic depression. Kim Jong Il, the leader of North Korea, would do what ever it takes to pull him and his country out of that pit.
"It is one of the scariest scenarios the post-cold-war world has produced: an economically-desperate North Korea, its leadership as isolated as ever, rejects every effort the West makes to persuade it to abandon its steadfast pursuit of a nuclear bomb. Instead, it issues warnings about the possibility of war, which are promptly echoed by a high-ranking U.S. Defense Department official visiting Seoul. North Korea's troops, seventy percent of which are gathered within sprinting distance of the Korean peninsula's tripwire demilitarized zone, go on combat alert and Communist Party officials gather at a hurried called meeting in Pyongyang, the North Korean Capital." (Cumings 44)

Suddenly the whole east is thrown into a war and nuclear fallout obliterates hundreds of thousands of families. This scenario could be forced into action if economic pressures are forced upon North Korea. There are many other things a desperate Kim Jong Il may do in the event of being backed into a corner. He may resort to selling "missiles
Hwang Jang Yop was a "high-ranking member of the North Korean government for forty years and now advocates efforts by South Korea, the United States, and other countries to remove the North Korean regime." (Yop 1) Yop has said that "[South Korea] has to prevent North Korea's provocation by strengthening [their] alliance with the U.S. and Japan and by beefing up [South Korea's] military power." (Yop 3) He believes that South Korea should no longer "tolerate provocation by North Korea," (3) and that if North Korea does provoke South Korea than "South Korea should retaliate with a ten-fold force." (3) Others such as Charles R. Smith agree with Yop. Charles feels that if the U.S. was to launch "A pre-emptive...strike against selective targets inside North Korea [it] will succeed." (Smith 1) He believes that "the north Korean army would not fight after the regime collapsed." (1) Even if all this was true, at what cost would this war cost us. North Korea has the "fifth largest armed forces in the world." (U.S. Dept. of Defense 3) General Gary Luck, who is the U.S. commander in Korea, believes that "he would need as many as 80,000 to 100,000 body bags in the field for the American soldiers who would die in the new Korean War, and Korean troop casualties could reach the hundreds of thousands." (Cumings 72) These totals do not even start to measure the carnage of a nuclear bomb being used in the battle field or having a nuclear bomb being launched at the continental United States. North Korea is developing the technology to do so at this second and China, North Korea's ally already has the technology, and has plenty of nukes to spare. Nuclear bombs could rain down on countless cities in the states, killing millions. There would be no place to seek safety, everyone would lead their day worrying if it would be the day when the sirens would yell, only to see a great flash jump into the sky, then just seconds later to have death swept across them.

