NY Mets - Who's at First?

The New York Mets seem to be zeroed in on four potential first base options for the 2010 season. The candidates, as defined by the local media are as follows:

Daniel Murphy - I list him first because he would appear to be the incumbent. Murphy finished last year as the starting first baseman and hit for a lower average and more power than most expected. If the second base experiment had worked out, and he had spent the season as a second baseman, Murphy's .266 average with 12 HRs would have been more than acceptable. But on a team so sorely lacking power, a dozen home runs at first base is unacceptable. Players who have made a career at the position without showing much power have always batted consistently well above .300. Think Keith Hernandez, Mark Grace and Rod Carew. As much as I like Murphy's attitude and work ethic, his numbers do not make a good case for the Mets winning with Murphy at first base in 2010.

Nick Johnson - In eight years in the majors, Johnson has averaged .273 with 19 home runs in a season. The disturbing numbers with Johnson are these. In those eight seasons, he has played 129 or more games in only half of them. Though he is an above average hitter with an outstanding eye at the plate and a slick fielder at first, Nick Johnson is a "coin toss" to be there. I think that after the horror that was the 2009 season, the Mets might be a tad leery of such a proposition.

Russell Branyan - Branyan is a career .234 hitter who averages 30 home runs per 162 games. His career on base percentage is a dismal .331 as well. Those numbers should scream Dave Kingman to the Mets. Notably, Branyan's best season was last year when he batted .251 with 31 homers. I will have more to say on this later in the article. Lastly for Branyan, last year was only the first year he has managed to get over 500 at bats. Whether because of injury, or lack of performance, in 12 major league seasons, he has had only one year in which he has managed to log over 500 at bats.

Carlos Delgado - Delgado has had a career that many would consider Hall of Fame worthy. In his career, he has produced on average, a solid .280 batting average and .383 on base percentage with an average of 38 home runs per season. However many cite two of the last three years as reasons not to bring him back. In 2007 he had one of his worst seasons ever when he batted .258 with 24 home runs. This brings me back to Branyan whose best season was .251 with 31 home runs. Yes, Branyan hit seven more home runs, but let's look a bit deeper. In Branyan's career best season, he drove in 76 runs while striking out 149 times. Delgado in what was one of his worst seasons drove in 87 runs and struck out 118 times. Before last season, Delgado had been a veritable iron man averaging 148 games per season. And yet some cite injury fears as a reason to select someone like Nick Johnson over Delgado. Considering Johnson's "coin toss" status, I find this to be absolute lunacy. Based upon the second half of the 2008 season and the way he began the 2009 season, we can safely infer that carlos Delgado has not lost his offensive skills. The only reasonable question to ask is whether advance age (in baseball parlance) will render Delgado unusually susceptible to injury. If we were talking about a shortstop (relax Derek!) or a center fielder, I might be concerned. But first base is a position that more readily allows players to be productive into their late thirties. All things considered, Carlos Delgado is the best gamble among the four.