Obama Makes History in Iowa

No African-American candidate for the nomination of his party has ever one a single state caucus or primary. The closest, Reverend Jesse Jackson, came in 5^th in 1988 with 2% of the vote. Barack Obama changed that in Iowa last week. What does that mean? Well, it means one down quite a few to go. I am now a full-fledged Obama supporter. I assure you, I wasn't easily swayed. It was a long road from the Sports Oasis Cafe at Camp Victory, Iraq where I first heard Barack Obama. The 1^st term senator from Illinois was delivering a speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. I remember waiting to order breakfast and thinking, "Who is this Guy?", "He's going to be a star in the party someday." I had no idea then how quickly someday would come.

Obama's Iowa win is significant not only because he is Africa-American. It is significant because he offers what Iowans (and possibly the rest of America) wants-change. However, make no mistake, the fact that he is African-American is a huge part of why the win in Iowa is significant. It is also why remaining candidates should be worried. Iowa's population is 92% white and 38% of Iowans live in rural areas. These were not left-wing big city liberals casting a vote in an attempt to shed a little white guilt. Iowans viewed Obama as a serious candidate and an alternative to politics as usual in Washington. Iowans voted for change, for something different, something fresh. Obama's ability to capture this demographic (white and rural) had an immediate effect on the democratic race-not the least of which-- the exit of Senators Christopher Dodd and Joseph Biden.

Senator Dodd, who moved his family to Iowa and campaigned over the holidays, is a popular senator from Connecticut. He also speaks fluid Spanish, which was to give him the ability to compete with former New Mexico Government Bill Richardson for the increasingly important Hispanic vote. Biden is regarded as one of the most knowledgeable politicians in the beltway on foreign policy and constitutional law. Yet, neither Dodd nor Biden captured more 2% of the vote in Iowa.

Perhaps more important is the message Iowa sends to Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator John Edwards. Obama had a great showing among young first-time voters and women. The Illinois Senator had the support of 39% of first-time caucus participants, 10 % more than Clinton and about 20% more than Edwards. Obama's support among women is a very bad sign for the Clinton. Women comprised 56% of Democratic voters. Clinton won only 30% to Obama's 33%.

I am not anointing Obama with the nomination. The primary season has just began and while many states have moved their contests forward to February 5 (SUPER-DUPER Tuesday) there is still a long way to go. However, Obama does enjoy, at least until New Hampshire, front-runner status and all that comes with it; the good (more campaign contributions) and the bad (more criticism). He can neither afford to be a cautious quarterback with a fourth quarter lead nor a hapless rookie forcing things in an effort to win a close game.

Some early polling in New Hampshire has Clinton ahead of Obama by as much as 32% with John Edwards, the runner-up in Iowa, at 20%. No other Democrat is in double digits. Nationally, Clinton holds a wide lead over Obama. Pollsters have routinely and almost uniformly put Clinton at about 41% and Obama at 24%. But Iowa is likely to shift even those questionable numbers in his favor.

Should we pay so much attention to early polling, not to mention the voting numbers of two small states in a 50 state process? In a word, yes. Here is why.

It has been noted by many who question our nominating process, that the presidency is a national election and too much emphasis is put on early Primaries/Caucasus. After all, Clinton does still maintain a solid lead in almost every national poll and has since announcing her candidacy. So, there is no need to panic, right? Well, maybe. This primary season (the longest in our nation's history) may all be over on February 6, at least for the democrats. Consider 5 facts:

• Obama has won Iowa, dispelling myths about voting habits concerning race and gender.

• One year ago Clinton was all but given the nomination, yet she came in 3^rd, not 2^nd , in Iowa.

• Senator Joe Biden, has more legislative experience than Clinton and Obama combined, yet he and Senator Chris Dodd are out after one contest.

• The proximity of the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary, just 5 days, make positive momentum a major factor.

• 5 years ago no one outside of Illinois politics knew who Barack Obama was.

Finally, between the New Hampshire Primary on January 8^th and Super Tuesday February 5, South Carolina voters will get their say. The South Carolina primary is on January 19. Making the southern state an almost must win for whoever enters that primary in third. Last month the huge turnout and enthusiasm at the Obama/Oprah "rally/rival" in South Carolina indicates an Obama following that will not concede to local boy John Edwards or the beloved "Clinton" name. If Obama wins South Carolina, or finishes a strong second, he may be well on his way to making history again; thanks in a part to a state where African-American history has not always been positive.