NY 23 Election Results: Why Did Hoffman Lose?
President Obama and his acolytes will no doubt say that the people of the New York 23rd Congressional District "rejected the politics of hate and fear" promulgated by Doug Hoffman, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, blah, blah, blah.
Roger Simon suggests that Doug Hoffman was too much of a social conservative and not enough of a fiscal conservative. That explanation might be closer to the truth where it comes to the New York 23rd Congressional District.
But it should be noted that there are technical reasons for Doug Hoffman's defeat, having to do with Dede Scozzafava. Dede Scozzafava seems to have succeeded in taking out Doug Hoffman in two ways.
First, Dede Scozzafava withdrew from the race at the last minute, thus making it too late to take her name off of the printed ballots. Also Dede Scozzafava was still a candidate when most of the absentee ballots were used. That resulted in just over six thousand votes for Dede Scozzafava that otherwise might have gone to Doug Hoffman, giving him a narrow victory. The people who voted for Dede Scozzafava were likely mostly people who were either confused about her not being in the race or straight ticket voters who always vote for the Republican.
Dede Scozzafava's endorsement of Bill Owens likely drove those of her supporters to the Democrat who were attracted to her more liberal views, especially on social issues. That padded Bill Owens' vote total and helped give him the margin of victory. Dede Scozzafava may have no future in politics, but Doug Hoffman is not going to Washington this year.
Whatever significance the New York 23rd Congressional District will certainly be argued about. It does suggest a Republican Party that is not so much in turmoil as it is in flux, deciding how conservative it wants to be. Also it suggests that the Republican Party bosses who hand-picked Dede Scozzafava need replacing and that new rules allowing for a primary to pick a candidate for a special election need to be enacted quickly.
Against the backdrop of Republican triumphs in Virginia and New Jersey, the New York 23rd Congressional District results may have little significance. But Dou Hoffman's defeat hurt because conservatives invested a lot of emotion in his candidacy. Polling data had suggested that Doug Hoffman was headed for a win. But the polling data, as it often does, lied. Let that be a lesson.
Sources: Democrat wins House seat in heavily GOP area in NY, Valerie Bauman, AP, November 4th
Election 2009: The Strange Case of NY 23, Roger Simon, Pajamas Media, November 3rd, 2009
Published by Mark Whittington
Mark R. Whittington is a writer residing in Houston, Texas. He is the author of The Last Moonwalker, Children of Apollo, Dark Sanction, and Nocturne. He has written numerous articles, some for the Washington... View profile
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7 Comments
Post a CommentI personally would have voted for DeDe in that Congressional district.
Congrats on winning Best of AC Politics, Mark.
And DW NJ 23, check out my link in the below comment. You guys are right to be ticked off. Like you needed Palin sticking her nose in your local business!
Well, here's MY take on why the democrat won: Blah blah blah: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2355658/democrat_owens_prevails_in_ny_house.html?cat=9. As for Joe's reply, anyone who seriously thinks Acorn has all that much power has just proven themselves to be a Fox zombie.
Dems capture a seat held by the GOP since the Civil War, and you call it insignificant? The Republican party so totally mishandled this one, that it's laughable!
Looks like another win for ACORN to me. I wonder how many votes they had to manufacture this time?
Doug Hoffman's defeat was a backlash against the trashing of Dede Scozzafava who is within the mainstream of the Republican Party in NYS. It doesn't make a lot of sense to attack moderate members of a moderate party as RINOs. The attacks on Dede were an attack on many members of the voting bloc Doug needed to win. Mr. Hoffman's defeat was also a backlash against outside money, and big name interference in a local election. We are an independent bunch and didn't need outsider to figure this out. Strong Labor support has been part of the winning REPUBLICAN coalition for over 2 decades in NY-23. No labor, no win for Hoffman. Dede wasn't the spoiler. He asked her to drop out of the race more than once the last two weeks, and she finally did. Also, dede did not support him at the end because Hoffman broke his word after going through the process that selected Dede to run. Character counts and many voters saw Hoffman's bolting the Republican party as a lack of integrity.
Nothing go