Ohio Presidential Polls Continue to Show a Tight Race

Most experts predicted that the state of Ohio would once again prove to be a hotly contested battleground state in 2008, and that is most certainly coming to fruition. Both the McCain and Obama campaigns feel good about their current status in the state, but both campaigns understand that things are very tight. The presidential polls in Ohio have stayed with the theme of a very tight race, although some of the individual results have been substantially different. A poll released today from Suffolk University shows Obama with a 9-point lead, while a poll released today from Rasmussen Reports shows John McCain with a 2-point lead.

Obviously one of these two firms has it wrong at this point, but there is no way to decipher right now which of these is the outlier. The best way to gauge the overall status of the presidential polls in Ohio is by looking at an average of the most recent polls. The RealClearPolitics average currently shows Obama leading John McCain by 2.8% in the all important Buckeye state.

The presidential polling in Ohio brings some solid news for both campaigns. For the Obama campaign some of the recent polls in the state seem to be suggesting that his message is getting through to Ohio voters, which had been reluctant to support him initially. For the McCain campaign they can feel pretty good about the fact that he is only down on average 2.8% in this state when most national polls show him trailing by 6 or 7 points.

One thing to keep an eye on in the coming weeks is what part of Ohio each campaign targets. The Obama campaign has made it a point to hold rallies in traditionally republican areas, hoping to bring over some moderate republicans and independents. The McCain campaign has stuck with the more typical brand of generally holding their rallies in areas that are strongly republican and trying to get the people who come to their rallies to spread the message to moderates. I would expect that in the final two weeks both campaigns will return to a more typical campaign strategy of getting out the vote in the areas that are most important to them.

Living in the Columbus area I feel quite certain that at least one of the candidate will be making another stop in this area sometime before the election. Central Ohio is such a key area in the state that both campaigns understand they must pay close attention to it. I expect the Obama campaign to work very hard at getting out the vote among the younger voters and the McCain campaign to work hard at getting out the vote among the rural conservative voters.

The presidential polls in Ohio confirm what most on the ground here in Ohio feel as well, the electorate of this state is extremely divided as to exactly who could best lead our country out of its current problems. The message from the polls in Ohio is this, expect a nail biter on election night.