Obama Leads Presidential Polls in Minnesota

The state of Minnesota has always had a reputation of being one of the Midwestern "battle ground" states, and with 11 electoral votes, it could be key to either candidate winning the presidency. Democratic nominee Barack Obama began the race with a commanding lead in the presidential polls in Minnesota. Though John McCain has started to close the gap, Obama still maintains that comfortable lead.

According to the website RealClearPolitics, Obama is averaging about a 7-point lead in the presidential polls in Minnesota. RCP takes an average of four different presidential polls in Minnesota to come up with that average. Obama's largest lead came in the CNN/Time poll, where he had a 12-point lead over McCain, while the closest poll was SurveyUSA which said Obama only had a 2 point lead in Minnesota. Obama started the race with an 11-point lead in May, but McCain has continually drawn closer, getting his closest last week after the successful Republican National Convention, which was held in downtown St. Paul. McCain was within 4 and half points of Obama after the convention, but after the excitement of the convention died down, Obama's lead rebounded back to 7 points, where it seems to have plateaued.

Aside from his lead in the presidential polls in Minnesota, Obama also has history on his side. Minnesota has only voted Republican in three elections since World War II: once for Richard Nixon in 1972, and twice for Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. While the state of Minnesota may seem to be fairly split between liberals and conservatives, that history seems to indicate that the state will lean blue in any close presidential election.

Despite history indicating that Minnesota will go to Obama, Minnesota has still played a key role in this presidential election. The Republican Party held their national convention in St. Paul this September, though I don't think the event resonated locally as much just because the event was so cloistered. Unlike the Democratic National Convention where so many people were able to witness Obama's speech at INVESCO Field, most Minnesotans experience was like the rest of the country: viewed on television. Obama has also had a few key events in Minnesota. During the Democratic primaries, Obama sold out the 60,000 seat Metrodome for a speech, and Obama chose the XCel Center to give a speech the night it was determined that he would be the presumptive Democratic candidate for the presidency.

Campaigning in Minnesota has cooled a bit since those big events, but if the presidential polls in Minnesota get any closer, and the McCain campaign views Minnesota as a winnable state, campaign stops and TV ads in the state should increase likely. In all likelihood, however, barring something major happening to Barack Obama or his campaign, Obama should maintain his lead of somewhere between 5-10 points and be able to carry the state of Minnesota in November.