Nuclear weapons are not the only thing that North Korea would have at its disposal if it was forced in to a war. The North Korean Armed Forces has the "world's third largest army" (U.S. Dept. of Defense 3) holding a "million active duty ground forces" (3) and "over six million reserves" (3). North Korea has "over one-thousand six-hundred fighter and bomber planes, more than eight-hundred ships, two-thousands tanks, eight-thousand artillery systems, twelve-thousand self-propelled and towed weapon systems, five hundred long-ranges systems, over five-hundred SCUDS systems of various forms, and have the largest special operation force in the world, consisting of over a hundred-thousand elite personnel" (3). "Without moving any artillery pieces, the North could sustain up to 500,000 rounds an hour against U.S. - South Korean Combined Forces Command defenses for several hours." (3) These pieces also "threaten all of Seoul, [the capital of North Korea,] with devastating attacks." (3) Oh, and if all this doesn't get your attention don't forget that the U.S. Department of Defense estimates that North Korea has "produced monition stockpiles of up to five thousand metric tons of several types of chemical agents." (3) These agents include "nerve, choking, blister, and blood." (4) The U.S. Department of Defense also estimates that North Korea has the "capability to develop, produce, and weaponize biological warfare agents, to include bacterial spores causing anthrax and smallpox and the bacteria causing the plague and cholera." (4) Also according to analyst Benjamin Freidman "If North Korea restarts its five-megawatt facility, (which was forced to be shut down by the Agreed Framework treaty) which would likely take about two months, it could produce at least one nuclear weapon per year beginning in mid 2003." (Freidman 3) He also goes on to explain how "when completed, the two facilities could produce around fifty-five nuclear weapons annually." (3) Military action would be extremely dangerous to both sides.
U.S. forces would sustain serious losses and with Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, "developing multistage missiles with the goal of fielding systems capable of striking the Continental United States." (U.S. Dept. of Defense 3) and "The Yongbyon facility today housing 3,000 scientists and researchers, many of who studied nuclear technology in the Soviet Union, China, and Pakistan" (Friedman 3) it is only a matter of time before North Korea is able to target U.S. civilians not only with SCUD missiles but also nuclear warheads and biological weapons. With these capabilities North Korea would pose a serious threat to the U.S. and may be able to "offset our conventional military superiority" (U.S. Dept. of Defense 3) Going to war with North Korea could cause nuclear fallout. North Korea may attack not only the United States with Nuclear weapons but also, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and other Asian neighbors. Many of these countries are nuclear powers and may respond in retaliation by nuking North Korea. If this happens North Korea would be obliterated, millions of Koreans would die, much of the Korean peninsula would be uninhabitable for many years, the economy be down the drain. Many North Korean military personnel would survive however in one of their "four thousand underground facilities" (3) and would probably launch a counter attack, over a million North Koreans hiding throughout the country using guerilla warfare against U.S. troops and any other country who tried to impose a new form of government. With that many people opposing the change it would be almost impossible to form a new, stable, government, let alone reunify it with the South. It would be another unwanted war in the U.S. where they don't benefit anything but death from it. Using military action would toss everything out the door, and solve nothing. It would cause North Korea to create more nuclear weapons and beef up their already massive army. Reunification would be pushed out of site and may not even be able to occur. Taking this course would cause millions of deaths and eradication of entire cities. This is why military attack on North Korea shouldn't even be considered and a different course should be pursued.

Negotiations have been going on between U.S., its allies, and North Korea for years now and many agreements have been settled upon. "In 1985 North Korea, under pressure, signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)" (Freidman 2). This treaty created requirements for North Korea to follow in their creation of nuclear facilities and allowed for inspections. Although this treaty did fail it was not because of North Korea's failure to negotiate it was because of the U.S.'s "hostile policy." (DPRK 57) Then on Oct. 21, 1994 North Korea signed the Agreed Framework treaty (Freidman 2). This called for the "freezing [of] nuclear production" (Freidman 2) by Kim Jong II, for an "exchange for a relaxation of economic sanctions, a gradual move toward normalization of diplomatic relations, fuel oil deliveries, and construction of a light-water reactor to replace the graphite-moderated reactor shut down in Pyongyang." (Friedman 3) North Korea broke this treaty a few years later, only after the U.S. "violated the DPRK-US Agreed Framework, [when] the U.S. brought up another "nuclear suspicion" and stopped the supply of heavy oil, reducing the AF to a dead document." (DPRK 59) This suspicion was never proved, so why was oil shipping stopped? It was another one of those moments when Bush and the government just had the wrong information and decided that it was best to stop shipping oil. When the suspicion was never confirmed however the U.S. should have resumed its side of the bargain and began shipping oil again. The U.S. not only has done this they have also "responded to North Korea's proposal for negotiations with threats of a blockade and military punishment," (57) and has also listed North Korea as part of an "axis of evil" and targeted them for a "pre-emptive nuclear attack." (57) It is no wonder that North Korea makes statements such as: "Only if the United States drops its 'hostile policy' will North Korea provide evidence that it is not making nuclear weapons." (57) After the Framework incident North Korea sent a "sincere proposal for the conclusion of the DPRK-US non-aggression treaty and its patient efforts for negotiations with such threats as 'blockade' and 'military punishment' and with such an arrogant attitude as blustering that it may talk but negotiations are impossible." (59) The U.S. did not even give North Korea a chance at new negotiations unless it was suggested by the U.S. It was either the U.S.'s way or the highway. Many of the treaties given to North Korea have been forced upon them. The U.S. must change its policy of never being wrong if it ever wants to get anywhere with North Korea or they will end up having another war on their hands.
Talks have begun again and must continue. If the U.S. and its allies allow for North Korea to be treated equally and not force or pressure them into any unwanted deals than North Korea may begin to change. Sound compromises and agreements don't just happen over night they take a long time and continual attention. If the U.S. uses negotiations not only will they be able to disable North Korea's Nuclear Program but will also be able to accomplish many other things that they would never be able to do if they sought a military course of action or applied economic pressures against North Korea.

