On the Eve of the Aussie Open, is it Too Soon to Worry About Rafa?

Rafa lost in the semifinals of Qatar to Gael Monfils. It wasn't an awful loss, per se, though it was in straight sets (6-3 6-4). He was not blown off the court, but the outcome also never seemed to be in doubt. This result could be worrisome to Rafa's team for his chances at the upcoming Aussie Open.

Yes he is playing with a new heavier racquet. Yes he is still tired from an extremely short off-season. Yes he is still maybe a bit mentally rundown from his finals losses of last season. But this loss to Monfils, aka Flava Flav, doesn't bode well for the strategic mindset Rafa will need for the year's first major.

When Rafa is in his best form, he's "hitting out" with pace and depth. The balls land deep with ferocious spin. THAT is what makes his shots so difficult to counter. That is what greets him over his rivals...especially Federer and his single-handed backhand. Djokovic handles it better because of his two-hander, but it still makes him work pretty hard to do so.

Against Monfils there was not an awful lot of pace or depth to be seen on his shots, however. Rafa was hitting balls that were moderately high and short…perfect for Monfils to execute the shot-making he loves so much. Granted it was only a best 2 of 3 set match, the kind of match where a guy like Monfils can go for broke and thrive. In a slam match that is 3 of 5, it's a lot tougher ask for Gael if he has to produce those shots over the long haul. Especially against guys like Rafa or Novak.

Still, Rafa had no depth or zing on his shots and was made to pay for it. And when the shots came flying back from Monfils' racquet, he had no answer. Moreover, he looked tired. And that is what should be worrisome to Rafa and his team.

The courts in Melbourne don't reward his ball as well as some of the others because of his spin. It rewards guys who can hit through the ball flatter with pace: like Tsonga, Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Del Potro and even Ferrer. When Rafa won the title 2009 title, he was forced to spend an ungodly amount of time on court to beat Fernando Verdasco in the semis and Roger Federer in the final. He can ill afford to start the tournament feeling a bit tired AND fighting a shoulder injury, all while getting comfortable with his new racquet.

Rafa is an amazing athlete, but one who definitely has his limits. Let's hope that his limit hasn't been reached so soon in the new season.