Officials: Possible Russia - Georgia War

More details have emerged regarding a posting I published October 23 regarding the establishment of permanent Russian military bases on sovereign Georgian territory, specifically in the South Ossetia and Abkhazia provinces. Pavel Felgenhauer, writing for the Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor October 23, "It is expected that in a couple of days the Russian parliament will ratify treaties of 'friendship, cooperation, and mutual assistance' with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The two identical treaties will allow military cooperation and 'joint guarding of borders.'"

Moscow is continuing to formalize ties with both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, even though the international community considers the provinces to be part of Georgia. Russia has recognized the two provinces' independence declarations. It's not difficult to see that formal agreements that grant Russian military forces the authority to "guard" provincial borders within Georgia could escalate tensions and increase the risk of renewed conflict.

There are a few hundred international observers from the European Union in Georgia, but they are unarmed and outside the disputed provinces. In other words, they are only able to interact with and exercise influence upon one party - Georgia.

Felgenhauer also reports that South Ossetian rebel leader Eduard Kokoity "...has accused the Georgians of deploying Special Forces on the border, of shooting at Ossetian positions, and of kidnapping Ossetians. Kokoity has ordered his forces to shoot back at the Georgians, who 'have continued their policy of aggression and provocation in the border area.'" And while the South Ossetians, now allied with Russia, are making accusations of aggression and provocation against Georgia, the Georgian government, Felgenhauer says, "...has in turn accused the Russians of 'armed provocations,' shooting at the Georgian police, and mining roads."

Russia outlets have joined the fray as well, accusing Georgia of plotting terrorist attacks within Russia and supplying Chechen rebels with arms to be used against Russian forces. There's a lot of finger pointing going on, and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that war between Georgia and Russia could break out again. "There is no political settlement in sight," Felgenhauer writes, "and the ceasefire continues to be fragile. There is no genuine disengagement of forces; the EU observers are few and unarmed."

If war does break out again, it will likely mean the end of the current Georgian government. And, given the realities the west faces right now with a NATO commitment to Afghanistan and U.S. obligations in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is likely very little the United States and Europe could or would do to intervene.