Obama Wins Debate Focus Group: Will He Win Maryland Too?

It could have come as no surprise to any Marylander when the Washington Post reported that Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. After all, a heartfelt advertisement and personal appearance by Bill Clinton in the last days of the campaign may have been what carried O'Malley over the finish-line to victory on election night. But will the rest of Maryland Democrats follow O'Malley's lead?

Actual polling data for Maryland is also scarce. But in a blue state like Maryland, there are some trends that merit watching. In late May, the Maryland Democratic Party hosted an informal 2008 Blue Crab Presidential Poll. Hillary Clinton placed a distant third. Barack Obama garnered 26%, and Al Gore, who isn't even running, received 21% of the vote. Naturally, the usefulness of an online poll is limited in light of the fact that respondents are self-selected. But if the poll can be used as an early indicator of the sentiments of the party's online activists, Hillary Clinton isn't "inevitable" in Maryland. She'll have to fight Obama for the Free State.

After last night's debate, MSNBC reported that focus groups thought Barack Obama put in the best performance. If this trend continues, Obama could tip the scales against Clinton. Especially in states like Maryland which has one of the highest percentages of black voters in the country. While this demographic group is a major and loyal constituency of the Democratic Party, there's no telling how their influence might shake out in the primary. June's Gallup Survey showed that black voters were nearly evenly divided between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. The two Senators are said to be in a tight battle for the black vote across the country, and that battle might play out dramatically in Maryland.

In 2006, the former leader of the NAACP, Kweisi Mfume, ran for the U.S. Senate against an unexciting, but well-liked white congressman, Ben Cardin. Though Mfume's campaign was besieged by money problems and personal baggage to spare, Mfume still garnered 41% of the Democratic Primary votes cast according to the Maryland State Board of Elections.

Barack Obama's position dwarfs Mfume's. Obama is not only the most well-funded black candidate in history, but he's not plagued with a problematic past. In short, Barack Obama is potentially the cross-over candidate that black voters in Maryland have been waiting for. In spite of the warm feelings the Clintons evoke amongst black voters, the lure of Obama's symbolism may be hard for Hillary Clinton to conquer.

After all, Barack Obama also campaigned for the Democratic ticket in Maryland in 2006. He turned out record crowds for Ben Cardin who was running against black Republican Michael Steele. During that visit to Maryland, the Associated Press reported that Obama joked that he thought it was "Great that the Republican Party has discovered black people. But here's the thing. You don't vote for somebody because of what they look like. You vote for somebody because of what they stand for."

In Barack Obama's case, Maryland primary voters may choose him for both reasons.

--
John Wagner, "It's Official: O'Malley Endorses Clinton," Maryland Moment, Washington Post
Kristen Wyatt, "Obama tells Md. Blacks to Vote on Issues," The Associated Press
Mark Murray, "Obama Wins CNN Focus Group," MSNBC.com