The U.S. would be able to begin to help reunify the Koreas. This would create an even more powerful ally for the United States. Trade would also prosper for the Koreas because of the less malicious attitude of North Korea towards western and other worldly powers. The U.S. could end occupation in South Korea if the two countries were able to reunify allowing many men and women to return home to the states. Through negotiations North Korea could gain its needed economic aid without having to threaten anyone, allowing them to remain an aid-based country. North Korea could disarm much of their army, not only allowing people to seek other professions and increase the special services available in North Korea, lowering the chance of an arms race in Asia, and lowering North Koreas dependence on "power generation and distribution, communications, and transportation." (U.S. Dept. of Defense 2) A war could be avoided by using negotiations. The possibility of the obliteration of a few cities could be dodged and millions of lives could be saved on both sides. Through negotiations the Korean threat could be neutralized.

If we force economic pressures on North Korea, it would force them into a corner which may cause them to continue their nuclear program. If the United States seeks a military solution there could be devastating aftermath. A war would cause the death of millions of people, it would put North Korea's economy in a blender, and it may even make much of North Korea uninhabitable because of nuclear fallout. North Korea may use nuclear weapons to kill many U.S. soldiers and civilians, also North Korea may target U.S. allies with their bombs including China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. Through negotiations the repercussion of military action and economic pressures can avoided. Negotiations would allow for both sides, the U.S. and its allies, and the North Koreans to benefit. It would allow North Korea and South Korea to ease into reunification and allow the United States to disarm North Korea's Nuclear Missile program. By doing this we would no longer have to worry about waking up to the noise of a siren warning us that a nuclear bomb is being dropped on one of our cities.

Work Cited

Cumings, Bruce. North Korea Another Country. New York: The New Press, 2003
Friedman, Benjamin. "Fact Sheet: North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program." Center for Defense Information. 23 Jan. 2003. 4 Feb. 2006 .
Hachigian, Nina. "The United States Must Use Diplomacy to End North Korea's Nuclear Program." Is North Korea a Global Threat? (2005) Opposing View Points Center. Gale. Walled Lake Western Media Center, MI. 27 Jan. 2006 .
Yop, Hwang J. "North Korea Must Be Disarmed" Is North Korea a Global Threat? (2005) Opposing View Points Center. Gale. Walled Lake Western Media Center. Walled Lake, MI. 27 Jan. 2006
Jie-Ae, Sohn and Suzanne Malveaux. "World regrets North Korea's quitting nuke talks." CNN 10 Feb. 2005, World ed. 5 Feb. 2006 .
Smith, Charles R. "Attack North Korea Before It's Too Late, Key Defector Warns." NewsMax 10 July 2003. 7 Mar. 2006 .
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "North Korea Must Protect Itself from Vicious U.S. Policies." Is North Korea a Global Threat? Ed. Debra A. Miller. Detroit: Greenhaven Press, 2005
United States Department of Defense. North Korea Is a Serious Military Threat. Washington: 2003