Ohio Governor's Race is Too Close to Call

September polls showed Republican Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich leading incumbent Democratic Governor candidate Ted Strickland by eight points. According to the Plain Dealer this week, Ted Strickland has narrowed that gap.

The Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati conducted a poll of 839 likely Ohio voters throughout the state between October 14^th and 18^th. This poll showed John Kasich (49 percent) leading Ted Strickland (47 percent) by only 2 percentage points. The margin of error was 3.3 percent. A Rasmussen poll (Oct. 13^th) shows Kasich at 48 percent and Strickland at 45 percent.

I conducted my own small poll that included 88 likely voters consisting of family, friends, coworkers, and acquaintances. I used the University of Cincinnati poll as a guideline and broke down my results according geographical region and age of likely voters.

Geographical Region-Total: 840 likely voters

Northeast and Southeast Ohio favor Ted Strickland with a total of 395 people polled. Northwest, Central, and Southwest Ohio voters favor John Kasich with 445 people polled.

Ted Strickland leads in the urban counties with 401 people polled while John Kasich leads in suburban and rural counties with 439 voters polled.

The candidates split the votes according to geographical regions. The gap between the percentages was 4 percent (Kasich-Rural) and 16 percent (Kasich-Southwest Ohio).

My Poll's Geographical Region-Total: 88 likely voters

My poll was only conducted in Northeast Ohio due to my geographical location. But I managed to include suburban, rural, and urban areas of Cuyahoga, Medina, Lorain, and Lake Counties.

Ted Strickland led my poll 51 percent to John Kasich's 49 percent with 45 people voting for Strickland and 43 people voting for Kasich. It seems that Northeast Ohio is just as split as the rest of the state.

Stephanie Barber, 38, lives in Cuyahoga County and would like to see Ted Strickland remain in office because, "I don't believe that the economy is his fault. He has no control over unemployment."

By contrast Jim Preston, 42, from Medina County believes, "Strickland has done nothing but spend. Ohio sinks lower and lower and all he worries about is a casino in Cleveland."

Voter Age-Total: 825 likely voters

Ted Strickland leads with voters age 18-19 and 65 and over with 264 voters polled. John Kasich leads with all the ages in between with 561 voters polled.

According to the age of likely voters there were more people polled who would vote for John Kasich.

My Poll's Voter Age-Total: 88 likely voters

I interviewed eleven voters between the ages of 18-29 and eight of them (72 percent) favored John Kasich over Ted Strickland. This is in contrast with the University of Cincinnati poll where 51 percent favored Strickland.

My number for the age group of 30-64 was also split about the same as the larger poll. Out of the 57 voters polled, 27 liked Strickland (47 percent) and 30 liked Kasich (53 percent).

In the age group 65 and over Strickland is in the lead with 15 out of the 20 people polled in this age group. Strickland (75 percent) leads Kasich (25 percent) by a much larger amount.

Pat Miller, 68, was one of the few older voters who will be voting for Kasich, "We need to kick everyone who is in office now, out." This was the mantra last month but it seems with the current poll numbers some people are rethinking that idea.

Can Ohio voters believe the pre-election polls? With such a narrow margin between the two candidates, the answer is a definite "no". Right now Ohio's Governor race is going to come down to who shows up to vote.

Sources:

Personal Polling October 22-26, 2010

September Poll

Plain Dealer

Rasmussen poll