NY Giants Can't Beat Green Bay Packers on Paper

The late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan once told an opponent that while everyone was entitled to their own opinion no one was entitled their own facts. It seems fitting that a lifelong servant to the state of New York makes clear the problem with predictions (sporting and otherwise).

Predictions are opinions with facts (usually few and far between) added to suggests credibility to the opinion and not necessarily to support the opinion. In the tradition of Senator Moynihan, I offer my prediction for the 2008 NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants. I will first examine two leading opinions about this contest.

Opinion:

Green Bay benefits from the home-field because of the cold weather.

Fact:

Green Bay, like every other team in the NFL, played 8 games on the road. If you combine the road games and those played at home prior to December, which thanks to global warming is the new September, you'll notice that Green Bay has played, on average, no more games in cold weather than any team that plays in the north eastern region of the country. Two of Green Bay's three losses, which features a cold-weather 35-7 massacre, were against Chicago, not known as a warm weather team.

Opinion:

The Giants are a great road team, so playing at Green Bay is actually a benefit, not an issue.

Fact:

The Giants won games when they played well, no turnovers, sustained offensive drives, solid pressure defense. The fact that they were on the road is irrelevant. They lost to Dallas on the road because of mistakes. They won in Buffalo and London (Miami game) in spite of mistakes.

History/Current Affairs:

These teams played on September 13, 2007. The Giants were up 10-7 at the half. What happened? Brett Farve happened. Farve completed his first 14 second-half passes and threw three touchdown passes to rally the Green Bay Packers to a 35-13 victory over the New York Giants' porous defense. Eli and the Giant offense had no answers. These are not the same Giants.

Eli has had a passing rating of over 100.00 in his last three games against three division championship defenses (Cowboys, Bucs, Patriots). However, the running game, will be key to the Giants success against Green Bay. Running back Derrick Ward gain just 90 yards in the first meeting of the team. Brandon Jacobs, the featured back has improved, though he still looks timid for his size. The emergence of rookie Ahmed Bradshaw (250^th pick) has given the Giants a speedy elusive outside running threat. Could this finally be the Thunder and Lightning Giants fans have longed for since Ron Dayne (Denver) went bust? Maybe, the Giants running corps has combined for over 2000 yards.

The defense has improved as well. The Giants lead the league in sacks. The "patchwork" secondary with names like Ross, Pope and Webster have held some of the leagues top receivers in check. R.W McQuarters, who has looked like another Giant draft gone bad, was a one man wrecking crew against Dallas. The linebackers will have to step up because they have been beaten often by slant routes and underneath crossing patterns by slot receivers and tight ends. Brett Farve will throw the ball to anyone eligible,not just deep to receivers.

On paper in almost every stat, including head to head, Green Bay is the better team. Their hall of fame quarterback is better and more experienced. Their receivers are younger, more physical and healthier. They have won more games againts tougher opponents. There is one thing the Giants have going for them. Unlike tic-tac-toe, football isn't played on paper.