Obama's Folding a Winning Hand in the Debt Ceiling Game

COMMENTARY | In the high stakes poker debt ceiling game, President Barack Obama seems to be willing to show the Republicans the Democrats' cards as he folds a winning hand. In an effort to appease the deficit hawks and the suddenly national debt-conscious, the Obama administration has signaled that it is willing to throw their aces into the pot and allow the Republicans to take everything. Their aces? Social Security, Medicare, Paul Ryan's restructuring plan and the debt ceiling itself.

In a Pew Research poll, 60 percent of respondents said that entitlement programs should be untouched. Only 32 percent thought that reducing the budget deficit was more important than maintaining the integrity of the benefits systems at their current levels.

Protecting Social Security and Medicare was one of Sen. Barack Obama's campaign pledges. Given that many liberals are still fuming over the fact that Guantanamo remains open and troops are still in Iraq and Afghanistan, they just might find reasons to stay home for Election Day 2012 if Obama (with the help of the Democrats in Congress) decide to renege on another promise.

Protecting the two entitlement programs amount to two aces. Democrats received a third ace with the Ryan Medicare restructuring plan, which was poorly received. Republicans are now looking for ways to save face for their 2012 campaigns. Another poll indicates that Americans would blame Republicans if a compromise was not reached on the debt ceiling and the government was forced to shut down. Ace number four.

Obama and the Democrats have a winning hand. As long as they call and don't fold.

But they can't win if Obama allows cuts to Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid as part of a compromise deal with Congressional Republicans, who have as yet offered next to nothing in return to Democratic concessions amounting to $1 trillion. All that Republicans seem to be willing to discuss are more and more Democratic concessions and the possibility of giving up a few tax loopholes.

The Pew Research poll also found that 61 percent of Americans believe Medicare recipients already pay enough of their health costs, with 58 percent saying that states should not have the ability to take away recipients' benefits to help deal with budget problems.

Republicans have a couple high cards concerning deficit reduction, but nothing to stay in play. If the Democrats don't stand pat and call their bluff on the debt ceiling, they will most likely bankrupt themselves for the next game: the 2012 elections, including the presidential race.